An Instinct for the Capillaries

The lesser dovish blogosphere -- Ms. Cobban, Mr. Badger, Dr. Visser -- has been taking a remarkable degree of interest in A conference held in Baghdad on 14 April by members of the Council for the Region of the South (Majlis ’Iqlím al-Janúb), as RV begins his emergency bulletin about this deplorable development. Exactly what one is expected to become alarmed about is not quite as perspicuous as one might wish, however:

The interesting aspect about this story is the identity of the regionalists in question. No names are given in the most recent press report, but an organisation with an identical name was founded in Nasiriyya in May last year - so far without attracting much attention from outsiders. Intriguingly, the leading figures behind that move were from SCIRI, Daawa and various smaller political groups in Nasiriyya. The Sadrists and Fadila were not represented.

The "most recent press report" refers to al-Hayát of 15 April 2007. A partisan organ of the Sunni International that one can not altogether trust on the subject of neo-Iraq cites three quasideputies obviously picked because they disapprove of Decentralization Now assuring us that they do indeed disapprove of it. Here in degenerate Westistan, even Fox News would probably not push its well known fairness and balance quite that far. Why, reporting on the formation of a leadership committee, the Murdochites might even mention the names of the leaders! In the Middle East, however, such far-fetched norms do not apply. The "pan-Arab" hack cannot be bothered to mention who attended, but he finds time to mention that nobody of importance was there, and infer that nothing will come of. A lucky escape that will be for pan-Arabia, no doubt.

Our norms become not just inapplicable, but apparently invisible to ourselves. Dr. Visser doesn't complain that he is reduced to guessing who and what he's going to instruct his disciples about; he doesn't even notice that there might be something to complain of.

Mr. Badger did not notice either, let alone complain, but then he must have been distracted by the opportunity to carry on his War on Juan, a private affair of honour which leads him about as far astray as anybody's instinct for the capillaries ever could. He's quite right about the particular nit picked, the first word in M. Hack's story was indeed "condemned," and perhaps there were no quasideputies present at all when the conspirators assembled the day before, although they may have been there only to be considered ghayr mas’úliyyín by M. Hack. It is a mildly interesting tree or shrub, I suppose, that even Don Juan can nod, but meanwhile how about the forest? How about "news" stories that begin with the word "condemned" and never get around to telling us much more than how damnable whatever-it-was really is? "Having decided, why report?" -- that attitude might be put under the microscope also, perhaps.

Returning to the Visserian guesswork, he does seem to allow for the possibility that this time around it may be somebody else with the same name, "Council for the Region of the South," but there's not much to be made of that. The possibility that the three quasideputies sat down with _al-Hayát_ and made the whole thing up out of whole cloth does not occur to him, and probably that is no great loss, although independent confirmation of the event would be nice, I think, even if we don't want to soil our ears by hearing from anybody who actually favors such wickedness.

But seriously,

There are at least two possible explanations. Firstly, regional sentiment in the far south of Iraq is very pronounced and often overrides the ideology of the central leadership of the national parties. This has been seen in Fadila (which has always been more localist in Basra), Daawa, among the Sadrists of Maysan (who sometimes employ regionalist rhetoric in the context of oil), and even among SCIRI members in Basra (some of whom continued to focus on Basra and the far south even after the central leadership had declared a single Shiite region as their goal.) The Nasiriyya-based Council for the Region of the South could be yet another example of regionalist sentiment cutting across ideological affiliations. Alternatively, this may be another instance of a phenomenon seen elsewhere in the south, where SCIRI have created "copycat" organisations in order to gain a foothold in a region where they traditionally have had problems. In Maysan, for instance, there are two Hizbollahs, one tribal and quite secularist, another pro-SCIRI and more Islamist. SCIRI are clearly trying to capitalise on the ongoing tension in the Sadrist camp in Basra between Fadila and followers of Muqtada al-Sadr, and theoretically this latest move by the Council for the Region of the South could have to do with another attempt at breaking down resistance to SCIRI in the far south, by co-opting and diluting it. The fact that the foundation of Majlis Iqlim al-Janub back in 2006 was widely reported in SCIRI and Badr media might suggest that the latter interpretation is the more plausible one.

As to Option One, notice how "sentiment" is good, and "ideology" bad, even though one would have thought that centralization and decentralization would have to be on a par and differ in effect only by presence or absence the word "not." It would be fun to apply the same rhetorical gimmick to "sectarianism," which is presumably far more respectable when it consists Mr. Hume's Enthusiasm than when his Superstition enters in to corrupt, when one's religionism is a matter of "identity" more than of theology. But I digress.

Unlike Mr. Badger, Dr. Visser knows a jugular when he sees one, sort of, and he lunges for it quickly enough. SCIRI being radix omnium malorum, as everybody knows, who can doubt that Option Two is not only "more plausible" but actually the case? I even like it myself, a little, since it falls in with my theory that the Rev. ‘Abd al-‘Azíz al-Hakím is smarter than any other six neo-Iraqi pols taken together, M. Ahmad Chelabí once excluded.

But as to the ethical merits of the "copycat" ploy, he and I will probably not see eye to eye. Giving the people what they seem to want is, in general, fine with a mere donkey like me, but does Dr. Visser agree? Not likely. Naturally he supposes that the ideological fiends in question intend to deceive his poor sentimental Southerners and swindle them into a nine-state solution sooner or later. Well, we'll see.

Meanwhile it takes a somewhat specialized mentality to attach as much importance to this fuss as our lesser dove bloggers do. Can putting down the Qiyádat al-Muwaqqata li-’Iqlím al-Janúb, which has no serious prospects anyway, really be more important than what Crawford dictates next? Or more important than a native trifle like the resignation of the Sadr Tendency ministers? Apparently if you suffer from a severe enough case of schizophobia, it really seems to be so.

It can happen here too, however, this sort of lack of proportion. There are, or used to be, Americans who seriously believe that our politics revolves around Mr. Ralph Nader. They see what they see very clearly, no doubt, but only at the price of ignoring most of what major bloggers think matters more. Oh, well.