31 July 2007

"I Give You Our Party, Gentlemen, Wrong or Right!"

Our Party, Wrong, seems tolerably firmly seated in the saddle just at the moment:

The key and overwhelming reason voters prefer Clinton to Obama is that they believe she has more experience.


Of course if "experience" is to be the crux, we donkeys should have voted for John Quincy Adams in 1828 and thus never have become proper donkeys in the first place. Obviously we ought to have reëlected Taft in 1912, rather than let that crackpot academic in! 1932 was perhaps rather different: Dr. Hoover may retain the title of "Most Experienced American Pol Even" even as of August 2007, but he displayed, or was perceived as displaying, a singular unwillingness to learn from his multifarious experiences how to handle radical and displeasing novelty. And thus FDR snuck in somehow.

1932 still seems to be the beginning of political Modern Times to me, but perhaps the average polled donkey voter is so much younger than I that she thinks of FDR much as I think of Grover Cleveland? More likely she doesn't ever think of FDR at all and possesses no notion of him comparable to what Richard Hofstadter and Alan Nevis have furnished me with about our Grover.

Well, OK, sure, Change and Decay!, that was bound to happen sooner or later. Now that it has happened, though, I wonder exactly what date the special friends of Mizz Hillary and of "experience" in 2007 date their own donkeydom back to. Truman? JFK? LBJ? Jimmy Crater, even?

Probably Truman. Almost certainly Truman!

And that's rather fun, not only because the militant extremist Republicans want to appropriate HST to themselves, but because HST possessed even less antecedent "experience" in April 1945 of the special sort now demanded than the "naive and irresponsible" Senator from Illinois has in August 2007. Knowing how to be a successful machine pol in Kansas City is no doubt all very well in its way -- and let no donkey say a word against its way! --, but does that way automatically make one a predestined Tamer of Stalins?

What HST actually did, of course, was to assemble probably the most distinguished Cabinet (and kitchen cabinet) in all America's recorded annals and then mostly defer to their "experience" rather than rely upon his own. Was that an excellent plan in general, one for all donkey posterity to be edified and guided by forever, or did our Harry just accidentally luck out, expert-advicewise? Myself, I really dunno, one can read the tea leaves either way, especially considering what JFK subsequently let himself in for expert-advicewise with Sec. MacNamara and Sec. Rusk and others.

All that's as may be, at the moment the great thing is to notice that Mizz Hillary utterly ain't Harry Truman and that she shows not the slightest signs of proposing to trumanize. The "experience" in question is to be strictly Her Ladyship's individual own, unless maybe St. Bill counts for a little bit too at times. And 56% (as opposed to 37%) of us donkeys account Her Ladyship's unilateral and preëmptive "experience" the very thing required to set America right after the Crawford derailment! Not among them am I, for Lady Rodham is far too much like the other crew's current fruit for my 37% palate. To be sure, George XLIII does not fall back upon any mere Rodhamite personal "experience," of which he hadn't any at all before January 2001, but upon his Yale-and-Jesus-instructed gut feelin's. All the same, it's much the same spinach to me. (What's to say about that shtik, really, after one says "Yuck! It's spinach."?)

Turning to the per contra, I can't see how the "naive and irresponsible" Barak Obama could lose (for campaign purposes) by trumanizing explicitly, by expressly undertaking to be guided by all the Guidance and Wisdom available, the collective wisdom of us all, rather than flying solo as Her Ladyship obviously wants to, and as the GOP's Little Brother has, so very disastrously for his Uncle Sam, always flown solo.

Yet should the campaign be successful on that basis and culminate in "President Obama," it might not make much difference, at least as regards Uncle Sam's aggression and occupation policy. "President Obama" would immediately repair to Brookings and the CFR for top-notch wisdom and guidance, and there he'd be preached the usual bipartisan and credibilitarian (and sadly spinach-infested, me judice) sermons about Responsible Nonwithdrawal from the former Iraq, and then go on to doings not unlike what we'd get from "President Rodham" or "President Giuliani."

Wirklich wir leben in finsteren Zeiten! (But still, it's kinda fun to be alive to watch the show.)

Miss Rand's Iraq

Why not we look on the bright side? The Boy-'n'-Party quagmire need not be regarded as a blood-sodden wasteland of bigmanagerial incompetence, or at least not considered exclusively under that aspect. If only one starts with the right principles, one can consider the happy Land of Peace and Freedom (as it is right this minute) to be an achievement, not a botch.

The principles of those who shoot and bomb armed agents of the GOP as often as they can do not lend themselves to the exercise, however. The present state of the former Iraq is quite as unsatisfactory to them as to the Rancho Crawford mob: the Sunni Ascendancy has not been restored, and the Caliphate to come (which only some of the shootists crave, though all insist on the Ascendancy) has certainly not arrived yet. To be satisfied with the quagmire as it sogs means that one would prefer that these bad Twentypercenter ideas were not implemented, and equally that aggression should not pay for Republican Party extremism.

At this point there is a temptation to cheat by inventing a set of quagmire-friendly principles, some supposedly general rule that would never have entered one's head except in order to derive one particular application of it. During Secretary MacNamara's War, for instance, some amateur geopoliticians discovered that Commandment XI reads "Thou shalt not fight in another's civil war." That brainstorm was perverse as well as illogical, for where would the holy Homeland be now without M. de Lafayette and General de Rochambeau (and a few thousand untitled assistants)?[1]

So, then, one could consider the Sunni Ascendancy as constituting a subspecies of aggression and therefore to be condemned by the same criterion that condemns illegal forcible entry into other people's countries by the militant extremist GOP. On that basis one might relish the quagmire morally because it shows that "Aggression Doesn't Work!", or at least that sometimes it doesn't. To ascend to a higher level and relish it politically also would be problematical. One must lose at least a few points for allowing oneself to be perceived as happy enough that the former Iraq should be victimized indefinitely by a Sunni-Bushie struggle in order to point the anti-aggression moral and thus adorn one's tale. (Adorning the tale with parallels between the vigilante cowpokers and the resistance / insurgency / terrorism / guerrilla is easy enough, as for instance, both teams are afflicted with faith-crazies, and both take fathomlessly for granted that they are Natural Masters, endowed with a mastery that vote counting must never be allowed to impede.)

Yet the whole business remains shaky, for one did not in fact equate domestic tyranny with international aggression before just this minute. Obviously the two tend to travel together. It's certainly not an accident that the same perps who marched into Mesopotamia uninvited and strictly self-credentialled should be eager to snatch unheard-of powers of domestic surveillance and control for Boy and Party too. Or conversely, that the Ba‘thís extended their repertory from oppression at home to snatch-and-grab against their immediate neighbors. Nevertheless, tyranny is one thing and aggression another. Everybody talks that way, and everybody is quite right. To pretend that one's principles require one to talk differently is humbug, rather like announcing that better prenatal care is a matter of national defense. Naturally everybody wants strong and healthy Hessians, so there really is a connection, but trying to pass connection off as identity is unworthy of a rational creature.

At a less grandiose level, those who genuinely believe in the "Roach Motel" paradigm of the former Iraq ought to be gratified with the way things have been goin'. (I'm not sure that any such Kiddie Krusaders really exist, but certainly that line has been talked.) Should Dr. Gen. Petraeus attain an authentic Success and Victory for Boy and Party, then the motel would be closed down and very likely the roaches would all go infest Kansas City instead of New Baghdád. Wouldn't want that to happen!

==

But the obvious folks with preëxisting general principles that should lead them to rejoice in the spectacle of Peaceful Freedumbia just exactly as it stands now live on Planet Dilbert and call themselves "libertarians." (As a minor epicycle to them, there is the National Rifle Association: the former Iraq has got to be the Promised Land of gun noncontrol!) The good folks at Slogger City have a real treat for the devotees of Miss Rand of Petrograd and Mr. Nozick of Harvard this morning:

The Lebanese al-Akhbar daily reported that a “semi-official” autonomous government was announced yesterday in Southern Iraq. The paper said that “over 40 tribal chiefs from the provinces of Basra, Nasiriya, Amara and Samawa” have signed an agreement announcing the birth of a “self-ruling government” in the Shi'a-dominated southern provinces; and released a statement signed by “the administration of the autonomous government of the South.”

The new “government” elected ‘Abd al-Muhsin al-Shalash at its helm, and announced its commitment to the Iraqi constitution “at the present time,” adding that the “government” intends to amend the constitution in the future.

The newspaper did not add further details regarding the local support to the new council, or whether the founders of the “autonomous government” have links with the major political parties. But al-Akhbar pointed [out] that the current constitution allows an Iraqi province (or a number of provinces) to form a “region,” which, if approved by a popular referendum, would be acknowledged by the government and would be granted a large measure of autonomy, including a regional government and parliament. The paper said that the founding of the “autonomous government” may be a first step in entrenching “Iraqi federalism ... which, is (currently) applied solely in the Kurdistan Region.”


Golly, Mr. Bones, a semi-official autonomous self-ruling government of the South! Who'd 'a' thunka that? [2]

Whole-hog Nozickians and Randites will not be entirely happy with the Baní Shallásh, I daresay. "[C]ommitment to the Iraqi constitution 'at the present time'" falls well short of "Smash the State!" On the other hand, have the principles of Planet Dilbert ever been put into terrestrial practice to the same extent elsewhere? If so, I do not recall the instance.

The Baní Shallásh are a bit more dilbertarian than the newspaper lets on, because they are "committed" to the Khalílzád Konstitution after a fashion that is thoroughly unkonstitutional, there being no provision in the Great Charter of Peaceful Freedumbia for behaving as they have behaved. As often, parallels between Ancient Poland and the brave new former Iraq come to mind, especially in conjunction with the Planet Dilbert side of the bushogenic bog. Are the Baní Shallásh not much like what the lovers and practitioners of zlota wolnosc used to call a "confederation," konfederacja?[3]

To make the parallel perfect, these unwitting (?) fans of Poland-the-Model and Planet Dilbert will have to defend their self-ruling semiofficial autonomy with the sword and the Kalashnikov. They wouldn't have to win, but they would have to fight, and thus the question of how much popular support they have becomes urgent, whether support be connected with major political parties or not.[4]


___
[1] That dottiness might make a come-back considering the state of the aggression, although I have yet to see it stated clearly. Perhaps it had some slight influence on the subconscious mind of the invasionites, however, who long resisted anybody referring to "civil war" when contemplating their Party's quagmire. However it is more likely that the bozos rejected the phrase instantly just for soundin' like bad news and castin' doubts on the quality of their bigmanagement.

Ms. Conventional Wisdom's distinction of "insurgency" from "civil war" does not apply very well to either the former Iraq or the former South Vietnam, but as regards the bumpersticker there is no difference of any importance. If you are gung-ho for invasions and occupations, you don't primarily rely on either phrase, you thunder against Global Terrorism instead. (Against International Communism, in the Indochina case.)

Only a universal menace can make the dogma of Preëmptive Retaliation plausible nowadays, in rulin' circles at least. The Party base-and-vile at Rio Limbaugh are another matter, for it is clear that some of them still think like Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg (BH came as close to being a GOP extremist as any mere foreigner can): aggression into Belgium in 1914 was permissible as preëmptive retaliation against a threat to the holy Homeland without there being any need to pretend that it was a threat to Belgium (or to all the world) as well. Like the Right of Conquest, that attitude became decidedly unfashionable in the course of Century XX. We might consider bringing them both back, because all the ill effects happen anyway, only with a lot of pious Pharasaism and tedious twistification tacked on as camouflage.


[2] Perhaps the Jefferson Davis neorégime would have flourished better than it did had it aspired to be only a semi-official autonomous government of the South?


[3] The best write-up of the palaeo-Polonian quagmire in English occurs in a preface to the Everyman edition of Pan Tadeusz. In short, the nie pozwalam! made it impossible for the official government to get anything done, and thus there had to be semi-official self-ruling autonomous governments as well, "confederations" in which policy could be decreed by a majority rather than a total unanimity. The policy decreed had then to be imposed upon the whole Commonwealth by force. All of this was considered by the writer to happen within the (unwritten) Polish Constitution rather than outside it.

Peaceful Freedumbia with Zalmáy's tripe and baloney written down is not 100% parallel, but in practice things were often so quagmirish in Poland and Lithuania than even an extremist Republican might recognize the resemblance. On the other hand, the anarchy was entirely indigenous, there is no figure in the annals of Poland equivalent to Khalílzád Pasha imposing the anarchy for utterly exogenous reasons of Boy and Party.


[4] I'm too lazy to describe the Planet Dilbert side of the former Iraq in detail at the moment, but surely Randites and Nozickians cannot have failed to notice and applaud the approximation to "competing governments" involved in the rise of the Sadr Tendency and, indeed, in the phenomenon of the Lebanese God Party as well. As with the Baní Shallásh, there are various admixtures of "sectarianism" and the like in the Rev. Muqtadá and the Rev. Fadlalláh that St. Petersburg or Harvard Yard purists are bound to deplore. They ought to consider, in my opinion, that their cup of bliss is half full rather than half empty. Planet Dilbert is after all very far removed from Planet Earth, and to expect an instant and total conversion of muddled earthlings to the True Antistatist Faith is not only impatient and hasty, but positively unreasonable.

On the other hand, if they prefer to be gloomy Gusses about it, they are not without grounds to adduce:

(1) The promising potentialies in the former Iraq would not exist at all except for the exertions of that particular Wicked State that is ruled from Crawford TX. Congressman Dr. Ron Paul, also of TX as well as of Planet Dilbert, is well aware of this angle.

(2) It seems undeniable that a great many muddled earthlings, especially in Greater Texas, recidivated seriously from the True Antistatist Faith on the occasion of the Pentagon/WTC attacks and will now require to be reconverted.

How this second setback is accounted for on Planet Dilbert, I have not inquired. My own amateur speculation would be, first, that "Smash the State!" and "Smash the Terrorists!" are emotionally equivalent and, secondly, that most of the strayed catechumens had never advanced to a rational rather than sentimental apprehension of the True Antistatist Faith. Dilbertarianism is an extremely high-and-dry acquired taste for most muddled earthlings, so it is not a great surprise to me that many of the former faithful should defect from Glenlivet to Mogen David, as it were.

30 July 2007

Around The Bend With Muscle Mike

Grand Ayatollah Mikey Bin Ledeen has fulminated yet another fatwá against the rest of the Boy-'n'-Party crew, who are too dumb to make out who they ought to be bombin'. Big Brother and poor M. al-Málikí are all palsy-walsy as far as the former is concerned, exchangin' deepthink about God and Leadership and other such lofty sublimities. How can an Ivy League alumnus, nay, an MBA of the Harvard Victory School!, fail to see that he is bein' take in by a con man who is backed by Ultimate Evil?

It is also undoubtedly true that Maliki is widely viewed — by Iraqis of various sectarian labels — as an often excessively enthusiastic ally of Iran. This is no surprise, since his Dawa party evolved from an infamous Iranian-backed terrorist group of the same name.


How can it be that George XLIII of Kennebunkport-Crawford has missed that undoubted truth? You don't have to answer, though, because His Eminence has already worked what's wrong. Little Brother does not pay enough attention to the local press in his colonies:

General Petraeus’s job is constantly made even more difficult by the actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and often in ways reported — so far as I know — by the local (that is, Iraqi and other regional) media.[1] Take last week, for example, when a major powwow among the Iraqi political leaders was abruptly terminated. It had been expected that the usual suspects, ranging from Kurds to Sunnis and Shiites, would meet in Baghdad to sort out their disagreements about ways to amend the Constitution, distribute oil wealth, and so forth. Everyone from Moqtadah al Sadr to ex-PM Iyad Allawi was going to come. Prime Minister Maliki was under great pressure from Washington and from Petraeus to make some political progress to match the military successes of recent months, and hopes were fairly high that something worthwhile would come out of the talks. But, according to Az-Zaman:

the breakdown occurred when the Iranian government “officially” requested that ex-Prime Minister Iyad 'Allawi be excluded from the talks, a request that was rejected by the Sunni IAF. As a result, the paper added, Kurdish leader Mas'ud al-Barazani may no longer travel to Baghdad, as was expected, to participate in the dialogue.

Now Az-Zaman is just a local paper, and even the best paper gets it wrong, so this assertion may well be wrong in one detail or another.


Now of course the Times of Bazzázistán is in no useful sense a local fishwrap native to brave New Baghdád, it's only a recent acquisition of, or accession to, the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust, a "pan-Arab" organ of the Intergalactic Sunnintern. Since Ayatollah Bin Ledeen takes money from customers of tertiary education for knowin' all about the Greater Levant, the chances that he does not know this fact are zero. But why should he mention it, or even allude to it (except maybe by that odd tutorial shuffle of his about how the one particular extract might conceivably be impugned,), when Ledeenianity and the Sunnintern happen to agree? The great thing is to see the Qommie Menace clearly and distinctly and then be scared [w]itless. Perhaps the AAPT doesn't see quite exactly what His Eminence sees when they gaze at the black dawnin' in the East, but so what? They're obviously terrorized of it and they hate the Safavid monsters who put them in fear, and that's quite enough to be gettin' on with. Obviously the urgent task is to make Little Brother and the GOP geniuses and perhaps also the Big Party base-and-vile as terrorized of and venomous against as the Sunnintern already is! "Details can be sorted out afterwards, people, please. Qommies are worse than Nazis, after all! Would FDR and Stalin and Churchill have hesitated to accept the (significant) aid of anti-Hitlerites in 1942 just because their primary reason for fear and hatred of Adolf was the man's Satanic vegetarianism? [2]"

And yet Little Brother seems not to agree with Chicken Little and Ayatollah Bin Ledeen about the Qommie Menace! He's now actually talkin' to 'em, sort of, by way of Proconsul Crocker! Day by day, Little Brother shows more and more signs of lapsin' wholesale into the Hambaker or ISG heresies. In that case, why not Little Brother just resigns, plus Oilslick Dick too, and then poor Sam's Executive Branch is handed over to a "bipartisan foreign policy élite" that wants to coddle Ultimate Evil and cuddle up with Qommies?

So far, so good, but Mikey Cardinal Ledeen does not exactly see eye-to-eye with the Intergalactic Sunnintern about the former Iraq:

Thus, in a paradoxical way, our mounting success on the battlefield makes political compromise more difficult for Iraqi leaders, because the Iranian gorilla is in the conference room even though he does not appear in the official accounts. And that gorilla is prepared to smash all the furniture if he does not get his way. At the moment, things are going badly for him and his terrorist friends, and the gorilla is doing everything he can to prevent his losses from being institutionalized.

It appears that the Anbar model is spreading to other regions, and involving Shiites as well as Sunnis. Notice, please, that the Anbar pacification involves Sunnis fighting against other Sunnis, and in other areas we have Shiites fighting against other Shiites. This will surprise only those State Department, academic, and CIA “experts” who have so vociferously insisted that conflict in Iraq is invariably ethnic. It will not surprise those who have spent time in Iraq, and noticed the remarkably high rate of intermarriage between these two groups of theoretically irreconcilable enemies.


Little Mikey is a predestinate social-scientizer, obviously. I've spent about fifty-eight years (of 61) in the holy Heimatland myself without ever catching so much as a single direct glimpse of any "rate of intermarriage," high or low, -- and that no matter what MBL or anybody else means by "inter-" exactly. (My perceptual betters see things invisible to me, no doubt. Woe is me, I've never actually seen any "rate" at all with the naked eye! By Faith I believe that "rates" really do exist and really do matter, but if I was reduced to relying on mere Lockean Experience, well, who knows?)

Dr. Righteous Virtue, that berserker ideologue Viking somehow cast ashore in Gulf Coast Mesopotamia, would quite agree with little Mikey Bin Ledeen -- and ain't that about the strangest bedfellowship ever! "Theoretically irreconciliable enemies" was not a good way for little Mikey to word it, though, for who among us palefaces had any theories about the former Iraq before the militant extremist GOP rushed in to formerize everythin' in sight? Things change, and in the GOP's Peaceful Freedumbia change has been very, very rapid. Mikey himself says

Left to their own devices, the Iraqis would undoubtedly have made considerable progress toward national unity, and a representative government worthy of the name. But the Iraqis are not left alone, because the battle that is currently being waged in their country is part of a larger war, in which the most dangerous force is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until Iran is defeated, Iraqi leaders will always cater to the edicts coming from Tehran.


Here we arrive at a complete disjunction: little Mikey Bin Ledeen's private ideas of "a larger war" overlap scarcely at all with what the Big Party aggressors of March 2003 were aggressin' officially and on behalf of their Uncle Sam for. Had the GOP geniuses and their Party base-and-vile seen the world through 20/20 BinLedeenian lenses, they should have marched straight to Qom and Tehrán and bypassed Baghdád and Najaf. Once chop out the Heart of Darkness, and soon the veins of Darkness and the arteries of Darkness will cease to throb or matter. The GOP Kiddie Krusade should (as Ledeenianity now preaches -- possibly only retrospectively?) have gone straight for the Jugular of Darkness, not wasted even an instant of time or a smidgen of effort on mere capillaries of Darkness like former GOP ally Saddám Husayn.

Mr. Bones and I don't much care for either disputant in this intramural Wingnut City fratboy food fight between the Grand Ayatollah's "larger war" and the Big Management Party's "long war." We humble don't even want "smaller and shorter" than any crew of militant extremist neo-bozos want, what we want is utterly nothing more of THEIR sort at all. Plus it would be nice, though optional, to get rid of THEM personally as well.

But God knows best.[1]


___
[1] Short of His knowldge, how about Eddie Burke's?

"I flatter myself that I love a manly, moral, regulated liberty as well as any gentleman of that society, be he who he will; and perhaps I have given as good proofs of my attachment to that cause, in the whole course of my public conduct. I think I envy liberty as little as they do, to any other nation. But I cannot stand forward, and give praise or blame to anything which relates to human actions, and human concerns, on a simple view of the object, as it stands stripped of every relation, in all the nakedness and solitude of metaphysical abstraction. Circumstances (which with some gentlemen pass for nothing) give in reality to every political principle its distinguishing colour and discriminating effect. The circumstances are what render every civil and political scheme beneficial or noxious to mankind. Abstractedly speaking, government, as well as liberty, is good; yet could I, in common sense, ten years ago, have felicitated France on her enjoyment of a government (for she then had a government) without inquiry what the nature of that government was, or how it was administered? Can I now congratulate the same nation upon its freedom ? Is it because liberty in the abstract may be classed amongst the blessings of man-kind, that I am seriously to felicitate a madman, who has escaped from the protecting restraint and wholesome darkness of his cell, on his restoration to the enjoyment of light and liberty ? Am I to congratulate a highwayman and murderer, who has broke prison, upon the recovery of his natural rights? This would be to act over again the scene of the criminals condemned to the galleys, and their heroic deliverer the metaphysic knight of the sorrowful countenance."

Son of Guantánamo, or, Invasion-Based Jurisprudence

Republican Party militarism has outdone itself:

In a city plagued by suicide bombers and renegade[1] militias, the Americans and the Iraqi government have turned to an unusual measure to help implant the rule of law: they have erected a legal Green Zone, a heavily fortified compound to shelter judges and their families and secure the trials of some of the most dangerous suspects. The Rule of Law Complex, as it is known by the Iraqi government, is in the Baghdad neighborhood of Rusafa and held its first trial last month.


If this article were a fiction, one might complain that the euphemisms should have been reversed, with Son of Guantánamo called "the legal Green Zone" in Neoliberated South Semitic, and "the Rulalaw complex" in Party Chinese rather than vice versa.[2] But apart from that, it's esthetically perfect.

The set-up seems not to be practically perfect yet, though. The perps have still a long way to go with their own program:

The utility of the fortified complex, however, depends on more than a single high-profile case. Ultimately, it will depend on the Iraqis’ ability to expand their capacity to try cases at the complex as well as their track record in applying justice evenhandedly to Shiites and Sunnis alike. The notion of helping the Iraqis establish protected legal enclaves is an important element of the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq. The hope is that a network of legal complexes will be established in other parts of Iraq, starting with the capital of Anbar Province, Ramadi, where work is expected to begin in the next several months.


Let Congress and Televisionland think twice before cutting off this supralegal equivalent of Johnny Appleseed! If "we" don't uphold GOP military supremacy in the former Iraq for another decade or so, almost certainly the landscape of invasion will never become dotted with "protected legal complexes" at all. The indig politicians have their faults, admittedly, but at least they'd never have thought of anything as swell as this. If they were deprived untimely of PetraeoCrockerian guidance, they doubtless would not waste ten dinars on perpetuating it.[3] Like many imports associated with the paleface Party crusaders, this one is so alien that it might as well have come from Mars instead of from Greater Texas. No other (indigenous) state in the Greater Levant has anything the least bit like it. The new Johnny Appleseed might as well be scattering pineapple plants all across Alaska and the Yukon.

Still, "the utility of the fortified complex" cannot be evaluated until we decide what the gadget is supposed to do:

Since the court began hearing cases in June it has tried 43 suspects, a rate of about one suspect a day. (...) The Rusafa prison’s capacity, which started at 2,500, will expand by more than 5,000 by the end of the summer. The main detention building at Rusafa is cleaner and less malodorous than many Iraqis jails, but with 15 detainees in each cell the conditions had reached maximum capacity under international standards.


Five thousand kidnap victims and only forty-three trials? Surely what we have here is only a concentration camp with slightly unusual trimmin's?


The Boy-'n'-Party stumblebums are, I suppose, genuinely blind to how bad the Gitmo Gimmick makes them look. It throws up in everybody's face the fact that the GZ collaborationist pols they back do not control "their own" country, that the sixth occupation neorégime can neither protect its subjects' lives and property nor do justice among them, matters usually right at the top of lists of What Government Is Good For. (One strain of Republican Party extremism likes to pretend that government is no good at all, but Planet Dilbert cannot have had any hand in these doin's. Just ask Congressman R. Paul!) [4]








____
[1] Hmm. Do the employees of the New York Times Company know that this insult used to have a definite meaning?


[2] The underlying expression "Green Zone" has been officially purged from Party Chinese, as you'll perhaps remember. On the other hand, why should you remember? Few neocomrades, however loyal to Boy and Party, recall that they are supposed to speak of the fortified enclosure surrounding the Proconsular Palace of the Party as "the International Zone." One may speculate that this particular rectification of language has failed to catch on with the base-and-vile, and even most of the presiding GOP geniuses, because it would be a move towards accuracy. The seat of the Occupyin' Power and its native neorégime is undoubtedly international rather than Iraqi. Whether it is "green" in the sense of safe and secure is far more open to dispute.


[3] Was the Gitmo Gimmick really "an important element of the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker"? Did the Party of Original Intent originally intend this as part of its Ever-Victorious Surge of '07™? Consider that we have to do with a crew of stumblebums who retrospectively offered six dozen "real" reasons why they aggressed their way into the former Iraq, once the real "real" reason had became unworkable because Tony Blair's terror-tipped 45-minute-specials were concealed so cleverly that they've never yet come to light.

Might they not be up to their old tricks again? All indications are that the auditors will find a serious benchmark deficit in the Big Management Party's occupation accounts a couple of months from now. Perhaps they are tryin' to fadge up a few Potemkin benchmarks of their own to distract attention with, "But Dad, the report card wouldn't look half so bad if extracurricular activities counted too ...!"? A good many Democrats are likely to agree that the Gitmo Gimmick is indeed a swell idea, but hopefully they'll manage to notice that it is a distraction even so.

It was not a sufficiently important element in the Ever-Victorious Surge of '07™ to have been prominently mentioned before this morning. Whether it was mentioned unprominently somewhere, who knows? In any case, "the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker" is presumably not something written up in Party Chinese or PowerPoint and conveniently available in any one document. The EVS07 has been gettin' vaguer and vaguer ever since Rear Colonel F. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute first conceived it and explained it in meticulous detail to the readership of the Weekly Standard in about May 2006. Obviously what the perps are surgin' for, and what they are surgin' against, can change almost minute by minute, and this would have been the case even if benchmarks had never been invented.

In these circumstances it is natural enough that Boy and Party should rely so heavily on autoleakage as they have been doin' recently. If they don't tell us where they'd prefer the goalposts to be located today, we may fail to give them proper credit when K. Rove assures us that "we" just scored a touchdown. It won't do the PetraeoCrockerians any good to parade the Gitmo Gimmick in September to an audience that utterly never heard of such a thing, so clearly they had to invite Mr. Michael R. Gordon into their lair and hand him a press release about it at the end of July. As happened last week at the NYTC, the Rancho Crawford press release is reproduced more or less as is, though doubtless rearranged and reworded to taste. The only bit that might have been added runs as follows:

An Iraqi investigator at the Rusafa complex raised another concern: sectarian agendas at the Interior Ministry. The investigator, who cannot be identified under the complex’s security procedures, said ministry officials had made him the subject of an inquiry when he expressed his intention to marry a Sunni woman. “What kind of investigation is that?” he said with undisguised contempt.


(Not a hard question. It was a loyalty investigation, obviously, rather like what Joe McCarthy used to do.)

It seems more likely that some kind paleface colonel or general introduced Mr. Gordon to Ibn Fulán, Esq., however, since he is extremely ben trovato for Boy and Party on a slightly different propaganda front, not to mention being exactly the sort of neo-liberated they wish there were many more of, nominally a Twelver, but really a member of the rootless cosmopolitan theocommunity, a "secularist." The authors of the press release perhaps intended us to conclude that part of the niftiness of the Gitmo Gimmick is that it allows invasion-based Rulalaw to be untampered with by evil sectarian influences. Inside "protected legal complexes" one can practice Protected Law, as it were. Or perhaps it would be more accurate to speak of Protectorate Law.

Had Mr. Gordon cared to venture some investigative journalism, he might have tried to determine exactly how much influence the GZ quasiministry of justice actually has over what happens inside this cage. Or any other indigs, for that matter. The authors of the press release were, unsurprisingly, not much concerned about what sort of law it is that gets protected, although elements of Civil Law procedure briefly emerge from the murk:

Under Iraqi procedures, the main phase for recording evidence takes place before the trial when an investigative judge questions witnesses and prepares a report for the panel of judges to review. The trials themselves seem relatively brief to observers familiar with the American system. With the extensive security at Rusafa, it is not easy for Iraqis to attend the trials, so videotapes of the proceedings are made.


No doubt we were not intended to wonder exactly how relatively brief trials fit together with only one trial per day. Somebody seems not to be tryin' very hard! Yet of course if the concentration camp aspect is the cake and the production of couutroom video products only icin', everything makes sense, and the resemblance to the Big Party's Guantánamo Bay legal kangarooism becomes blatant.


[4] It seems unlikely that the stumblebums are applyin' the Leninist maxim about "The worse, the better" here, although in theory they might fortify their contention that the happy Land of Peace and Freedom is not to be abandoned any decade soon lest genocide break out in the wake of the GOP by pointin' out that without Party troops and Party barbed wire and Party videotape &c. &c., ordinary criminal justice cannot be carried on in it. Not even in the capital of it!


















In Baghdad, Justice Behind the Barricades
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Baghdad, July 26 — In a city plagued by suicide bombers and renegade militias, the Americans and the Iraqi government have turned to an unusual measure to help implant the rule of law: they have erected a legal Green Zone, a heavily fortified compound to shelter judges and their families and secure the trials of some of the most dangerous suspects.

The Rule of Law Complex, as it is known by the Iraqi government, is in the Baghdad neighborhood of Rusafa and held its first trial last month.

For Iraqi officials, working at the compound is so fraught with risk that it often requires separating themselves and their families from life outside the complex’s gates.

“Our work is really a challenge,” said a judge who lives in the compound with his wife and children and whose identity is protected by the court’s security procedures. “I have not seen Baghdad for three months.”

The court’s first defendant was a Syrian militant, Ramsi Ahmed Ismael Muhammed, known by the nom de guerre Abu Qatada. Tried on charges of kidnapping, killing his hostages and carrying out other bloody attacks, he was convicted in the complex’s high-surveillance courtroom and sentenced to death.

The utility of the fortified complex, however, depends on more than a single high-profile case. Ultimately, it will depend on the Iraqis’ ability to expand their capacity to try cases at the complex as well as their track record in applying justice evenhandedly to Shiites and Sunnis alike.

The notion of helping the Iraqis establish protected legal enclaves is an important element of the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq. The hope is that a network of legal complexes will be established in other parts of Iraq, starting with the capital of Anbar Province, Ramadi, where work is expected to begin in the next several months.

The Rusafa complex, across the Tigris River to the east of the government Green Zone in central Baghdad, is still in its early days. Since the court began hearing cases in June it has tried 43 suspects, a rate of about one suspect a day.

The United States provides criminal investigators, lawyers and a paralegal staff to train the Iraqis to run the complex, which also includes accommodations for witnesses, investigators, the Baghdad Police College and an expanding number of detainees. The 55-member American team includes Justice Department and military personnel as well as contractors, and there are only four Iraqi investigators.

But an additional 26 Iraqi investigators are being trained by the F.B.I., according to Michael F. Walther, a senior United States Justice Department official who runs the American military’s Law and Order Task Force. And by next March, the small courtroom where Abu Qatada was tried is to be replaced by an $11 million court built with American reconstruction funds.

The Central Criminal Court in Baghdad is expected to conduct about 5,000 trials this year. Col. Mark S. Martins, the staff judge advocate for General Petraeus’s military command, estimates that once the new Rusafa court is built the complex will be able to handle about one third of that caseload. The Iraqi government will take over the cost of protecting and operating the complex next month and has approved $49 million for the effort.

Despite its status as a protected area for trying Iraq’s most infamous terrorists and militants, the Rule of Law Complex is not immune from the many problems roiling Iraq’s legal system. They include the crush of detainees that has emerged with the surge of American and Iraqi military operations. To try to reduce the backlog of cases, detainees from overcrowded jails in Kadhimiya and elsewhere have been transported to Rusafa, where they are fingerprinted and given retina scans.

The Rusafa prison’s capacity, which started at 2,500, will expand by more than 5,000 by the end of the summer. The main detention building at Rusafa is cleaner and less malodorous than many Iraqis jails, but with 15 detainees in each cell the conditions had reached maximum capacity under international standards.

When a reporter was escorted by the Iraqi prison director through one of the newly erected tent-covered jails a short drive away, a detainee who gave his name as Dawood Yousef, 46, pressed his way to the bars and yelled that he had been picked up in a sweep of Abu Ghraib and had spent five months in various jails, including a month in Rusafa, without being told why he had been arrested or when his case would go to trial. Colonel Martins took down the details.

An Iraqi investigator at the Rusafa complex raised another concern: sectarian agendas at the Interior Ministry. The investigator, who cannot be identified under the complex’s security procedures, said ministry officials had made him the subject of an inquiry when he expressed his intention to marry a Sunni woman. “What kind of investigation is that?” he said with undisguised contempt.

Under Iraqi procedures, the main phase for recording evidence takes place before the trial when an investigative judge questions witnesses and prepares a report for the panel of judges to review. The trials themselves seem relatively brief to observers familiar with the American system. With the extensive security at Rusafa, it is not easy for Iraqis to attend the trials, so videotapes of the proceedings are made.

In a legal system that has relied heavily on confessions and less on forensic investigations at the crime scene, there are often allegations of torture. In a July 3 trial at the Rusafa court, the judges acquitted four defendants of murder and rape on the grounds that their confessions appeared coerced. Medical reports pointed to possible torture, and physical evidence was lacking. The stunned defendants received the verdict with enormous relief, according to a videotaped record of the trial.

The Americans say they have been encouraged by the tenacity with which the investigators pursued Abu Qatada, in particular. “We called him the wolf,” said a judge who was involved in investigating the case. “It was not easy to get him to talk.”

The investigators relied heavily on witnesses, who were taken through a special entrance in the court offices so they could be interviewed confidentially. Their statements were entered in a file that only the judges were allowed to read. The evidence in the file was enough to persuade the panel of three judges, one Sunni and two Shiites, to convict Abu Qatada on two counts: possessing weapons as part of an armed group opposing the state, which led to a 30-year sentence, and terrorist crimes, which were deemed a capital offense. His conviction and punishment are being appealed.

A more demanding test of the impartiality of the system will come soon when a Shiite national policeman comes to trial. Identified only as Lt. Col. A, he is being tried on charges that he assaulted and tortured dozens of Sunni captives in his custody on behalf of a Shiite militia.

29 July 2007

Agress! Invade!! Impose!!!

“The idea, as in Bosnia, is to maintain a united Iraq by decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group — Kurd, Sunni Arab and Shiite Arab — room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests,” Mr. Biden and Mr. Gelb wrote in their Op-Ed on May 1, 2006. “We could drive this in place with irresistible sweeteners for the Sunnis to join in, a plan designed by the military for withdrawing and redeploying American forces, and a regional nonaggression pact.”


Notice that the gruesome twosome take for granted that natives can be bribed as well as shoved around. "Irresistable sweeteners," forsooth!

28 July 2007

If You Can't Lick 'Em, ...

The other day Rear-Colonel Kaplan of Slate wrote up the Crawfordites' most recent self-serving about occupation strategy for the former Iraq, the one in which Dr. Gen. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton and his immediate circle of groupies prescinded from mere politics and dreamed about surgin' on into the summer of 2009. To a slight extent Kaplan was suckered, for he did not perceive, or did not mention perceiving, that such a press release would never have reached the New York Times except after passin' through Big Management censorship, and the reason this leakage got the nihil obstat was that the Dr. Gen. would get a more respectful hearing from the commentariat than would what's left of the chickenhawk aggression crew, say their Master Hadley or their Dr. Rice or their neo-SECDEF.

Château Kennebunkport, maybe even Castle Cheney, have been reduced to pretendin' that now at last they are goin'ta let the violence professionals make their aggression and occupation policies for them. They back off from their inveterate Bourbonism a little, having noticed that a Petraeus Plan has certain political advantages that a Gates Gimmick would lack, especially marketin'wise. In a sense this is logical enough from a depraved GOP point of view: they've long since given up carin' what kind of Success and Victory they obtain from wreckin' the former Iraq, PetraeoSuccess and PetraeoVictory would do as well as anythin' else, so far as regards their actual substance, provided, of course, that Congress and Televisionland can be persuaded that these products are the real thing and not just cheap fakes. The real difficulty, should PetraeoVictory improbably eventuate, would be the embarrassment to Big Management involved in the lowly hired hands actually accomplishin' what the executive OnePercenters spent years failin' at ignominiously. Possibly in that case the perps will admit the laurel-freighted Dr. Gen. into their executive suite, even without an MBA from the Harvard Victory School. After all, nobody who seriously disliked the extremist GOP would have taken the job that the Dr. Gen. took, fourth start or no fourth star. Over on the braniac side, the prospective Saviour of their Party does not seem to be quite in the Douglas MacArthur class, although it's not so clear that he realizes as much. There have been certain slight signs that the Dr. Gen. is already runnin' for the Republican presidential nomination, although to be fair, perhaps he has to talk that way just to keep Congress from pullin' the plug on all his paths of glory.

In any case, it will be obvious that I take the Dr. Gen. to be essentially a Party animal, whereas Rear-Colonel Kaplan evaluates him as a hired hand, by purely meritocratic and technocratic criteria, exactly as Château Kennebunkport wishes everybody to do. Kaplan's bottom line is curious, though scarcely Panglossian:

If the United States pulls out, Iraq's sectarian warfare would probably intensify. If the United States stays in and the surge continues, Iraqi violence might be contained, but 700 to 1,000 more American soldiers will probably die each year—and there will be only a one in 10 chance that the strategy will succeed (by rather minimal standards of success). So, this is the question: Is the price worth the gamble? Bush has put more chips on the table, fully aware of the odds. Will the members of Congress keep bankrolling him? How risk-prone are they? And, ultimately, how much risk will the American voters feel like swallowing when they go to the polls next fall?


Kaplan mostly borrows his non-verdict from a certain Neocomrade S. Biddle, one of the more rightist CFR gentry, whom Kaplan takes to be a sort of brain behind Dr. Gen. Braniac. Indeed, Biddle's brainstorms, as described, accord better with what the Dr. Gen. is actually doin' with all those chips than textbook MacNamario-Petraean neocounterinsurgency does. Perhaps we ought to have the neocomrade's own estimate of his ingenuities, which FK conveniently provides:

It is worth noting that Biddle himself has serious doubts about the whole notion. In his interview with Gwertzman, he said the odds that the surge and the new strategy might work—that is, that they might produce "something like stability and security in Iraq"—are "maybe one in 10." Whether those odds are worth gambling on, he said, depends on whether you're averse or prone to risk. Biddle described himself as risk-averse. Therefore, if the decision was up to him, he'd pull the troops out. President Bush, he said, "is clearly very tolerant of risk." And so he's pouring more in.


Here again I suspect that we are not dealing with pure hired-handedness, though Kaplan takes it all at face value. "I wouldn't bet at odds of ten-to-one," whispers the tipster, "but then I happen to be risk-averse." Could he perhaps anticipate that every red-blooded Greater Texan lad will despise such craven prudence and rush to make the bet in order to express his despite? If that's the Biddle diddle, it didn't work on stolid Fred Kaplan. But then FK obviously did not approach the analyst or con man with a completely open mind, having turned "something like stability and security in Iraq" into his own "succeed (by rather minimal standards of success)" without explaining what's so minimal about stability and security. [1]

Whatever editor headlined the piece "Interesting, But Doomed? Why Petraeus' intriguing new Iraq strategy will probably fail" may or may not have been putting even more risk-averse words into Rear-Colonel Kaplan's mouth than belong there. One chance in ten is perhaps not quite as bleak as "doomed," is it?

"Intriguing" is more interesting than "doomed," though. The Petraus Procedure or Biddle Diddle is indeed a "policy of intrigue," there is no doubt about that, but as to being particularly spell-bound by it, well, count me out. First, though, we need the latest news on what chips our betters are gamin' with here:

BAGHDAD, July 27 -- The U.S. military in Iraq is expanding its efforts to recruit and fund armed Sunni residents as local protection forces in order to improve security and promote reconciliation at the neighborhood level, according to senior U.S. commanders. Within the past month, the U.S. military command in charge of day-to-day operations in Iraq ordered subordinate units to step up creation of the local forces, authorizing commanders to pay the fighters with U.S. emergency funds, reward payments and other monies.

The initiative, which extends to all Iraqis, represents at least a temporary departure from the established U.S. policy of building formally trained security forces under the control of the Iraqi government. It also provokes fears within the Shiite-led government that the new Sunni groups will use their arms against it, commanders said. The goal is to put the new, irregular forces in place quickly -- hiring them on contracts and providing them with uniforms without waiting for access to lengthy police and army training programs.

The initiative arises out of efforts underway by some U.S. military units to enlist forces from local tribes as well as insurgent groups in different neighborhoods, most of which have been predominantly Sunni.


I.e., "If you can't lick 'em, bribe 'em!" All bribery is intrigue, I daresay, yet not all bribe schemes are "intriguing" in the cant journalistic sense. This sort of thing has happened far too often in American history for it to be pulse-stirring. Bribery schemes have even become a bit tiresome as regards the militant GOP's invasion and occupation policy for the former Iraq. It's even been around since before day one of the current caper, in the sense that certain statespersons who should have known better seem to have been talked into the Wolfowitzian fantasy that this aggression would be self-financin': not only would the jubilant neo-liberateds throw flowers at the armed Republican palefaces as soon as they showed up, they'd pump zillions of barrels of complimentary crude oil for them as well. It now appears that the real world does not work quite like that. ("O God, O Bernie Lewis, what went wrong?")

Even a comparative or former good guy like Prof. Dr. Juan Cole succumbed to visions of bribery inspired by all that oil that is allegedly their own to bribe the restless natives with. Just give the TwentyPercenters (whose lands are dry) a double share, and, hey presto! "security and stability." Politically absurd and probably illegal as well, to the extent there remains any legality in Peaceful Freedumbia, but even mere morality might ask questions about planmongering like that. However this is the USA, where pretty well everybody agrees that foreigners can always be bought.

Petraeus and Biddle at least abstain from buyin' natives with what they pick from the same natives' pockets. Exactly where their slush funds come from is not altogether clear: "U.S. emergency funds, reward payments and other monies"? Who is that pays the extremist GOP "reward money" for all its mischievements in the former Iraq? Or perhaps somebody pays up to prevent future mischievements undesirable to themselves? And "other monies," for Pete's sake! That's a blank check waved in the face of Congressional oversight like a red flag before a bull. Have Biddle and Petraeus been attendin' the Oliver North Academy of Creative Finance, perhaps? The ONACF MBA is not quite as prestigious as one from the Harvard Victory School, to be sure, but maybe sometimes more down-to-earth.

Still, we are assured it's all to be only a short-term expedient. Presumably Congress will swoon at the wonders achieved by the Ever-Victorious Surge of '07™ and vote the Crawfordites immunity and a ticker-tape parade retrospectively, on the model of Otto von Bismarck and the Prussian Landestag. Or so one presumes ten percent of the time with Neocomrade S. Biddle.

Not all intrigue is bribery, naturally. There's another species of it as well, one that poor M. al-Málikí seems alarmed about, "It also provokes fears within the Shiite-led government that the new Sunni groups will use their arms against it, commanders said." One would like to know which commanders said so to the Washington Post, whether from the narrower PetraeoCrockerian clique or the broader consensus at the Green Zone Officers Mess. The latter seem to be of the same opinion still as last fall, when they leaked relentlessly and shamelessly to create the impression that poor M. al-Málikí is one of the principal obstacles that requires to be surged at.[2] That has not happened, and it cannot be expected to happen in the short term remaining to the Dr. Gen. before accountability sets in.

It is unlikely that the PetraeoCrockerians are deliberately settin' out to intimidate poor M. al-Málikí. They do not conceive this nifty scheme of theirs as directed against him, but rather at the fiends of al-Qá‘ida, exactly as they claim. As usual, the best maxim is to assume that politicians, even Big Party invasionists and intriguers, mean what they say and say what they mean unless there is really compelling evidence to the contrary. All but certainly, it is only more collateral damage and stumblebumism that their nifty scheme of bribery should happen to shove poor M. al-Málikí and his alleged "central government" to the side while they surge on to PetraeoVictory without him and it. Probably the "libertarian" strain in the domestic ideology of Grant's Old Party has nothing to do with it either, although to achieve "security and reconciliation at the neighborhood level" (i.e., without any evil Fedguv ever buttin' in!) might seem to appear to devotees of Miss Rand of Petersburg and Mr. Nozick of Harvard. [3]

Can the braniac aggressors in fact bribe their way to "security and reconciliation at the neighborhood level"? Not very likely. As in any such attempt, there is the notorious difficulty of making sure that one's bribees stay bought. An objector might object that the Petraeans propose to rely on bribery for only a short term, so perhaps they can pull it off. I respond, "Look again at their proposed transition to livin' happily ever after":

"In the long term, commanders say, the goal is to incorporate the units into the Iraqi security forces."


Now if you was a potential bribee, Mr. Bones, a venal shaykh, or even perhaps a mere venal and crooked pretender to shaykhdom, what would you make of that? I suppose you might decline, but politely praise the honesty of your wannabe corrupters from the Big Management Party, who tell you up front that their bribes won't be coming in for very long and that any armed band you assemble with their bribes is slated to be taken away from your control and handed over to the (Twelver-infested!) Fedguv as soon as possible. Alternatively, you might take their bucks while the taking is good, and try to avoid the rest of it when the time comes as best you can, should God will. And that's about it, as far as I can see.

The only way a genuine PetraeoVictory could emerge from it would be for al-Qá‘ida to be smashed beyond recovery in the short term, and then there turns out to be no urgent need for "Iraqi security forces," because it will have turned out the faith-crazed fiends of M. Bin Ládin were the only thing that kept "security and stability" from breaking out in the former Iraq long since. For purely domestic Boy-'n'-Party reasons, Karl Rove reasons, the chickenhawk Big Managers pretend to believe something of the sort. Congress and Televisionland can still be incited against al-Qá‘ida, perhaps. The rest of the bushogenic quagmire is far over the heads of Wingnut City and Rio Limbaugh, not to speak of how little interest those who do not still support the aggression take in native squabbles. In the real world, however, the smashing required cannot be accomplished quickly, and if by some fluke it were accomplished, it would be only a sarcasm to call what ensues "stability and security."

So don't bet on it, Mr. Bones.



____
[1] Confronted with 10:1 odds at the Casino of Human Events, I should myself spend more time worrying about what happens after I lose than about exactly what the prize would be if I'm very lucky. Since neither the honourary colonel nor the bipartisan neocomrade says a word about the down side of the wager proposed, further research seems called for. (Needless to add, perhaps, casinos and I do not interact very often.)


[2] They did not, however, leak lawlessly, since our violence pros have never been taught that chickenhawk control of the military applies to foreign chickenhawks. But I'd give you higher odds than Biddle's that "commanders" don't know enough about GZ collaborationist politics to dabble in them to any purpose.


[3] Planet Dilbert and I are scarcely on speaking terms, so I may be mistaken here, with Miss Rand and Mr. Nozick and their dupes preferring to have competitive governments at the neighborhood level. In that case, the present state of the Arab Sunni provinces of the former Iraq is ideal from the Dilbertarian standpoint, and therefore the Dr. Gen. should just leave well enough alone. That seems to be what Neocomrade Congressman R. Paul is aimin' at, although maybe not for exactly these reasons. But God knows best.

27 July 2007

Whatever You Do, Don't Disintegrate

When the Christian Science Monitor admits that a patient is sick, very likely the only question is where to bury the part of her that did not pass away altogether. But silly ideologies apart,

Iraq is in the throes of its worst political crisis since the fall of Saddam Hussein with the new democratic system, based on national consensus among its ethnic and sectarian groups, appearing dangerously close to collapsing, say several politicians and analysts.

This has brought paralysis to governmental institutions and has left parliament unable to make headway on 18 benchmarks Washington is using to measure progress in Iraq, including legislation on oil revenue sharing and reforming security forces.

And the disconnect between Baghdad and Washington over the urgency for solutions is growing. The Iraqi parliament is set for an August vacation as the Bush administration faces pressure to show progress in time for a September report to Congress.

At the moment, Iraqi politicians are simply trying to keep the government from disintegrating.


So few words, so many dubious judgements:

(1) Neither the currently imposed neorégime nor any predecessor has been "based on national consensus." Realists will say all have been based on Republican Party bayonets. Idealists at the CSM might speak de jure (sort of) and claim to think poor M. al-Málikí &c. repose upon the Khalílzád Konstitution. The latter might seem a slight improvement on frank Party invasion-basin' and right of conquest, in that the KK at least aspires towards "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups." However to aspire towards and to be based on are not synonymous expressions.

(2) "This has brought paralysis to governmental institutions," we are instructed. Evidently this "this" must be either the political crisis or the dangerous closeness to collapse. Take your pick, it's wrong either way. The primary cause of the patient's paralysis is, once again, the Khalílzád Konstitution. The actual politics of the collaborationist natives is only loosely based on that document, to be sure, or on any other sort of Rulalaw. None of the GZ pols have quite the extremist GOP reverence for original intents, not even for their own from a couple dozen months ago. However the KK may take the lion's share of credit for the paralysis of the formal machinery described in it. That poor kid was paralyzed from birth. Paralyzed from conception, even. And of course paralyzed more or less deliberately by its own Madisons and Hamiltons, who proceeded logically enough on the theory that the great thing is to make sure that the other guys get as few of their original (or subsequent) intents as can be arranged. The KK has certainly achieved what it aimed at, but whether total gridlock was a sensible thing to aim at is another question.[1]

(3) Mr. Dagher fails to see that his "worst political crisis" is coterminous with the formal structure of the neorégime as such. Accordingly, it is no surprise that one cannot make out what the [exp. del.] it consists in, as monitored by Christian Science. His indig quotees can't do much better:

"Most of the political blocs have failed to operate within the framework of national consensus. They can't even properly formulate their positions and proposals, let alone realize the very serious dangers that surround everyone."


That gem is from "Fakhri Karim, a close adviser to Messrs. Barzani and Talabani who also publishes the independent Al Mada newspaper." Considering the politics of al-Máda, though, the august Framework of National Consensus is probably equivalent to what poor M. al-Málikí says he thinks Crawford wants. They've all got one of those framework gizmos, naturally, all the GZ pols from all the sects and ethnea of peaceful Freedumbia.

If having a Framework of National Consensus in one's hip pocket had any tendency to produce either a nation or a consensus, the collaborationists might make some headway. Needless to say, it is always only the other guys who insist on being narrow and nonconsensual. Here's one of the other guys:

"We are firmly convinced after this bitter experience that this government represented by its prime minister is incapable of joining a truly patriotic project," added Mr. Olayan, surrounded by Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and the [Tawáfuq] front's other leaders."


The "bitter experience" seems to be having ever had anything to do with the UIA's model of a Framework of National Consensus. The quasiparliamentary TwentyPercenters' idea of "a truly patriotic project" does not command majority support inside the TwentyPercenter theocommunity, of course, let alone in the former Iraq more broadly.

Tertiary education gets it more wrong than right closer to home:

Robert Springborg, director of the Middle East Institute at the University of London, says the heart of the problem was that no one is truly committed to a strong and unified government. "The actors involved have their own agendas, the central government and its resources are a tool for their own aspirations ... none are committed to a government for all Iraqis," he says.


"Its resources," yes. "The central government," no. The Green Zone Fedguv as constituted under the Khalílzád Konstitution is about on a par with that rattle Tweedledee and Tweedledum went to war over. It's perfectly useless for realizing one's own aspirations. At best it may come in handy at times for interfering with other folks' counteraspirations. Everybody save the Free Kurds is in principle as devoted as devoted can be to "a government for all Iraqis," so devoted that they mean to run the said ideal government themselves and keep all untrue patriots and nonconsensual frameworkers firmly out of it. That is what passes for political normalcy in the Greater Levant, after all.

Those natives whose politics are serious rely primarily on their armed bands to effect their aspirations toward Levantine normalcy, the KK neorégime being perfectly useless and scarcely worth taking over. Its oil and its troops are valuable resources, however. Why, even the militant Republicans have noticed that much!

If Dr. Springborg were to begin with Tweedledee and Tweedledum and the rattle instead of his own refined notions of civilised governance, he might raise more rewarding questions, such as "Who is to be the Great Crow, then?" Poor M. al-Málikí has a theory about that matter, it seems:

Sami al-Askari, a parliamentarian and close adviser to Maliki, ... accused the Sunni bloc of operating from the get-go more like opposition than a partner. Maliki and his Shiite allies have repeatedly charged that the Sunnis want to bring down the government and reverse the current political equation with the help of regional Sunni Arab powers Egypt and Saudi Arabia.


The pol will have meant by "reverse the current political equation" that the Sunnintern wants a Sunni Ascendancy back rather than anything immediately to do with the Khalílzád Konstitution, yet if the Great Crow really does fly in from that direction, M. al-‘Askarí's prophetic words will apply well enough to getting rid of the "0+0+0=0" equation that now obtains at Brave New Baghdád.

The whole shebang is most remarkable: how could even Harvard Victory School MBA's have thought to wreak their Party will on Peaceful Freedumbia with a "constitution" that might do in Switzerland but scarcely anyplace else on earth? And some of the tonier commentary is as much fun as the actual wreakin', can't the social scientizers appreciate that since the Swiss actually possess "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups," it scarcely matters what their constitution is or whether they have one at all?

==

On the Great Crow front, see this morning's latest Boy-'n'-Party autoleakage to the New York Times , titled "U.S. Officials Voice Frustrations With Saudis’ Role in Iraq" .

Bush administration officials are voicing increasing anger at what they say has been Saudi Arabia’s counterproductive role in the Iraq war. They say that beyond regarding Mr. Maliki as an Iranian agent, the Saudis have offered financial support to Sunni groups in Iraq.


Fancy the cowpokers talkin' about anybody else's "counterproductive role"!


____
[1] The Madisons and Hamiltons, along with their superintendant Khalílzád Pasha and his superintendants back at the ranch, were (as I speculate) not aiming directly at total gridlock, though they might as well have been. One might even say they blundered with "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups" somewhere vaguely in mind, though that is pushing charity rather hard. Had the blunder been fully cognized and written down, it might read something like "As any fool can plainly see, the greatest political danger to the former Iraq at present is that one sect or ethnos will grab control of the Fedguv and tyrannize over all the rest. Let's make sure that can't happen." And that is exactly what they did.

Certain persons disappointed with the Crawford-blessed Land of Peace and Freedom (disappointed as regards special interests of their own, mostly) profess to think that poor M. al-Málikí is guilty of sectarian tyranny, and so I must be wrong to consider the Khalílzád Konstitution a smashing success, in its own peculiar terms. These persons fail to understand that there is only so much even a genuine constitution can do. Possibly there is a certain amount of sectarian tyranny going on, but none of it is being done with the formal institutions of the Fedguv defined in the KK: M. al-Málikí and the Council of Quasiministers are not officially tyrannizing with the KK executive. The Council of Quasideputies are not tyrannizing through the KK legislative. The KK judiciary has not even been instantiated, so far as I am aware, so how can it be guilty of tyrannizing? It's quite as impossible to tyrannize with the Khalílzád Konstitution as it is to do anything else in particular with it. To be sure, that means that one cannot do "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups" with it either.

The militant GOP geniuses themselves appear to have noticed as much recently, although probably not very perspicuously. According to one of this week's Party autoleakages,

The "near-term" goal is to achieve "localized security" in Baghdad and other areas no later than June 2008. It envisions encouraging political accommodations at the local level, including with former insurgents . . . The "intermediate" goal is to stitch together such local arrangements to establish a broader sense of security on a nationwide basis no later than June 2009.


The Islamic State of Iraq, and whoever is operating "death squads" out of the secret police quasiministry (if anybody is), and a large number of other armed bands, take essentially Dr. Gen. Petraeus's view of how his own Party's armed band should operate under existin' conditions in Peaceful Freedumbia. If none of the bandits explicitly points out that this involves actin' as if the Khálílzád Konstitution does not exist, doubtless that is because they never thought of it at all in connection with their urgent priorities. The Petraean banditti must do a little lip service, of course, so in my ellipsis above belong the words "while pressing Iraq's leaders to make headway on their program of national reconciliation." (Much good that will do! I believe there is a joke about how do you make a kitten pull a stage coach? Answer "With a whip.")

26 July 2007

Profiles in Yesteryear

Some of the carefully crafted language reads like vintage Sorensen – and could be reasonably effective if properly delivered by a skillful speaker. “In this campaign,” the speech declares, “I will make no promises I cannot fulfill, pledge no spending we cannot afford, offer no posts to cronies you cannot trust, and propose no foreign commitment we should not keep. I will not shrink from opposing any party faction, any special interest group, or any major donor whose demands are contrary to the national interest.”

At this point, however, Sorensen delivers a definition of unabashed liberalism, which, if echoed by the actual Democratic nominee, could guarantee victory for the GOP: “Nor will I shrink from calling myself a liberal in the same sense that Franklin and Theodore Roosevelt, John and Robert Kennedy, and Harry Truman were liberals – liberals who proved that government is not a necessary evil, but rather the best means of creating a healthier, more educated, more prosperous America.”

Conservatives should rejoice at the prospect of fighting out an election campaign on precisely this question: is government indeed the “best means of creating” a better America—or is it an intrusive, annoying, arbitrary, largely destructive force that consumes too much of out time, energy and money.

I remain confident that the majority of our fellow citizens will warm much more readily to the Ronald Reagan formulation that “government isn’t the solution; government is the problem,” or the Jeffersonian declaration that “the government that governs best, governs least.”


Unfortunately for militant extremist Big Management Party neocomrades, and for all all their Party's nitwit victimized wombscholars and all its sad and selfish downdumbees, the next election in sight ain't likely to be about precisely THAT question. "Intrusive, annoying, arbitrary, largely destructive" worries about exactly what curious sort of neo-happiness Boy and Party have created for their invasionized neo-subjects out in Peaceful Freedumbia are only too likely to supervene. An alliance and solidarity of Planet Dilbert and Miss Rand of Petrograd and Mr. Nozick of Harvard with the resistance / insurgency / guerrilla / terrorism of Peaceful Freedumbia -- everybody in sight, palefaces and swarthies both alike shouting "Get ALL the [exp. del.] BigManagers off EVERYBODY's back!" -- would undoubtedly be very picturesque and edifying, but I fear it's not really very likely to happen.

Former Non-President Sorensen, the perpetrator of Profiles in Courage, has much to answer for, and I shan't forgive him myself this side of the Weltgericht, but meanwhile, we still live diesseits in the corrupt sewer of Sorensen and Cheney, not in the Republic of Plato nor anywhere on any Atlas according to John Galt or Ayn Rand. So then, "[T]he best means of creating a healthier, more educated, more prosperous America" remains a serious question, or three serious questions, and there appears to be only the same old answer as ever: obviously Big Management must take care of all that, and it advances or retards the analysis not a step to passionately identify, or stubbornly decline to identify, Big Management with "Big Government." We're all hooked on Bigness nowadays, addicted to Bigness, under the aegis of Uncle Sam, the very biggest of all Biggies ever, the Alone Sole Remainin' Hyperpower!, and to propose tiny local solutions about medicine or education or "prosperity" or anything else that seriously matters nowadays is only to spit against the wind and but bespatter ourselves with our own idle spittle.

Call our plight "globalism," if you happen to enjoy mechanical windup-toy verbal claptrap! The precise name you prefer to call the Bigness Thing by matters not at all to the Bigness Thing itself. I rather personify the Bigness Thing snickerin' to Itself as each new pilgrim approaches to adore and revere and circumambulate, is it to be globally adored/revered/circumambulated as "management" this time, or as "government"?

If the Bigness Thing privately draws certain negative conclusions about the Human Race from all this a/r/c stuff, It is not alone. Many human moralists have anticipated Juggernaut's conclusions.

But God knows best. KECEKE!

25 July 2007

The Windows of the Bozo Box

"Security" may be a bloody obscene joke out in the Big Management Party's half-conquered foreign provinces, but that problem of success does not mean they can't do better for themselves than for their little foreign friends. As every schoolboy knows, Castle Cheney is totally opaque at all wavelengths, not just the constitutional one. Chateau Kennebunkport and Rancho Crawford are a bit more subtle, they contain what appear from a distance to be windows but are actually cunningly crafted video displays. In science fiction, we are often told that real windows are dangerous and unnecessary, but the video displays show the tourists what they would see if there was a transparent spot in the hull, rings of Saturn or whatever. The Harvard Victory School MBA's have turned that plan inside out, one can "see" what's going on "inside" their Executive Branch, sort of, but a good deal more is going on than visible light passing through glass.

Can the perps see out? Naturally there is no way to tell for sure, but to speculate that they can not see out very clearly might explain a large part of the stumblebumism.

On the other hand, one might equally well guess that what the Party OnePercenters see where the rest of us looking in see "windows" is mirrors. That is how one-way glass works in the police movies, I believe, and to fancy the bozos always preenin' their wunnerful selves inside those mysterious boxes of theirs when they ought to be workin' (or at least bigmanagin') would explain a lot also. For instance, it would explain Little Brother's and Dr. Limbaugh's Yalie cheerleadin' from yesterday,

THE PRESIDENT: Some note that Al-Qaeda in Iraq did not exist until the US invasion and argue that it is a problem of our own making. The argument follows the flawed logic that terrorism is caused by American actions.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: Iraq's not the reason that the terrorists are at war with us.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: We were not in Iraq when the terrorists bombed the World Trade Center in 1993.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: We were not in Iraq when they attacked our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: We were not in Iraq when they attacked the USS Cole in 2000, and we were not in Iraq on September the 11th, 2001. Our action to remove Saddam Hussein did not start the terrorist violence. An American withdrawal from Iraq would not end it.


Little Brother looks "through" the "window" that the Party-blessed Land of Two Rivers -- the placid stream of Peace and the gushin' torrent of Freedom[1] -- ought to be on the other side of, and what he "sees" is chiefly that terrorism is not caused by American actions. That is to say, Little Brother must be lookin' at Little Brother, not at the former Iraq, when he emits noises like those -- although admittedly he does seem to see the former acts of Bill Clinton and other top donkeys not causin' terrorism also. "Thank you very much, Mr. President." (Some of his Party base-and-vile would be happy to set him straight about that overgenerous detail.) To refer to a "mirror" in this connection is therefore rhetorically warrantable. [2][3]

However the "screens" on the outside of the Bozo Box are more worth discussing than the "mirrors" on the inside, if only because outside is where we humble find ourselves. Crawfordology is no easy science; most practitioners seem to think that mentioning Neocomrade K. Rove's name is about as far as one can go for sure in this misdirection. However there may have been a significant break-through quite recently, and it goes like this :

President Bush announced: "Many of the spectacular car bombings and killings you see are as a result of al Qaeda -- the very same folks that attacked us on September the 11th." ... [L]ately the media has been pushing back a bit on this particular Bush deception.

On July 11, Jonathan S. Landay noted for McClatchy Newspapers that the group calling itself al-Qaeda in Iraq "didn't emerge until 2004." Michael Abramowitz wrote in [t]he Washington Post that while the group's "militants are inspired by bin Laden, intelligence analysts say the Iraqi group is composed overwhelmingly of Iraqis and does not take direction from bin Laden." And the Los Angeles Times reported: "A Pentagon report late last year . . . said that Shiite Muslim militias, not Al Qaeda, were the largest threat to security in Iraq."

Not long after New York Times public editor Clark Hoyt's scolded his own paper for not confronting Bush on the issue, Times reporters Michael R. Gordon and Jim Rutenberg wrote in a front-page story that Bush's assertions "have greatly oversimplified the nature of the insurgency in Iraq and its relationship with the Qaeda leadership."

And the coverage of Tuesday's intelligence report ... was full of skepticism over the White House's attempted conflation.

So what a stroke of luck it was for the White House when, just a day later, the chief military spokesman in Iraq revealed a dramatic story that would appear to support the president's new favorite talking point: Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner chose yesterday to announce the arrest -- two weeks ago -- of a man he called a leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, who he said had told interrogators about a close operational relationship between his group and Osama bin Laden's inner circle.

Was the timing coincidental? And is Bergner credible? Until recently he was a member of the White House's national security staff, holding the title of senior director for Iraq. Since taking up his new post in May, Bergner has made a series of politically charged allegations against both al Qaeda and Iran, many of which have been basically unverifiable.


Neocomrade Gen. K. Bergner turns out to be such as only another militant extremist Republican would be likely to credit:

But there was no evidence to back up Bergner's claims. And as Mike Nizza pointed out on the New York Times Web site, Bergner showed at least some willingness to make insinuations based not on intelligence, but on his imagination. Consider the following exchange:

Bergner: "Our intelligence reveals that senior leadership in Iran is aware of this activity. . . . "

Question: "Can you define senior leadership?"

Bergner: "I think I'll leave it at that."

Question: "Would you exclude the supreme leader?"

Bergner: "I'll leave it at 'senior leadership in Iran'"

Question: "Put it this way: Do you think it's possible that he doesn't know?"

Bergner: "That would be hard to imagine."

At least one report since then appears to cast some doubt on Bergner's claim of an Iranian role in the Karbala attack. As Gregg Zoroya wrote on July 12 for USA Today: "A previously undisclosed Army investigation into an audacious January attack in Karbala that killed five U.S. soldiers concludes that Iraqi police working alongside American troops colluded with insurgents."


There is more where that came from, if you are interested in Gen. Bergner personally as well as in his structural or Bozo Box role. As to the latter, it is not simply that students can now speak of "Rove and Bergner" to personify Big Party twistification rather than Rove alone. More important is to notice that prior to the present state of their aggression, the cowpokers did not think they needed to dispatch a Party neocomrade like K. Bergner to preside as commissar over the Five O'Clock Follies at New Baghdád. They were content with whatever spin the violence pros of the Green Zone Officers Club chose to supply.

It would thus appear that Something Went Wrong. What the Bernard Lewis can it have been? Can it be that Little Brother does not altogether trust his good ol' buddy "David"? [4]



____
[1] Placid Euphrates, arrow-like Tigris, dont' you know?


[2] There is certainly a Sci-Fi display screen vision of Peaceful Freedumbia inside the box also. It is described in this morning's New York Times . The Bozo Box's architect may have thought that some of its seemin' windows should be analog mirrors, whereas others should present digital fabrications. (Who knows, perhaps a few really are windows, lookin' out? If so, however, stained or rose-tinted glass seems more likely than the vulgar sort.)

There was also a mirror aspect to Little Brother's choice of audience yesterday:

At a time when Mr. Bush is trying to beat back calls for withdrawal from Iraq, the speech at Charleston Air Force Base reflected concern at the White House over criticism that he is focusing on the wrong terrorist threat.


No discouragin' words to be expected from those deer and antelope!


[3] Some of the Big Party's "conservative" "intellectual" tank-think señoritos might look into "terrorism is not caused by American actions" a little more closely than they ever have yet. As a soothin' syrup for the immoderate self-esteemin' of Greater Texans the product can scarcely be improved upon, but as geopolitics there are certain difficulties. I mean, there are difficulties if one assumes with the señoritos that it is true. They never seem to worry whether their own dogma might not imply that globoterror simply cannot be influenced by any American or Big Management Party actions whatsoever, very extreme actions along Hiroshima-Nagasaki lines possibly excepted.

The bushogenic quagmire in the former Iraq could be plausibly maintained by some cheap anti-Party sophist to establish that the neocomrades cannot cure globoterror any more than they can cause it. That's rather too simplistic a view for Mr. Bones and me, because even when the dogma is extended in that fashion, we are still in a figurative Hall of Mirrors, more interested in our own navels than in what is happening out in the boondocks of the world. But God knows best.


[4] That would be Dr. Gen. D. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton, of course. Advanced students of Crawfordology may want to follow up this lead:

Salon blogger Glenn Greenwald chronicles Gen. David Petraeus's "track record of highly dubious claims over the last several years about Iraq" .


I think it a bit of a red herring myself, however. His Braniacness must be at least a fellow traveler with Grant's Old Party to have taken his present job (and fourth star) at all, but is he enough of a neocomrade to lie for the good old cause? "Not proved" is the only sound verdict. A good deal of Mr. Greenwald's brief for the prosecution amounts to no more than that a braniac's crystal ball need not work much better than anybody else's.

A stronger case might have been mustered up on a far lesser charge: does "David" really understand his Boy's and his Party's Peaceful Freedumbia well enough to implement his own nifty MacnamarioPetraean neocounterinsurgency satisfactorily in it? Probably not, think I, and the strongest evidence is that he puts up with the amazin' D. Kilcullen, who is manifestly clueless and ought to be shipped home to his kangaroos forthwith. However that, and the rest of the really solid evidence against "David," involves technical questions of the violence profession rather than any highly dubious claimin' in the path of Dubya.

24 July 2007

The Summer of 2009

The first thing to notice about it is that it is manifestly a deliberate official autoleakage, not a reportorial scoop. Mr. Gordon, the NYTC employee, was called in and handed a press release for his corporation to print, perhaps quite literally. Autoleakers cannot, of course, prevent their collaborators from festooning the leakage proper with whatever additional reporting or editorializing they see fit to. In this case, the New York Times Company scarcely sees fit at all. Probably Major Leaker did not himself mention that "the goals in the document appear ambitious" or refer to the Iraq Study Group by name or names, although perhaps he did both. Beyond rewording the hand-out to read like a news story instead of a press release, naturally a sine quâ non, there is nothing here that cannot have come straight from the lips (or the laser printer) of Maj. Leaker.

Secondly, it lacks the tell-tale signs of a Big Management Party autoleakage and bears several positive counterindications on its face, beginning with the New Baghdád dateline. The strongest clue that Cheney & Co. are not directly involved is the number of individual perps mentioned by name. Apart from D. Kilcullen and "a British officer," who are aliens -- or perhaps one should label them "coalitionites"? -- probably all the names belong to registered Republicans, yet they do not issue their press release on behalf of the Big Party. Despite the references to Neocomrade Proconsul R. Crocker and Neocomrade Dr. S. Biddle of the CFR, the press release seems patently intended to be taken as an "independent" assessment of the state of the aggression issued by violence professionals. Not so intended, presumably, but nearly as patent, is that it must emanate from the immediate entourage of Dr. Gen. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton. (One may even guess, not that it matters, that Maj. Leaker's identity is "Col. Peter Mansoor, the executive officer to General Petraeus.") There are bits of it that seem to be in conflict with the general consensus of the Green Zone Officers Club, notably "avoid undercutting the authority of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki." In the other direction, up the totem pole, there is nothing in it that takes cognizance of any bigger Big Picture than the bushogenic quagmire that immediately surrounds the Green Zone, which makes it unlikely that it fully reflects views held at the very top of the nonchickenhawk section of the chain of command. [1] The blessèd and mysterious MacNamarioPetraean word "counterinsurgency" only occurs twice, but the first occurence is significant and stronly indicative of where this press release is coming from:

[T]he new approach reflects the counterinsurgency precept that protection of the population is best way to isolate insurgents, encourage political accommodations and gain intelligence on numerous threats.


Neither the Cheney chickenhawks nor the top brass take exactly that view, the former because they certainly do not launch their Party aggressions and invasions and occupations to protect anybody beyond themselves, the latter because the program specified does not much resemble the unsubtle sort of war winning that they prefer and that has traditionally worked out well for Uncle Sam. [2] The press release would not have been supplied to Mr. Gordon if Boy and Party had forbidden that it should be, yet it really is "independent" of the Big Managers up to a certain point. That it only overlaps with what the chief GOP geniuses think themselves and does not coincide altogether, is itself part of the purpose of the exercise, and more or less must be now that Little Brother has committed himself to pretendin' that he defers to "his" generals and wants Senators and Congresscritters and Televisionland and the electorate to do the same. [3] Under these circumstances it would not do for this document to have Neocomrade K. Rove's fingerprints on it. It does not, and thus for once the stumblebums have managed a show of competence.

Here begins Paragraph Four, and I haven't even mentioned dates and deadlines and benchmarks, which most decent adult political commentary will shriek about first. Well, that angle is obvious enough and therefore anybody's business to shriek against. Let's pass it over, shall we?

To conclude on a literary note instead, observe that Mr. Gordon and his corporation retained the right to rearrange the contents of press releases from the David Petraeus Fan Club (and anybody else, even the great GOP itself) and have done so rather cleverly. Look what comes last, the sting in the tail:

“We are going to try a dozen different things,” said one senior officer. “Maybe one of them will flatline. One of them will do this much. One of them will do this much more. After a while, we believe there is chance you will head into success. I am not saying that we are absolutely headed for success.”


In theory, that could be satire on the micawberizin' of the Big Management Party stumblebums, but the chances that it really is are negligible. One would need almost to be Dean Swift himself to make up anything so extremely ben trovato. Doubtless Major Leaker actually said it, moving his hands as well as his lips. And you must admit that the saying is 100% Karl Rove free! Nobody with narrowly Party-political objectives in mind would have said that. Why, it even tends to raise questions about Big Management as such! One doubts that the Harvard Victory School instructs its MBA's to hope that they will, by chance, head into success. West Point perhaps does, for in a way Maj. Leaker's frankly avowed micawberism is a gloss on "All's fair in love and war."

In the context that this rhetorical weapon was deployed in it, it may rather beg the crucial question. Unless one starts by supposing the success of MacNamarioPetraeanism to be very precious indeed, the prospect of futzin' about indefinitely tryin' to obtain it by "chance" may not have much appeal. But God knows best.


____
[1] At least one hopes it doesn't. It is, nevertheless, possible that Joint Chiefs &c. have also lost sight of the forest for the sake of the one Mesopotamian upas tree.


[2] As observers have observed, counterinsurgency also tends to upset the intramural correlation of forces at DOD, leaving the sailors and the flyboys very little to do and thus imperilling their fair share of the budget. Dr. Gen. Petraeus may have become even more unpopular than ever with his peers and his uniformed betters now that he is not merely ten times brainier than they are, but, for the moment at least, in a fine position to extort almost any level of funding he wishes from Boy and Party. Extortion from Congress may be rather trickier, and doubtless Maj. Leaker was to to some extent thinking of that as he composed this morning's press release.

The narrower inside circles of Cheney chickenhawks shares the top brass's reservations as well as possessing their own. Countersurgency is, after all, a pretty wimpy business, is it not? Are they to brief their Dr. Limbaugh to bark and bellow about "isolate insurgents, encourage political accommodations and gain intelligence on numerous threats," then? The Party base-and-vile want to assassinate insurgents, they take Neocomrade J. Bolton's dim view of political or diplomatic accomodations, and they confidently rely on Sole Remainin' Hyperpower to attain success and victory without any need to solicit intelligence from mere lowly indigs. Or even from the Central Intelligence Agency, for that matter.

A MacNamarioPetraean Kiddie Krusade is no doubt slightly better than no Kiddie Krusade at all, but it is hardly ideal from Wingnut City's perspective. ("Hey, why not take out Iran?")



[3] The MacNamarioPetraeans preach that "American troops cannot impose a military solution," no surprise in that. It is a rather picturesque chiasmus, though, that Boy and Party have now been reduced to hopin' for a purely military solution to their own special domestic difficulties, in the sense that whether or not they get their Long War (not to mention retain control of the Executive Branch) is beginnin' to hinge exclusively on whether or not Dr. Gen. Petraeus can bring home enough bacon for them.