"Experts in Shiite politics"

Experts in Shiite politics believe that efforts to isolate Mr. Sadr are bound to fail. “Sadr holds the political center in Iraq,” said Joost Hiltermann, the director of the International Crisis Group’s office in Amman, Jordan. “They are nationalist, they want to hold the country together and they are the only political organization that has popular support among the Shias. If you try to exclude him from any alliance, well, it’s a nutty idea, it’s unwise.”

Hmm. Does one have to be an international crisis groupie to take an interest in Twelver Politics, then?

Perhaps, in the wake of Rúholláh Cardinal Khomeiní, one really more or less does.

J. Hiltermann turns up prominently in the media as yet another paleface planmonger, but his self-presented credentials do not suggest any special expertise of the sort attributed to him by the NYTC employee:

Areas of expertise: * Iraq: political transition, constitutional process, the situation of the Kurds * Jordan * Israel-Palestine * Middle East region: security threats, authoritarianism and democratisation, political Islam

The groupies' more general blurb runs as follows,

Joost Hiltermann manages a team of analysts based in Amman and Beirut conducting research in the countries of the Middle East and writing policy-focused reports on the factors that increase the risk of and drive armed conflict. The crisis in Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are Crisis Group’s two priorities in the region, but research is conducted as well in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

Is the politics of the Rev. Señorito al-Sadr a factor that increases the risk of, and drives, armed conflict, then? Various opinions might be entertained, policy-focused or focused elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Ms. Rubin, who appears to have relapsed into taking her "Iraq" prefabricated from the Proconsular Palace of the Party and the Green Zone Officers Club, is rather at odds with her own expert (?) quotee:

HE says, "they are the only political organization that has popular support among the Shias." SHE says,

The mainstream parties talk about Mr. Sadr carefully. Some never mention his followers or the Mahdi militia by name, but speak elliptically of “armed groups.” Others acknowledge his position but are reserved on the challenge he poses.

But perhaps there is no difficulty. What could be more "mainstream" nowadays than to dispense with "popular support"? If that plan works for the militant GOP extremists here in their Homeland, why shouldn't it work for them at New Baghdád as well?