"All Very Well, Father Joseph . . ."

". . . if only fortresses were taken with fingertips!"

Ignoring the warrantable sneers of the violence professionals, let us join M. la Eminence Grise for a little amateur militarism, shall we?

We just now complained that Rear-Colonel Fred Kagan did not offer any specifically military commentary about the Cole Plan or the Simon Plan for creating the happiness of neo-Iraq, so why not see what avowed amateurism can do in that direction? The place to begin is Plan C, clause 1.1:

[The United States should . . . r]etain the forces necessary to secure Baghdad International Airport, the Green Zone, and access routes that connect them.

That's not much to ask, is it? Surely a Sole Remaining Hyperpower ought to be able to manage that?

Mais je ne pas que m'amuse, Father Joseph, that is asking for so very little that one can scarcely make head or tail of it. Dr. Simon writes as if he never even heard of The Surge of '07, which itself isn't exactly looking for a Cannae or a Nagasaki, but still wants rather more than that. Unless I am seriously misinformed, the militant Republicans now propose to put the GZ collaborationist pols in charge of their whole capital city, plus the governate of al-’Anbár thrown in at no aditional charge. For that matter, Dr. Gen. Petrolaeus and the Green Zone Officers Club already show signs of succumbing to so-called "mission creep" and wandering off from their appointed -- or announced, anyway -- Surge tasks to entirely supererogatory places like al-Diwániyya and the al-Diyála governate. They run far more apparent risk of mounting their horse and riding off in all directions than of contracting their perimeter to the functional equivalent of that ever-memorable embassy roof at the former Saigon.

What with one thing and another, Father Joseph, I think Dr. Simon does not understand much more about the violence profession than you and I do. Clause [1.1] may perhaps make sense as a political or diplomatic absolute minimum to be defended, but from the West Point perspective it is ridiculous. That may be all the genteel concocters of Plan C think they owe the GOP's indig neo-régime, but to make sure that that minimum is deliverable a great deal more must come along with it, as notably military supremacy along the Tigris all the way down to the Gulf of Petrolaeum at very least. Keeping an interventionist boot on the ground at New Baghdád with a sort of perpetual Berlin Airlift is so silly a proposal that even an amateur can spot the silliness. Bad guys assailing that sort of a Fortress Crawford really would not need a great deal more than fingertips to capture it.

The problem, or "mission," that confronts us now that we have brought our tin soldiers out, Father Joseph, is to guesstimate what a really viable absolute minimum military perimeter would be, one that would make neo-Iraq really safe and secure for the substantive policy goals of Dr. Simon and the CFR/ISG gentry. Of course the already imposed neo-régime cannot be allowed to collapse altogether, that goes without saying, and of course ensuring its noncollapse requires a good deal more than Dr. Simon mentions. But is that all he wants? Is that all his real requirements in the way of organized violence that he doesn't specifically mention?

Well, let's see. Certain other clauses of Plan C look pertinent:

[1.2] During the disengagement period, stage the drawdown to maintain the forces in Iraq needed to protect or relocate vulnerable minority populations and suppress insurgent activity in the largely Sunni provinces. [2] Shift focus to containment of the conflict and strengthen the U.S. military position elsewhere in the region. (...) [2.3] Reinforce the U.S. military presence elsewhere in the Persian Gulf region, for example, Kuwait; explore options for increasing special operations forces deployed to Jordan; and increase the number of rotational deployments to the region, including joint exercises.

We have already expressed certain reservations about clause [1.2] as worded. Taking Dr. Simon à pied de la lettre, however, it would appear that once a certain "period of disengagement" terminates, "vulnerable minority populations" are to be tossed off the sledge to the wolves, and "insurgent activity in the largely Sunni provinces" is to flourish unsurpressed. Except insofar as the GZ neo-régime can protect and suppress, no doubt, but how far is that, when clause [1.1] leaves the native pols desperately embattled on the embassy roof?

But Dr. Simon clearly can not be aiming to help the indigenous collaborationists protect the innocent and vulnerable and suppress the guilty and insurgent to any large extent, when clauses [2] and [2.3] find him wresting Uncle Sam's protectors and suppressors away from the clueless grip of Crawford and redeploying elsewhere with his fingertips. Exactly what they are supposed to do in "for example, Kuwait" when they get there is rather pointedly not explained. That exemplary fortress and extremely valuable prize is not under seige at the moment, nor, in my view, is it likely to be assailled any time soon, now that we have rather memorably established that it is not the nineteenth governate of the former "Iraq."

What do you think General von Clausewitz would say about Dr. Simon of the CFR, Father Joseph, were he subject to potential or actual redeployment by Dr. Simon's fingertips? Presumably he would loyally do his best Krieg zu führen always in the path of State policy and never, ever regard organized professional violence as a metaphysical philosopher's Ding an sich or a political philosopher's separate Estate of the Realm. 'Tis grand stuff, that of Clausewitz, and I am all for it myself too, Father Joseph, but how would you work it if you had to labour for Dr. Simon and the CFR?

Dr. Gen. Petrolaeus of West Point and Princeton University will forgive me, I trust, if I suspect that he is probably not quite on a par with the late Herr Clausewitz, braniac-wise. But he too can be imagined as under the fingertips of Dr. Simon and the CFR/ISG gentry, and it might even actually happen. What would, or will, he do to try to conduct a decent and respectable Krieg, or at least a plausible anti-insurgency, in the path of the policy announced in Plan C?

At the moment he has things pretty much all his own way, Petrolaeus does. The Crawfordite extremists seem to have plumb run out of fresh dumb ideas for the misconduct of their "war" and left the Dr. Gen. pretty much in charge. The very fate of dogmatic Invasionism and Preëmptive Retaliation now seem to hinge on whether one lone intrepid Petrolaeus can walk the tightrope or not!

Now if I was writing Ms. Clio's script, at this point Dr. Gen. Braniac would think of Clausewitz and say something like "Shucks, folks." In fact he does indeed say "Shucks, folks," but more like he's already started running for President than like he is humbly remembering and revering the recognized luminaries of Mil. Sci.

So then, Father Joseph, after being spoiled like this under Rancho Crawford, permitted to do pretty well anything he likes as long as it "works," could Dr. Gen. Petrolaeus of Princeton and West Point ever become a really reliable employee of Dr. Simon and the CFR/ISG gentry, who after all have a tolerably definite policy of their own in mind, even if it can only be subtly communicated by winks and nods in public?

Nous verrons.