Dr. Cartoonoclastes rambles badly once he gets revved up, so his own account of what the Forces of Evil in the former Iraq are up to lacks punch. I shall therefore give you my summatorial version, Mr. Bones:
There are three Forces of Evil, one centered on Bush, one on poor M. al-Málikí, and a third, which is more or less the Salvific Awakeners of Sunnidom. All three have enemies at "home," so to speak: Democrats, Sadrists/Virtutites, and "takfírís" respectively. The three FOEs have come up with the not very remarkable plan of "conspiring" to put down their own internal troublemakers so that afterwards evil may reign unchecked. The Baní s-Sahwa have clobbered "al-Qá‘ida," poor M. al-Málikí is now returning the favor by solving the Sadr problem, and once that is done, AEI-GOP-DOD will be irresistible in the holy Homeland. Everybody wins. "So shall the world go on, / To good malignant, to bad men benign."
Of course the part of this iron triangle that the MJ gentry really care about, the Sunninterní part, is more complicated than the rest. Cartoonoclastes and the gang don't really like Ladinite faith-crazies any more than they like Bribe-a-Tribe™ pensioners. However their rigid nonsectarianism makes it very difficult for them ever to disapprove of anybody Sunní out loud. It has also made it difficult for Cartoono to admit that he understands why AEI-GOP-DOD fans are pleased with Dr. Gen. Petraeus of Princeton and West Point, the Ever-Victorious suRGe of ’07™ having hitherto been directed 90-95% at the Natural Masters of Mesopotamia, and only 5-10% at heretical covens and conventicles. The Second Muqtadan War has changed that, it looks like, and accordingly the self-censorship at Mu’ámara Junction has been relaxed a little:
| Naturally, in what concerns something as dear to the hearts of Bush administration as "Al-Qaeda", you have to be careful, but in this case the decline-of-the-ISI thesis seems to have some corroboration in the decline in suicide bombings (and in the case of my modest attempt to monitor jihadi sites, what I believe is a noticeable drop in claims and other statements by the ISI). Anyway, it doesn't seem a bad assumption that ISI is in decline or retreat in Iraq. |
Not a bad assumption today, but a couple of weeks ago, it would have been fort mauvais to mention such a set-back for strictly nonsectarian Sunnianity even as a mere working hypothesis. Tempora mutantur, et nos mutamur in illis, doncha know, Mr. Bones?
Cartoono muddies his waters of conspiracy by dragging in the evil Qommies, perhaps taking them rather than the Democrats, or in addition to them, to be Rancho Crawford's bête noire:
| The obvious objection [to picking on Muqtadae] is that the Mahdi Army is not as "Iranian" as Badr and the other Shiite militias that are allied with Maliki himself. But in this context that probably doesn't matter. Because from the standpoint of the Sunni actors the US is targeting, "Iran" means the parties to the sectarian wars in Baghdad post-February 2006, and wherever the truth may lie, to many that means the Mahdi Army. "We cleared out AQ, now you clear out Mahdi", would be the idea. |
Those "Sunni actors the US is targeting" are of course the Salvific Awakeners. Mark how Cartoonoclastes' pious nonsectarianism prevents him from saying in so many words that the Bribe-a-Tribers have made the wrong alliance and ought to be helping the Sadristas out -- apparently even if the latter did dabble in ethnic cleansing a little bit. [1] Anyhow, the Qommies themselves do not make an appearance, they are merely a sort of scarecrow deployed by the AEI-GOP-DOD coalition in order to distract and divide the Natural Master community. [2]
Up to what does this three-headed monster lead? That part is rather specific and surprising, so let Cartoono speak for himself:
| The bottom line is that, for the Americans, the existence of some kind of a "government" with at least some Sunni representation is a requirement to prop up the credibility of the proposed long-term bilateral security agreeement. The way to get there, they seem to have decided, (after many months of pussyfooting with "national reconciliation" meetings here and there), is by the good old sectarian way, in this case playing on anti-Sadr sentiment going back to the cleansing days, or earlier. |
Now at this point, Mr. Bones, the honourable and gallant conspiratorializer is talking mainly about our own holy Homeland, so I shall venture to contradict him and affirm that it is very unlikely that the AEI-GOP-DOD coalition of the willful attach half as much attention to a SOFA with the International Zone neorégime as he supposes, and maybe unlikelier still that anybody in the former Iraq does beyond a narrow circle around poor M. al-Málikí. Cartoonoclastes will, as always, be viewing the question Sunní-side up; I suppose he fancies that the Salvific Awakeners will take a SOFA as a pledge of permanent affection from "the Americans." If so, they, the Baní s-Sahwa, are even worse idiots than Cartoono takes them for -- but probably his claim is simply not so to begin with. [3]
As a sort of curiosity, sir, notice that the Boy-'n'-Party perps would repudiate that smear about "the good old sectarian way." They think, quite sincerely, that they stand for Nationalism (huzzah!) in the former Iraq. All three FOE's think that, although with the Supreme Hakemes the notion has to be glossed a little, maybe. Oddly enough, the only avowed sectarians are the Free Kurds, who are really only harmless sectorians.
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[1] If that is not how "wherever the truth may lie" decodes, then I cannot decode it.
If I got it right, the gentry of MJ are walking through a minefield here: in addition to the familiar problem of knocking some sense into the weaker brethren and sistern of their own faction, they face the problem of forgiving injuries done to somebody else and then inviting that somebody else to join in the reconciliation all ’round. A touchy business.
[2] This is more nearly reality-based than usual, though it could have been strronger still if Cartoono had emphasized the usefulness of anti-Qommienism outside the former Iraq -- playing on His Hashimí Highness's fears of a "Shí‘í crescent" and reminding everybody of Gen. Mubárak's casual assumption that every Twelver is a fifth columnist for the Safavids and so on and so forth.
[3] Cartoono neglects the North American apex of the iron triangle, though that is where most human events are dictated from. It should be added to his write-up that "playing on anti-Sadr sentiment" may work as well or better at Topeka than at Takrít. Militant extremist Republicans have not forgotten that the Mahdí Army ventured to shoot at their operatives, and as to forgivin’ -- forget it!
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