The One-Fifth Column Hypothesis

Exhibit A.

Only ONE IN FIVE Israeli Jews believes a nuclear-armed Iran would try to destroy Israel and most see life continuing as normal should the Islamic Republic get the bomb, an opinion poll published on Sunday found. The survey, commissioned by a Tel Aviv University think-tank, appeared to challenge the argument of successive Israeli governments that Iran must be denied the means to make atomic weapons lest it threaten Israel's existence. Asked how a nuclear-armed Iran would affect their lives, 80 percent of respondents said they expected no change. Eleven percent said they would consider emigrating and 9 percent said they would consider relocating inside Israel.

Exhibit B.

Mir Hosain Mousavi was a plausible candidate for the reformists. They were electing people like him with 70 and 80 percent margins just a few years ago. We have not been had by the business families of north Tehran. We've much more likely been had by A HARD LINE CONSTITUENCY OF AT MOST 20% OF THE COUNTRY, who claim to be the only true heirs of the Iranian revolution, and who control which ballots see the light of day.

Exhibit C.

[C1] Barack Obama Democratic Illinois 69,456,897 52.92% John McCain Republican Arizona 59,934,814 45.66% [C2] The voter turnout for this election was broadly predicted to be very high by American standards, and a record number of votes were cast. The final tally of total votes counted was 131.2 million ... [which] ... could reflect a turnout as high as 63.0% of eligible voters, which would be the highest since 1960. This 63.0% turnout rate is based on an estimated eligible voter population of 208,323,000. Another estimate puts the eligible voter population at 212,720,027, resulting in a turnout rate of 61.7%, which would be the highest turnout rate since 1968. [C3 (Analysis)] 0.4566 * 0.617 = 0.2817

It is reasonable to assume--is it not, Dr. Bones?--that only twenty McCain voters in every twenty-eight supported the Fabulous Flyboy primarily because of his Party's militant extremism. Some of J. Sidney’s voters lived in Maine, for instance, and there are lots of other reasons to discount that 28% a little.

The alternative would be to decide that militant extremism flourishes here in the holy Homeland™ more than amongst the lesser breeds without -- a conclusion even my own cosmopolitan deracination would not be pleased to have to draw.

Anyhow, sir, there is the conjecture, all set for Popperian refutation:

Let observation with extensive view,
Survey mankind, from China to Peru:
How everywhere doth Wingnut City thrive,
Yet not beyond one faith-crazed part in five.