"Let's you and him surge"

The latest [1] round of fighting prompted a call from one of America's most respected retired officers, General Jack Keane, for British forces to reconsider their withdrawal from the city. The general, architect of America's "surge" policy in Iraq, has said Britain must do more to fight Iranian-backed gangs in Basra. "The security situation is worsening," he told the BBC's Today programme. "It is a myth to say that this is just a political problem. We must maintain security and stability in Basra and the surrounding provinces, which we do not have today."

"It is a myth to say that this is just a political problem" -- and there's a BINGO! for you, Mr. Bones. [2]

Now if Gen. Jack and fat Freddy K. had planned, or maybe even if Gen. Jack and the braniac Doctor General from West Point and Princeton had executed, the original aggression, the Grand Coalition of AEI and GOP and DOD might have fared far better. You might have thought, sir, that no crew of Hannibal wannabes, no matter how amateurish, could fail to notice that securing the Tigris from Babylon City down to the Gulf of Bitumen is sine quâ non. Even the brainless Brits of 1914-1918 figured that out eventually.

Militant Republican Party extremism managed not to think of the militarily obvious, however, and so we had all those years of Big Party semiconquest and stumblebummin’ in which the armed forces of AEI/GOP/DOD were garrisoned in the parts of the occupied provinces least worth them controllin’. The bozos of Rove may not be back to reality-basin’ even yet, because their Gen. Jack does not command anythin’ more at the moment than some brief attention from Daily Torygraphers.

It is only the Luminiferous Málikí [3] who has demonstrably grasped that he needs Basra the same way St. Abe needed Kentucky in 1861.

Though the neocomrade general's proposed use of brainless Brits as Hessians and Gurkhas charms Paddy and me, the national identity of the Grand Coalition's IED-fodder is not critical for violence-professional purposes. The least repugnant of unforgivable aggression fans, Rear-Colonel Fred Kaplan, discussed the central question Wednesday morning, 25 March 2008:

... look at what is happening. First, the surge is ending this July, not because it has been successful (as Bush has sometimes claimed) but because of simple math. The five extra combat brigades, which were deployed to Iraq with the surge, each have 15-month tours of duty; the 15 months will be up in July; the final brigade will go home; and the U.S. Army and Marines have NO combat brigades ready to replace them. To the extent that the surge has improved life in Baghdad, the end of the surge (the timing of which is inexorable) may make life worse.

After noticing that Bribe-a-Tribe™ is also happenin’, and allegedly runnin’ into difficulties, Kaplan reaches his ‘thirdly’:

Finally, the Shiite militias have resumed attacks in southern Iraq, a sign either that Sadr is losing control over his men or that he himself is backing away from the moratorium. In either case, it's unlikely that many Sunni militias—especially given the training and reinforcements they've received from U.S. armed forces—will stand by as the Shiite militias start fighting again. By the administration's own measures, then, victory in Iraq is not in sight, nor is there much evidence that the road we are treading will lead us toward that destiny.

The last sentence quoted indicates that Colonel Kaplan’s own analysis was conducted from the point of view of the pols rather than that of the violence pros, and more of holy Homeland politics than anything to do with Peaceful Freedumbia. Whether or not victory (or Victory, or ‘victory’) be in sight for Boy and Dynasty and Party and Ideology, Kaplan’s assertions about the available numbers of warm bodies of armed GOP operatives and about inter-Twelver troubles are factual enough. Neocomrade General Keane and poor M. al-Málikí appear to have put the two points together, as Col. Kaplan does not, and drawn the primâ facie obvious conclusion that if Basra is ever to be reconquered for Western Sieve and the Grand Coalition, [3] that had better happen muy pronto, because there will be fewer AEI/GOP/DOD mercs tomorrow than today, and fewer still the day after that.

Though both may be counted amongst the Friends of Freddy Kagan, M. al-Málikí and Citizen Jack do not see altogether eye-to-eye. The latter seems to have leapt to the conclusion that the current level of warm bodies is already inadequate, and therefore he must go try to scrape up some Gurkhas and Hessians on Airstrip One.

The Leader of All Progressive Mesopotamia , unsurprisingly, takes a more cheerful view. It is clear that he hopes to be able to grab control of Basra without requesting any ground troops from his big buddies at Rancho Crawford. It is not at all clear that his hopes are well founded, although of course if that sort of thing were clear in advance, warfare might go out of fashion altogether. The LAPM needs the troops of AEI and GOP and DOD as a safety net, just in case Marvin the ARVN still can’t hack it. It is only common sense to take the shrinkage of one’s safety nets into account and perform the high-wire act while they are larger rather than smaller. [5]

As to the neocomrade general's specific proposal, it seems unlikely that Her Britannic Majesty could loan AEI and GOP and DOD any additional IED fodder even if She wanted to -- which I expect She does not. If the Party perps are ever to conquer the world to the satisfaction of Kristol Minor and Podhóretz Minor, they will certainly have to come up with a cheap and reliable source of (other-ranks) violence pros, but Gen. Jack is lookin’ for that supply in a most unsuitable place. As it seems to me.

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[1] "Last Updated: 2:53am GMT 27/03/2008"


[2] The neocomrade general has to euphemize a little to make himself understood to the Party of Grant and the Ideology of Sumner. That should not diminish his BINGO! moment.

"Security and stability" will obtain when the paleface invasionites -- whether through indig proxies, or actin’ directly for themselves -- obtain a local monopoly on the effective use of physical force. You and I, Mr. Bones, are free to say "When they finally convert semiconquest to conquest proper." Executive slaves of AEI/GOP/DOD sincerely do not conceive of themselves as bein’ in the conquistador line of work. The hired help, includin’ their respected Gen. Jack, are more prepared to call things by their true names, but naturally there are limits beyond which honesty gets one unhired, or, if unhired already, disrespected and disregarded.


[3] The -ferous part is not present in the original. Indeed, Núrí may go to the same tune as Husní etymologically.

Politically and militarily, the emulation of Pres. Gen. Al Mubárak by the current Leader of All Progressive Mesopotamia promises to be an interesting show. Dr. ‘Alláwí did not pull the strongman trick off back when he was LAPM, but "past performance is no indication of future returns."


[4] In Party Chinese, "If security and stability in Basra and the surrounding provinces are to be maintained, ...."



[5] I wonder what the Proconsular Palace of the Party makes of poor M. al-Málikí's sudden fit of hannibalizing. Neocomrade R. Crocker will doubtless be pleased if the IZ neorégime pulls this caper off, but was he consulted about it in advance? Did he or his betters down at the ranch actually suggest it to the LAPM?

What’s that, Mr. Bones? . . . Well, yes, I do have certain doubts about Rear-Colonel Kaplan's guesses about the Basra caper's background. He cannot be absolutely sure about recent events himself, since he offers alternatives: "the Shiite militias have resumed attacks in southern Iraq, a sign EITHER that Sadr is losing control over his men OR that he himself is backing away from the moratorium." The second guess is close to being a truth universally acknowledged, but one can improve it, I think, by adding that the Rev. Señorito has been backing away from the IZ neorégime much as one backs away from a dog that seems likely to leap at one’s throat any moment: "Nice doggie, good doggie, how about a slice of civil disobedience, Fido?" And then suddenly . . . .

. . . No, sir, even the good colonel’s "have resumed attacks" is not altogether bilge and Party cries. Perhaps he should have said "have resumed counterattacks," but what’s a mere couple of syllables between friends? As I indicated above, Mr. Kaplan of Slate does not object to the March 2003 aggression in principle. As becomes a military correspondant, he manages not to view everything through a trashy Boy-Dynasty-Party-Ideology prism, but he’s got a Pentagon brand prism of his own. Squinted at through that medium, Master Muqtadae is essentially "anti-American," frozen forever in the 2004 act of shooting at armed operatives of AEI and GOP and DOD, give or take a few Marvins from the then Leader of All Progressive Mesopotamia.

Rear-Col. Kaplan wants that particular coonskin nailed to the wall, I am afraid, wants the particular item of unfinished business finished before the extremist Republican Party abandons its Peaceful Freedumbia to the natives thereof. (FK does actually want to get out of the bushogenic quagmire, you see, Mr. Bones, unlike some folks.) Though neither a GOP genius nor a card-carryin’ member of the Big Management Party’s base and vile, Col. Kaplan agrees with neocomrade Gen. Keane that there will be no proper "security and stability in Basra and the surrounding provinces" -- in the former Iraq as a whole -- so long as Muqtadae as-Sadr is walking the streets a free man.

This is all very regrettable, but it calls for a political sort of regret, whereas Citizen Fred’s scribbles are captioned "War stories: Military analysis" by his editors. About the Sadr Tendency as a player in the indig politics of the IZ neorégime, he cares little and knows not much more.

But God knows best.