10 July 2007

Moderation Just Around the Corner?

"The fate of and fight for control over Iraq's oil is the same [as the fate of and fight] for the country itself"
--Vide Infra

Slogger City managed to find something about "Iraq" in the press of Brave New Baghdád yesterday:

According to al-Mada and Az-Zaman, the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani stated that the “alliance of the moderates” will be announced soon, and that political efforts are ongoing to secure the Islamic Party on the side of the “alliance.” Despite the fact that the Islamic Party holds few seats in the parliament, the presence of a Sunni party is perceived as essential by Talabani and Maliki, in order to bestow upon the alliance a “trans-sectarian” character.

Talabani also announced, in a press conference, that the ministers representing the Sunni Accord front will resume their functions in the government. The Accord front, representing the largest Sunni bloc in the parliament, had suspended the participation of its ministers and deputies in the cabinet and the parliament in protest over the ousting of the Sunni Speaker and the prosecution of a Sunni minister who was accused of being involved in political assassinations and other criminal acts.


Before the invasionites break out the champagne at Rancho Crawford, and the Sunni Internationals their fizzy date soda at London, there are a few discouraging words to be said about certain clouds that accompany the silver lining:

(1) It's not all that much of a silver lining, that is to say, triumph of invasion-based neojournalism, that local yokels should be able to report press conferences conducted in "their" own "capital."

(2) The amateurs' report actually contains nothing that the professionals of the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust could not have managed as well from a couple of time zones away.

(3) The snippet itself follows eight paragraphs of AAPT material and occupies the lowest place at table. The AAPT is represented in Tuesday's summatorial by al-Quds al-‘Arabí and al-Hayát and by Slogger City's usual primary source, the Estuary Arabic edition of The Times of Bazzázístán Inside the snippet proper, "al-Zamán" could conceivably refer to the subsidiary Tigris River City edition. Perhaps that is even more likely: the UK Bazzázístánís must possess more reliable sources for the Accord Front than M. Jalál Tálebání of the Free Kurds. On the other hand, the reading of the quasipresident's mind -- "the presence of a Sunni party is perceived as essential ... in order to bestow upon the alliance a 'trans-sectarian' character" -- must have been already editorial before it was summatorialized. Such a two cents' worth as that, though possible at New Baghdad, would be even safer from exile. Not that it matters much either way.

(4) The JCIA, Juan Cole Intelligence Agency, in its own summatorial of this date offers the following from an unevaluated invasion-language source :

Ben Lando reports that the petroleum bill in parliament is facing nearly universal opposition from a wide range of political groups. He says, "The Sadr Movement and the Iraqi Accord Front now say they may end the boycott specifically to challenge the law. The former held mass rallies over the weekend in opposition to Maliki. IAF says it will call for a vote of no confidence in him." So, the Bush administration, in pressing so hard for the petroleum bill, has only managed to stir up a lot of opposition. Even the boycotting parties are willing to suspend their boycott long enough to vote against it!


Mr. Lando belongs to the UPI, which belongs to the Rev. Moon, an affiliation which makes his stuff fishy over and above the inevitable cartoonishness of any thought originally thought about "Iraq" in English. Still, for what's it not worth,

U.S. President Bush may be right: Iraq's oil law, although highly controversial, could be a "benchmark for reconciliation." When Iraq's council of ministers last week suddenly approved the law, critics of various stripes united in opposition. Shiite and Sunni political parties alike denounced it, vowed to defeat it, even threatened to ensure Parliament can't take it up. It is seen by some as weakening the central government and giving too much to foreign companies. (...) In the midst of a war zone of more than four years old, the Bush administration itself could be the most divisive agent. And, it's the White House's support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's administration, as well as the heavy pressure on it to pass the oil law, that could draw together the fractured country.

The fate of and fight for control over Iraq's oil is the same for the country itself. At issue is to what extent the federal government, as stewards of Iraq as a whole, will decide oil policy.


Fishy indeed is Dr. Ben Lando: in addition to being funded from ChristoKorea, he is billed as "UPI Energy Correspondent" and yet plainly wants to shape his corporation's customers' minds about the politics of Crawford and New Baghdad. Doubtless there exists a certain point of view from which it looks axiomatic that control of "the country itself" is indistinguishable from control of the fossil fuel underneath the GOP's semiconquered provinces. Mere natives are unlikely to agree, however, and even militant Republicans of the extractionist tribe would probably prefer that their greedy schemes be hushed up rather than brazenly paraded.

Prof. Cole doubtless liked this guy's sarcasms at the expense of George XLIII and did not consciously intend to associate himself with the Lando Axiom.

As an observer of Green Zone collaborationist politics, Dr. Lambo's credentials are improbable and almost remote as Luna, yet his remarks are not without a certain logic. If the only thing that really matters about Peaceful Freedumbia is how much crude oil it pumps, it would be much more convenient to forget about all that tedious "federalism" jazz and get started actually pumpin' some. The more schizophobic indigs therefore appeal to him, whether TwentyPercenters or Sadrists. Rather unfortunately, they dislike the yoke of Crawford as much as they dislike the obscene and evil notion of partitioning "Iraq." Nevertheless, anybody who takes the Lando Axiom with full attention and seriousness is bound to conclude that getting the petroleum out even trumps letting GOP military forces remain forever. A fortiori the Axiom trumps poor M. al-Málikí's narrow sectarian agenda and forbids Landovians to take any interest in the "sovereignty" and "independence" and "democracy" and "constitutionality" of the current neorégime. [1] These things, too, are irrelevant rubbish that must be swept out of the way as rapidly as possible.

Mazout d'abord! [2].

Meanwhile, back at Slogger City, the supposedly promised Málikí-Tálebání brand of "moderation" could make a deal with the Landovians, I suppose. Pretty well any future neorégime imaginable, including an "Islamic State of Iraq" and a Pipesovitchian pro-democracy Strong Man as well as less displeasing arrangements, would have to sell the gunky black stuff to somebody. Presumably. Everybody always talks that way, do they not?

It's rather a pity, though, that there do not be any of Crawford's neo-Iraqi subjects who take the exact flip side of Dr. Lando's admirably single-minded stance, defining their own "Iraq" as a success or failure simply in terms of oil production numbers, without wasting any time on politics, and editorials. and summatorials, and "federalism," and "sectarianism," and Dr. R. Visser's mystical vicarious Unitarian Nationalism, and the Safavid Menace, and ... and so on and so forth.

"Why can't those short-sighted indigs grasp that the only reason they need to exist at all is Pumpin' Oil?"

I'm afraid I don't care for the Landovian or ChristoKorean perspective all that much, really, apart from the Kirkegaard-worthy singlemidedness of it. Any competent rhetor could turn most neo-Iraqi subjects against it with ease, including those particular crews of native pols that Dr. Lando likes best and perhaps hopes to help empower. Even they will not be thinking that "moderation" means caring for nothing but petroleum, just as they will never really comply with Republican Party extremism's notion of "moderation," the one that centralizes savin' the face of Grant's Old Party and vindicatin' the dogma of Preëmptive Retaliation.

Both these moderation products have their diverse points of merit, perhaps, yet they are not the sort of merits likely to gain a large market share out in Peaceful Freedumbia. By and large, the selfish and ungrateful beasts think only of their own concerns, and cannot exalt themselves to the level of these more global wonders. That is to say, they are exactly on a par with invasion-basers and petroleum-lovers, for whom the only question that ever really matters is "Now, what can you do for me?"

Perhaps some sort of moderation could be erected on that unpromising foundation by very skillful political architects, but given the imbecile hands that US aggression and occupation policy is actually in at the moment, the "moderation" of A always winds up demandin' an impossible degree of altruism or masochism from B. Such is the case also amongst the GZ collaborationist pols and the theocommunities that they represent, although it is a bit less true of the Free Kurds, who mostly want only to be left alone, than of the TwentyPercenters and the rootless cosmopolitans and the majoritarian Twelvers. And of course if the neighbors are to be dragged into it, the Sunnintern and the Qommies and the Kurdophobe Turks and the Jewish Statists are quite as bad as anybody else in sight.

One begs pardon of God.


___
[1] Naturally Dr. Lando must have calculated that dispensing with the presence of armed paleface Republicans will not produce such chaos and disorder in the former Iraq as to render getting the oil out impossible or prohibitively expensive. Either that, or he takes for granted that the invasion-basers are goin' to hafta go away soon no matter what.

Probably the latter guess is better, since outside Wingnut City and Rio Limbaugh and the Oval Office, that sort of treasonous defeatism may pass for conventional wisdom nowadays. Dr. Lando's credentials for discussing the violence profession or exploring the more esoteric mysteries of Crawfordology are likely to be no better than his credentials as a Levantine area student, so to guess that he takes commonplace positions on all such minor and peripheral questions is plausible enough.

He may even -- this is rash speculation, admittedly -- be attempting to some extent, consciously or unconsciously, to ingratiate himself in advance with the sixth Green Zone neorégime, the one after poor M. al-Málikí's. Should his calculations work out ideally, it will do him no harm at all to be able to remind the Quasiminister of Petroleum in that government-to-come that in July 2007 he wrote

Despite sharing two key tenets of the war on terrorism, the United States isn't supporting the coalition [of Sunnis and Sadrists and centralists generally].

State Department Iraq Coordinator David Satterfield, answering questions in March about what has been self-termed the "National Salvation Government," vowed support for Maliki's government. "It is not helpful to talk about alternatives," he said.

But alternatives may force themselves into the conversation, especially on the heels of the oil law.




[2] "Crude oil," don't you know?

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