31 July 2007

"I Give You Our Party, Gentlemen, Wrong or Right!"

Our Party, Wrong, seems tolerably firmly seated in the saddle just at the moment:

The key and overwhelming reason voters prefer Clinton to Obama is that they believe she has more experience.


Of course if "experience" is to be the crux, we donkeys should have voted for John Quincy Adams in 1828 and thus never have become proper donkeys in the first place. Obviously we ought to have reëlected Taft in 1912, rather than let that crackpot academic in! 1932 was perhaps rather different: Dr. Hoover may retain the title of "Most Experienced American Pol Even" even as of August 2007, but he displayed, or was perceived as displaying, a singular unwillingness to learn from his multifarious experiences how to handle radical and displeasing novelty. And thus FDR snuck in somehow.

1932 still seems to be the beginning of political Modern Times to me, but perhaps the average polled donkey voter is so much younger than I that she thinks of FDR much as I think of Grover Cleveland? More likely she doesn't ever think of FDR at all and possesses no notion of him comparable to what Richard Hofstadter and Alan Nevis have furnished me with about our Grover.

Well, OK, sure, Change and Decay!, that was bound to happen sooner or later. Now that it has happened, though, I wonder exactly what date the special friends of Mizz Hillary and of "experience" in 2007 date their own donkeydom back to. Truman? JFK? LBJ? Jimmy Crater, even?

Probably Truman. Almost certainly Truman!

And that's rather fun, not only because the militant extremist Republicans want to appropriate HST to themselves, but because HST possessed even less antecedent "experience" in April 1945 of the special sort now demanded than the "naive and irresponsible" Senator from Illinois has in August 2007. Knowing how to be a successful machine pol in Kansas City is no doubt all very well in its way -- and let no donkey say a word against its way! --, but does that way automatically make one a predestined Tamer of Stalins?

What HST actually did, of course, was to assemble probably the most distinguished Cabinet (and kitchen cabinet) in all America's recorded annals and then mostly defer to their "experience" rather than rely upon his own. Was that an excellent plan in general, one for all donkey posterity to be edified and guided by forever, or did our Harry just accidentally luck out, expert-advicewise? Myself, I really dunno, one can read the tea leaves either way, especially considering what JFK subsequently let himself in for expert-advicewise with Sec. MacNamara and Sec. Rusk and others.

All that's as may be, at the moment the great thing is to notice that Mizz Hillary utterly ain't Harry Truman and that she shows not the slightest signs of proposing to trumanize. The "experience" in question is to be strictly Her Ladyship's individual own, unless maybe St. Bill counts for a little bit too at times. And 56% (as opposed to 37%) of us donkeys account Her Ladyship's unilateral and preëmptive "experience" the very thing required to set America right after the Crawford derailment! Not among them am I, for Lady Rodham is far too much like the other crew's current fruit for my 37% palate. To be sure, George XLIII does not fall back upon any mere Rodhamite personal "experience," of which he hadn't any at all before January 2001, but upon his Yale-and-Jesus-instructed gut feelin's. All the same, it's much the same spinach to me. (What's to say about that shtik, really, after one says "Yuck! It's spinach."?)

Turning to the per contra, I can't see how the "naive and irresponsible" Barak Obama could lose (for campaign purposes) by trumanizing explicitly, by expressly undertaking to be guided by all the Guidance and Wisdom available, the collective wisdom of us all, rather than flying solo as Her Ladyship obviously wants to, and as the GOP's Little Brother has, so very disastrously for his Uncle Sam, always flown solo.

Yet should the campaign be successful on that basis and culminate in "President Obama," it might not make much difference, at least as regards Uncle Sam's aggression and occupation policy. "President Obama" would immediately repair to Brookings and the CFR for top-notch wisdom and guidance, and there he'd be preached the usual bipartisan and credibilitarian (and sadly spinach-infested, me judice) sermons about Responsible Nonwithdrawal from the former Iraq, and then go on to doings not unlike what we'd get from "President Rodham" or "President Giuliani."

Wirklich wir leben in finsteren Zeiten! (But still, it's kinda fun to be alive to watch the show.)

Miss Rand's Iraq

Why not we look on the bright side? The Boy-'n'-Party quagmire need not be regarded as a blood-sodden wasteland of bigmanagerial incompetence, or at least not considered exclusively under that aspect. If only one starts with the right principles, one can consider the happy Land of Peace and Freedom (as it is right this minute) to be an achievement, not a botch.

The principles of those who shoot and bomb armed agents of the GOP as often as they can do not lend themselves to the exercise, however. The present state of the former Iraq is quite as unsatisfactory to them as to the Rancho Crawford mob: the Sunni Ascendancy has not been restored, and the Caliphate to come (which only some of the shootists crave, though all insist on the Ascendancy) has certainly not arrived yet. To be satisfied with the quagmire as it sogs means that one would prefer that these bad Twentypercenter ideas were not implemented, and equally that aggression should not pay for Republican Party extremism.

At this point there is a temptation to cheat by inventing a set of quagmire-friendly principles, some supposedly general rule that would never have entered one's head except in order to derive one particular application of it. During Secretary MacNamara's War, for instance, some amateur geopoliticians discovered that Commandment XI reads "Thou shalt not fight in another's civil war." That brainstorm was perverse as well as illogical, for where would the holy Homeland be now without M. de Lafayette and General de Rochambeau (and a few thousand untitled assistants)?[1]

So, then, one could consider the Sunni Ascendancy as constituting a subspecies of aggression and therefore to be condemned by the same criterion that condemns illegal forcible entry into other people's countries by the militant extremist GOP. On that basis one might relish the quagmire morally because it shows that "Aggression Doesn't Work!", or at least that sometimes it doesn't. To ascend to a higher level and relish it politically also would be problematical. One must lose at least a few points for allowing oneself to be perceived as happy enough that the former Iraq should be victimized indefinitely by a Sunni-Bushie struggle in order to point the anti-aggression moral and thus adorn one's tale. (Adorning the tale with parallels between the vigilante cowpokers and the resistance / insurgency / terrorism / guerrilla is easy enough, as for instance, both teams are afflicted with faith-crazies, and both take fathomlessly for granted that they are Natural Masters, endowed with a mastery that vote counting must never be allowed to impede.)

Yet the whole business remains shaky, for one did not in fact equate domestic tyranny with international aggression before just this minute. Obviously the two tend to travel together. It's certainly not an accident that the same perps who marched into Mesopotamia uninvited and strictly self-credentialled should be eager to snatch unheard-of powers of domestic surveillance and control for Boy and Party too. Or conversely, that the Ba‘thís extended their repertory from oppression at home to snatch-and-grab against their immediate neighbors. Nevertheless, tyranny is one thing and aggression another. Everybody talks that way, and everybody is quite right. To pretend that one's principles require one to talk differently is humbug, rather like announcing that better prenatal care is a matter of national defense. Naturally everybody wants strong and healthy Hessians, so there really is a connection, but trying to pass connection off as identity is unworthy of a rational creature.

At a less grandiose level, those who genuinely believe in the "Roach Motel" paradigm of the former Iraq ought to be gratified with the way things have been goin'. (I'm not sure that any such Kiddie Krusaders really exist, but certainly that line has been talked.) Should Dr. Gen. Petraeus attain an authentic Success and Victory for Boy and Party, then the motel would be closed down and very likely the roaches would all go infest Kansas City instead of New Baghdád. Wouldn't want that to happen!

==

But the obvious folks with preëxisting general principles that should lead them to rejoice in the spectacle of Peaceful Freedumbia just exactly as it stands now live on Planet Dilbert and call themselves "libertarians." (As a minor epicycle to them, there is the National Rifle Association: the former Iraq has got to be the Promised Land of gun noncontrol!) The good folks at Slogger City have a real treat for the devotees of Miss Rand of Petrograd and Mr. Nozick of Harvard this morning:

The Lebanese al-Akhbar daily reported that a “semi-official” autonomous government was announced yesterday in Southern Iraq. The paper said that “over 40 tribal chiefs from the provinces of Basra, Nasiriya, Amara and Samawa” have signed an agreement announcing the birth of a “self-ruling government” in the Shi'a-dominated southern provinces; and released a statement signed by “the administration of the autonomous government of the South.”

The new “government” elected ‘Abd al-Muhsin al-Shalash at its helm, and announced its commitment to the Iraqi constitution “at the present time,” adding that the “government” intends to amend the constitution in the future.

The newspaper did not add further details regarding the local support to the new council, or whether the founders of the “autonomous government” have links with the major political parties. But al-Akhbar pointed [out] that the current constitution allows an Iraqi province (or a number of provinces) to form a “region,” which, if approved by a popular referendum, would be acknowledged by the government and would be granted a large measure of autonomy, including a regional government and parliament. The paper said that the founding of the “autonomous government” may be a first step in entrenching “Iraqi federalism ... which, is (currently) applied solely in the Kurdistan Region.”


Golly, Mr. Bones, a semi-official autonomous self-ruling government of the South! Who'd 'a' thunka that? [2]

Whole-hog Nozickians and Randites will not be entirely happy with the Baní Shallásh, I daresay. "[C]ommitment to the Iraqi constitution 'at the present time'" falls well short of "Smash the State!" On the other hand, have the principles of Planet Dilbert ever been put into terrestrial practice to the same extent elsewhere? If so, I do not recall the instance.

The Baní Shallásh are a bit more dilbertarian than the newspaper lets on, because they are "committed" to the Khalílzád Konstitution after a fashion that is thoroughly unkonstitutional, there being no provision in the Great Charter of Peaceful Freedumbia for behaving as they have behaved. As often, parallels between Ancient Poland and the brave new former Iraq come to mind, especially in conjunction with the Planet Dilbert side of the bushogenic bog. Are the Baní Shallásh not much like what the lovers and practitioners of zlota wolnosc used to call a "confederation," konfederacja?[3]

To make the parallel perfect, these unwitting (?) fans of Poland-the-Model and Planet Dilbert will have to defend their self-ruling semiofficial autonomy with the sword and the Kalashnikov. They wouldn't have to win, but they would have to fight, and thus the question of how much popular support they have becomes urgent, whether support be connected with major political parties or not.[4]


___
[1] That dottiness might make a come-back considering the state of the aggression, although I have yet to see it stated clearly. Perhaps it had some slight influence on the subconscious mind of the invasionites, however, who long resisted anybody referring to "civil war" when contemplating their Party's quagmire. However it is more likely that the bozos rejected the phrase instantly just for soundin' like bad news and castin' doubts on the quality of their bigmanagement.

Ms. Conventional Wisdom's distinction of "insurgency" from "civil war" does not apply very well to either the former Iraq or the former South Vietnam, but as regards the bumpersticker there is no difference of any importance. If you are gung-ho for invasions and occupations, you don't primarily rely on either phrase, you thunder against Global Terrorism instead. (Against International Communism, in the Indochina case.)

Only a universal menace can make the dogma of Preëmptive Retaliation plausible nowadays, in rulin' circles at least. The Party base-and-vile at Rio Limbaugh are another matter, for it is clear that some of them still think like Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg (BH came as close to being a GOP extremist as any mere foreigner can): aggression into Belgium in 1914 was permissible as preëmptive retaliation against a threat to the holy Homeland without there being any need to pretend that it was a threat to Belgium (or to all the world) as well. Like the Right of Conquest, that attitude became decidedly unfashionable in the course of Century XX. We might consider bringing them both back, because all the ill effects happen anyway, only with a lot of pious Pharasaism and tedious twistification tacked on as camouflage.


[2] Perhaps the Jefferson Davis neorégime would have flourished better than it did had it aspired to be only a semi-official autonomous government of the South?


[3] The best write-up of the palaeo-Polonian quagmire in English occurs in a preface to the Everyman edition of Pan Tadeusz. In short, the nie pozwalam! made it impossible for the official government to get anything done, and thus there had to be semi-official self-ruling autonomous governments as well, "confederations" in which policy could be decreed by a majority rather than a total unanimity. The policy decreed had then to be imposed upon the whole Commonwealth by force. All of this was considered by the writer to happen within the (unwritten) Polish Constitution rather than outside it.

Peaceful Freedumbia with Zalmáy's tripe and baloney written down is not 100% parallel, but in practice things were often so quagmirish in Poland and Lithuania than even an extremist Republican might recognize the resemblance. On the other hand, the anarchy was entirely indigenous, there is no figure in the annals of Poland equivalent to Khalílzád Pasha imposing the anarchy for utterly exogenous reasons of Boy and Party.


[4] I'm too lazy to describe the Planet Dilbert side of the former Iraq in detail at the moment, but surely Randites and Nozickians cannot have failed to notice and applaud the approximation to "competing governments" involved in the rise of the Sadr Tendency and, indeed, in the phenomenon of the Lebanese God Party as well. As with the Baní Shallásh, there are various admixtures of "sectarianism" and the like in the Rev. Muqtadá and the Rev. Fadlalláh that St. Petersburg or Harvard Yard purists are bound to deplore. They ought to consider, in my opinion, that their cup of bliss is half full rather than half empty. Planet Dilbert is after all very far removed from Planet Earth, and to expect an instant and total conversion of muddled earthlings to the True Antistatist Faith is not only impatient and hasty, but positively unreasonable.

On the other hand, if they prefer to be gloomy Gusses about it, they are not without grounds to adduce:

(1) The promising potentialies in the former Iraq would not exist at all except for the exertions of that particular Wicked State that is ruled from Crawford TX. Congressman Dr. Ron Paul, also of TX as well as of Planet Dilbert, is well aware of this angle.

(2) It seems undeniable that a great many muddled earthlings, especially in Greater Texas, recidivated seriously from the True Antistatist Faith on the occasion of the Pentagon/WTC attacks and will now require to be reconverted.

How this second setback is accounted for on Planet Dilbert, I have not inquired. My own amateur speculation would be, first, that "Smash the State!" and "Smash the Terrorists!" are emotionally equivalent and, secondly, that most of the strayed catechumens had never advanced to a rational rather than sentimental apprehension of the True Antistatist Faith. Dilbertarianism is an extremely high-and-dry acquired taste for most muddled earthlings, so it is not a great surprise to me that many of the former faithful should defect from Glenlivet to Mogen David, as it were.

30 July 2007

Around The Bend With Muscle Mike

Grand Ayatollah Mikey Bin Ledeen has fulminated yet another fatwá against the rest of the Boy-'n'-Party crew, who are too dumb to make out who they ought to be bombin'. Big Brother and poor M. al-Málikí are all palsy-walsy as far as the former is concerned, exchangin' deepthink about God and Leadership and other such lofty sublimities. How can an Ivy League alumnus, nay, an MBA of the Harvard Victory School!, fail to see that he is bein' take in by a con man who is backed by Ultimate Evil?

It is also undoubtedly true that Maliki is widely viewed — by Iraqis of various sectarian labels — as an often excessively enthusiastic ally of Iran. This is no surprise, since his Dawa party evolved from an infamous Iranian-backed terrorist group of the same name.


How can it be that George XLIII of Kennebunkport-Crawford has missed that undoubted truth? You don't have to answer, though, because His Eminence has already worked what's wrong. Little Brother does not pay enough attention to the local press in his colonies:

General Petraeus’s job is constantly made even more difficult by the actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and often in ways reported — so far as I know — by the local (that is, Iraqi and other regional) media.[1] Take last week, for example, when a major powwow among the Iraqi political leaders was abruptly terminated. It had been expected that the usual suspects, ranging from Kurds to Sunnis and Shiites, would meet in Baghdad to sort out their disagreements about ways to amend the Constitution, distribute oil wealth, and so forth. Everyone from Moqtadah al Sadr to ex-PM Iyad Allawi was going to come. Prime Minister Maliki was under great pressure from Washington and from Petraeus to make some political progress to match the military successes of recent months, and hopes were fairly high that something worthwhile would come out of the talks. But, according to Az-Zaman:

the breakdown occurred when the Iranian government “officially” requested that ex-Prime Minister Iyad 'Allawi be excluded from the talks, a request that was rejected by the Sunni IAF. As a result, the paper added, Kurdish leader Mas'ud al-Barazani may no longer travel to Baghdad, as was expected, to participate in the dialogue.

Now Az-Zaman is just a local paper, and even the best paper gets it wrong, so this assertion may well be wrong in one detail or another.


Now of course the Times of Bazzázistán is in no useful sense a local fishwrap native to brave New Baghdád, it's only a recent acquisition of, or accession to, the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust, a "pan-Arab" organ of the Intergalactic Sunnintern. Since Ayatollah Bin Ledeen takes money from customers of tertiary education for knowin' all about the Greater Levant, the chances that he does not know this fact are zero. But why should he mention it, or even allude to it (except maybe by that odd tutorial shuffle of his about how the one particular extract might conceivably be impugned,), when Ledeenianity and the Sunnintern happen to agree? The great thing is to see the Qommie Menace clearly and distinctly and then be scared [w]itless. Perhaps the AAPT doesn't see quite exactly what His Eminence sees when they gaze at the black dawnin' in the East, but so what? They're obviously terrorized of it and they hate the Safavid monsters who put them in fear, and that's quite enough to be gettin' on with. Obviously the urgent task is to make Little Brother and the GOP geniuses and perhaps also the Big Party base-and-vile as terrorized of and venomous against as the Sunnintern already is! "Details can be sorted out afterwards, people, please. Qommies are worse than Nazis, after all! Would FDR and Stalin and Churchill have hesitated to accept the (significant) aid of anti-Hitlerites in 1942 just because their primary reason for fear and hatred of Adolf was the man's Satanic vegetarianism? [2]"

And yet Little Brother seems not to agree with Chicken Little and Ayatollah Bin Ledeen about the Qommie Menace! He's now actually talkin' to 'em, sort of, by way of Proconsul Crocker! Day by day, Little Brother shows more and more signs of lapsin' wholesale into the Hambaker or ISG heresies. In that case, why not Little Brother just resigns, plus Oilslick Dick too, and then poor Sam's Executive Branch is handed over to a "bipartisan foreign policy élite" that wants to coddle Ultimate Evil and cuddle up with Qommies?

So far, so good, but Mikey Cardinal Ledeen does not exactly see eye-to-eye with the Intergalactic Sunnintern about the former Iraq:

Thus, in a paradoxical way, our mounting success on the battlefield makes political compromise more difficult for Iraqi leaders, because the Iranian gorilla is in the conference room even though he does not appear in the official accounts. And that gorilla is prepared to smash all the furniture if he does not get his way. At the moment, things are going badly for him and his terrorist friends, and the gorilla is doing everything he can to prevent his losses from being institutionalized.

It appears that the Anbar model is spreading to other regions, and involving Shiites as well as Sunnis. Notice, please, that the Anbar pacification involves Sunnis fighting against other Sunnis, and in other areas we have Shiites fighting against other Shiites. This will surprise only those State Department, academic, and CIA “experts” who have so vociferously insisted that conflict in Iraq is invariably ethnic. It will not surprise those who have spent time in Iraq, and noticed the remarkably high rate of intermarriage between these two groups of theoretically irreconcilable enemies.


Little Mikey is a predestinate social-scientizer, obviously. I've spent about fifty-eight years (of 61) in the holy Heimatland myself without ever catching so much as a single direct glimpse of any "rate of intermarriage," high or low, -- and that no matter what MBL or anybody else means by "inter-" exactly. (My perceptual betters see things invisible to me, no doubt. Woe is me, I've never actually seen any "rate" at all with the naked eye! By Faith I believe that "rates" really do exist and really do matter, but if I was reduced to relying on mere Lockean Experience, well, who knows?)

Dr. Righteous Virtue, that berserker ideologue Viking somehow cast ashore in Gulf Coast Mesopotamia, would quite agree with little Mikey Bin Ledeen -- and ain't that about the strangest bedfellowship ever! "Theoretically irreconciliable enemies" was not a good way for little Mikey to word it, though, for who among us palefaces had any theories about the former Iraq before the militant extremist GOP rushed in to formerize everythin' in sight? Things change, and in the GOP's Peaceful Freedumbia change has been very, very rapid. Mikey himself says

Left to their own devices, the Iraqis would undoubtedly have made considerable progress toward national unity, and a representative government worthy of the name. But the Iraqis are not left alone, because the battle that is currently being waged in their country is part of a larger war, in which the most dangerous force is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until Iran is defeated, Iraqi leaders will always cater to the edicts coming from Tehran.


Here we arrive at a complete disjunction: little Mikey Bin Ledeen's private ideas of "a larger war" overlap scarcely at all with what the Big Party aggressors of March 2003 were aggressin' officially and on behalf of their Uncle Sam for. Had the GOP geniuses and their Party base-and-vile seen the world through 20/20 BinLedeenian lenses, they should have marched straight to Qom and Tehrán and bypassed Baghdád and Najaf. Once chop out the Heart of Darkness, and soon the veins of Darkness and the arteries of Darkness will cease to throb or matter. The GOP Kiddie Krusade should (as Ledeenianity now preaches -- possibly only retrospectively?) have gone straight for the Jugular of Darkness, not wasted even an instant of time or a smidgen of effort on mere capillaries of Darkness like former GOP ally Saddám Husayn.

Mr. Bones and I don't much care for either disputant in this intramural Wingnut City fratboy food fight between the Grand Ayatollah's "larger war" and the Big Management Party's "long war." We humble don't even want "smaller and shorter" than any crew of militant extremist neo-bozos want, what we want is utterly nothing more of THEIR sort at all. Plus it would be nice, though optional, to get rid of THEM personally as well.

But God knows best.[1]


___
[1] Short of His knowldge, how about Eddie Burke's?

"I flatter myself that I love a manly, moral, regulated liberty as well as any gentleman of that society, be he who he will; and perhaps I have given as good proofs of my attachment to that cause, in the whole course of my public conduct. I think I envy liberty as little as they do, to any other nation. But I cannot stand forward, and give praise or blame to anything which relates to human actions, and human concerns, on a simple view of the object, as it stands stripped of every relation, in all the nakedness and solitude of metaphysical abstraction. Circumstances (which with some gentlemen pass for nothing) give in reality to every political principle its distinguishing colour and discriminating effect. The circumstances are what render every civil and political scheme beneficial or noxious to mankind. Abstractedly speaking, government, as well as liberty, is good; yet could I, in common sense, ten years ago, have felicitated France on her enjoyment of a government (for she then had a government) without inquiry what the nature of that government was, or how it was administered? Can I now congratulate the same nation upon its freedom ? Is it because liberty in the abstract may be classed amongst the blessings of man-kind, that I am seriously to felicitate a madman, who has escaped from the protecting restraint and wholesome darkness of his cell, on his restoration to the enjoyment of light and liberty ? Am I to congratulate a highwayman and murderer, who has broke prison, upon the recovery of his natural rights? This would be to act over again the scene of the criminals condemned to the galleys, and their heroic deliverer the metaphysic knight of the sorrowful countenance."

Son of Guantánamo, or, Invasion-Based Jurisprudence

Republican Party militarism has outdone itself:

In a city plagued by suicide bombers and renegade[1] militias, the Americans and the Iraqi government have turned to an unusual measure to help implant the rule of law: they have erected a legal Green Zone, a heavily fortified compound to shelter judges and their families and secure the trials of some of the most dangerous suspects. The Rule of Law Complex, as it is known by the Iraqi government, is in the Baghdad neighborhood of Rusafa and held its first trial last month.


If this article were a fiction, one might complain that the euphemisms should have been reversed, with Son of Guantánamo called "the legal Green Zone" in Neoliberated South Semitic, and "the Rulalaw complex" in Party Chinese rather than vice versa.[2] But apart from that, it's esthetically perfect.

The set-up seems not to be practically perfect yet, though. The perps have still a long way to go with their own program:

The utility of the fortified complex, however, depends on more than a single high-profile case. Ultimately, it will depend on the Iraqis’ ability to expand their capacity to try cases at the complex as well as their track record in applying justice evenhandedly to Shiites and Sunnis alike. The notion of helping the Iraqis establish protected legal enclaves is an important element of the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq. The hope is that a network of legal complexes will be established in other parts of Iraq, starting with the capital of Anbar Province, Ramadi, where work is expected to begin in the next several months.


Let Congress and Televisionland think twice before cutting off this supralegal equivalent of Johnny Appleseed! If "we" don't uphold GOP military supremacy in the former Iraq for another decade or so, almost certainly the landscape of invasion will never become dotted with "protected legal complexes" at all. The indig politicians have their faults, admittedly, but at least they'd never have thought of anything as swell as this. If they were deprived untimely of PetraeoCrockerian guidance, they doubtless would not waste ten dinars on perpetuating it.[3] Like many imports associated with the paleface Party crusaders, this one is so alien that it might as well have come from Mars instead of from Greater Texas. No other (indigenous) state in the Greater Levant has anything the least bit like it. The new Johnny Appleseed might as well be scattering pineapple plants all across Alaska and the Yukon.

Still, "the utility of the fortified complex" cannot be evaluated until we decide what the gadget is supposed to do:

Since the court began hearing cases in June it has tried 43 suspects, a rate of about one suspect a day. (...) The Rusafa prison’s capacity, which started at 2,500, will expand by more than 5,000 by the end of the summer. The main detention building at Rusafa is cleaner and less malodorous than many Iraqis jails, but with 15 detainees in each cell the conditions had reached maximum capacity under international standards.


Five thousand kidnap victims and only forty-three trials? Surely what we have here is only a concentration camp with slightly unusual trimmin's?


The Boy-'n'-Party stumblebums are, I suppose, genuinely blind to how bad the Gitmo Gimmick makes them look. It throws up in everybody's face the fact that the GZ collaborationist pols they back do not control "their own" country, that the sixth occupation neorégime can neither protect its subjects' lives and property nor do justice among them, matters usually right at the top of lists of What Government Is Good For. (One strain of Republican Party extremism likes to pretend that government is no good at all, but Planet Dilbert cannot have had any hand in these doin's. Just ask Congressman R. Paul!) [4]








____
[1] Hmm. Do the employees of the New York Times Company know that this insult used to have a definite meaning?


[2] The underlying expression "Green Zone" has been officially purged from Party Chinese, as you'll perhaps remember. On the other hand, why should you remember? Few neocomrades, however loyal to Boy and Party, recall that they are supposed to speak of the fortified enclosure surrounding the Proconsular Palace of the Party as "the International Zone." One may speculate that this particular rectification of language has failed to catch on with the base-and-vile, and even most of the presiding GOP geniuses, because it would be a move towards accuracy. The seat of the Occupyin' Power and its native neorégime is undoubtedly international rather than Iraqi. Whether it is "green" in the sense of safe and secure is far more open to dispute.


[3] Was the Gitmo Gimmick really "an important element of the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker"? Did the Party of Original Intent originally intend this as part of its Ever-Victorious Surge of '07™? Consider that we have to do with a crew of stumblebums who retrospectively offered six dozen "real" reasons why they aggressed their way into the former Iraq, once the real "real" reason had became unworkable because Tony Blair's terror-tipped 45-minute-specials were concealed so cleverly that they've never yet come to light.

Might they not be up to their old tricks again? All indications are that the auditors will find a serious benchmark deficit in the Big Management Party's occupation accounts a couple of months from now. Perhaps they are tryin' to fadge up a few Potemkin benchmarks of their own to distract attention with, "But Dad, the report card wouldn't look half so bad if extracurricular activities counted too ...!"? A good many Democrats are likely to agree that the Gitmo Gimmick is indeed a swell idea, but hopefully they'll manage to notice that it is a distraction even so.

It was not a sufficiently important element in the Ever-Victorious Surge of '07™ to have been prominently mentioned before this morning. Whether it was mentioned unprominently somewhere, who knows? In any case, "the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker" is presumably not something written up in Party Chinese or PowerPoint and conveniently available in any one document. The EVS07 has been gettin' vaguer and vaguer ever since Rear Colonel F. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute first conceived it and explained it in meticulous detail to the readership of the Weekly Standard in about May 2006. Obviously what the perps are surgin' for, and what they are surgin' against, can change almost minute by minute, and this would have been the case even if benchmarks had never been invented.

In these circumstances it is natural enough that Boy and Party should rely so heavily on autoleakage as they have been doin' recently. If they don't tell us where they'd prefer the goalposts to be located today, we may fail to give them proper credit when K. Rove assures us that "we" just scored a touchdown. It won't do the PetraeoCrockerians any good to parade the Gitmo Gimmick in September to an audience that utterly never heard of such a thing, so clearly they had to invite Mr. Michael R. Gordon into their lair and hand him a press release about it at the end of July. As happened last week at the NYTC, the Rancho Crawford press release is reproduced more or less as is, though doubtless rearranged and reworded to taste. The only bit that might have been added runs as follows:

An Iraqi investigator at the Rusafa complex raised another concern: sectarian agendas at the Interior Ministry. The investigator, who cannot be identified under the complex’s security procedures, said ministry officials had made him the subject of an inquiry when he expressed his intention to marry a Sunni woman. “What kind of investigation is that?” he said with undisguised contempt.


(Not a hard question. It was a loyalty investigation, obviously, rather like what Joe McCarthy used to do.)

It seems more likely that some kind paleface colonel or general introduced Mr. Gordon to Ibn Fulán, Esq., however, since he is extremely ben trovato for Boy and Party on a slightly different propaganda front, not to mention being exactly the sort of neo-liberated they wish there were many more of, nominally a Twelver, but really a member of the rootless cosmopolitan theocommunity, a "secularist." The authors of the press release perhaps intended us to conclude that part of the niftiness of the Gitmo Gimmick is that it allows invasion-based Rulalaw to be untampered with by evil sectarian influences. Inside "protected legal complexes" one can practice Protected Law, as it were. Or perhaps it would be more accurate to speak of Protectorate Law.

Had Mr. Gordon cared to venture some investigative journalism, he might have tried to determine exactly how much influence the GZ quasiministry of justice actually has over what happens inside this cage. Or any other indigs, for that matter. The authors of the press release were, unsurprisingly, not much concerned about what sort of law it is that gets protected, although elements of Civil Law procedure briefly emerge from the murk:

Under Iraqi procedures, the main phase for recording evidence takes place before the trial when an investigative judge questions witnesses and prepares a report for the panel of judges to review. The trials themselves seem relatively brief to observers familiar with the American system. With the extensive security at Rusafa, it is not easy for Iraqis to attend the trials, so videotapes of the proceedings are made.


No doubt we were not intended to wonder exactly how relatively brief trials fit together with only one trial per day. Somebody seems not to be tryin' very hard! Yet of course if the concentration camp aspect is the cake and the production of couutroom video products only icin', everything makes sense, and the resemblance to the Big Party's Guantánamo Bay legal kangarooism becomes blatant.


[4] It seems unlikely that the stumblebums are applyin' the Leninist maxim about "The worse, the better" here, although in theory they might fortify their contention that the happy Land of Peace and Freedom is not to be abandoned any decade soon lest genocide break out in the wake of the GOP by pointin' out that without Party troops and Party barbed wire and Party videotape &c. &c., ordinary criminal justice cannot be carried on in it. Not even in the capital of it!


















In Baghdad, Justice Behind the Barricades
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Baghdad, July 26 — In a city plagued by suicide bombers and renegade militias, the Americans and the Iraqi government have turned to an unusual measure to help implant the rule of law: they have erected a legal Green Zone, a heavily fortified compound to shelter judges and their families and secure the trials of some of the most dangerous suspects.

The Rule of Law Complex, as it is known by the Iraqi government, is in the Baghdad neighborhood of Rusafa and held its first trial last month.

For Iraqi officials, working at the compound is so fraught with risk that it often requires separating themselves and their families from life outside the complex’s gates.

“Our work is really a challenge,” said a judge who lives in the compound with his wife and children and whose identity is protected by the court’s security procedures. “I have not seen Baghdad for three months.”

The court’s first defendant was a Syrian militant, Ramsi Ahmed Ismael Muhammed, known by the nom de guerre Abu Qatada. Tried on charges of kidnapping, killing his hostages and carrying out other bloody attacks, he was convicted in the complex’s high-surveillance courtroom and sentenced to death.

The utility of the fortified complex, however, depends on more than a single high-profile case. Ultimately, it will depend on the Iraqis’ ability to expand their capacity to try cases at the complex as well as their track record in applying justice evenhandedly to Shiites and Sunnis alike.

The notion of helping the Iraqis establish protected legal enclaves is an important element of the American campaign plan prepared by Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq. The hope is that a network of legal complexes will be established in other parts of Iraq, starting with the capital of Anbar Province, Ramadi, where work is expected to begin in the next several months.

The Rusafa complex, across the Tigris River to the east of the government Green Zone in central Baghdad, is still in its early days. Since the court began hearing cases in June it has tried 43 suspects, a rate of about one suspect a day.

The United States provides criminal investigators, lawyers and a paralegal staff to train the Iraqis to run the complex, which also includes accommodations for witnesses, investigators, the Baghdad Police College and an expanding number of detainees. The 55-member American team includes Justice Department and military personnel as well as contractors, and there are only four Iraqi investigators.

But an additional 26 Iraqi investigators are being trained by the F.B.I., according to Michael F. Walther, a senior United States Justice Department official who runs the American military’s Law and Order Task Force. And by next March, the small courtroom where Abu Qatada was tried is to be replaced by an $11 million court built with American reconstruction funds.

The Central Criminal Court in Baghdad is expected to conduct about 5,000 trials this year. Col. Mark S. Martins, the staff judge advocate for General Petraeus’s military command, estimates that once the new Rusafa court is built the complex will be able to handle about one third of that caseload. The Iraqi government will take over the cost of protecting and operating the complex next month and has approved $49 million for the effort.

Despite its status as a protected area for trying Iraq’s most infamous terrorists and militants, the Rule of Law Complex is not immune from the many problems roiling Iraq’s legal system. They include the crush of detainees that has emerged with the surge of American and Iraqi military operations. To try to reduce the backlog of cases, detainees from overcrowded jails in Kadhimiya and elsewhere have been transported to Rusafa, where they are fingerprinted and given retina scans.

The Rusafa prison’s capacity, which started at 2,500, will expand by more than 5,000 by the end of the summer. The main detention building at Rusafa is cleaner and less malodorous than many Iraqis jails, but with 15 detainees in each cell the conditions had reached maximum capacity under international standards.

When a reporter was escorted by the Iraqi prison director through one of the newly erected tent-covered jails a short drive away, a detainee who gave his name as Dawood Yousef, 46, pressed his way to the bars and yelled that he had been picked up in a sweep of Abu Ghraib and had spent five months in various jails, including a month in Rusafa, without being told why he had been arrested or when his case would go to trial. Colonel Martins took down the details.

An Iraqi investigator at the Rusafa complex raised another concern: sectarian agendas at the Interior Ministry. The investigator, who cannot be identified under the complex’s security procedures, said ministry officials had made him the subject of an inquiry when he expressed his intention to marry a Sunni woman. “What kind of investigation is that?” he said with undisguised contempt.

Under Iraqi procedures, the main phase for recording evidence takes place before the trial when an investigative judge questions witnesses and prepares a report for the panel of judges to review. The trials themselves seem relatively brief to observers familiar with the American system. With the extensive security at Rusafa, it is not easy for Iraqis to attend the trials, so videotapes of the proceedings are made.

In a legal system that has relied heavily on confessions and less on forensic investigations at the crime scene, there are often allegations of torture. In a July 3 trial at the Rusafa court, the judges acquitted four defendants of murder and rape on the grounds that their confessions appeared coerced. Medical reports pointed to possible torture, and physical evidence was lacking. The stunned defendants received the verdict with enormous relief, according to a videotaped record of the trial.

The Americans say they have been encouraged by the tenacity with which the investigators pursued Abu Qatada, in particular. “We called him the wolf,” said a judge who was involved in investigating the case. “It was not easy to get him to talk.”

The investigators relied heavily on witnesses, who were taken through a special entrance in the court offices so they could be interviewed confidentially. Their statements were entered in a file that only the judges were allowed to read. The evidence in the file was enough to persuade the panel of three judges, one Sunni and two Shiites, to convict Abu Qatada on two counts: possessing weapons as part of an armed group opposing the state, which led to a 30-year sentence, and terrorist crimes, which were deemed a capital offense. His conviction and punishment are being appealed.

A more demanding test of the impartiality of the system will come soon when a Shiite national policeman comes to trial. Identified only as Lt. Col. A, he is being tried on charges that he assaulted and tortured dozens of Sunni captives in his custody on behalf of a Shiite militia.

29 July 2007

Agress! Invade!! Impose!!!

“The idea, as in Bosnia, is to maintain a united Iraq by decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group — Kurd, Sunni Arab and Shiite Arab — room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests,” Mr. Biden and Mr. Gelb wrote in their Op-Ed on May 1, 2006. “We could drive this in place with irresistible sweeteners for the Sunnis to join in, a plan designed by the military for withdrawing and redeploying American forces, and a regional nonaggression pact.”


Notice that the gruesome twosome take for granted that natives can be bribed as well as shoved around. "Irresistable sweeteners," forsooth!

28 July 2007

If You Can't Lick 'Em, ...

The other day Rear-Colonel Kaplan of Slate wrote up the Crawfordites' most recent self-serving about occupation strategy for the former Iraq, the one in which Dr. Gen. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton and his immediate circle of groupies prescinded from mere politics and dreamed about surgin' on into the summer of 2009. To a slight extent Kaplan was suckered, for he did not perceive, or did not mention perceiving, that such a press release would never have reached the New York Times except after passin' through Big Management censorship, and the reason this leakage got the nihil obstat was that the Dr. Gen. would get a more respectful hearing from the commentariat than would what's left of the chickenhawk aggression crew, say their Master Hadley or their Dr. Rice or their neo-SECDEF.

Château Kennebunkport, maybe even Castle Cheney, have been reduced to pretendin' that now at last they are goin'ta let the violence professionals make their aggression and occupation policies for them. They back off from their inveterate Bourbonism a little, having noticed that a Petraeus Plan has certain political advantages that a Gates Gimmick would lack, especially marketin'wise. In a sense this is logical enough from a depraved GOP point of view: they've long since given up carin' what kind of Success and Victory they obtain from wreckin' the former Iraq, PetraeoSuccess and PetraeoVictory would do as well as anythin' else, so far as regards their actual substance, provided, of course, that Congress and Televisionland can be persuaded that these products are the real thing and not just cheap fakes. The real difficulty, should PetraeoVictory improbably eventuate, would be the embarrassment to Big Management involved in the lowly hired hands actually accomplishin' what the executive OnePercenters spent years failin' at ignominiously. Possibly in that case the perps will admit the laurel-freighted Dr. Gen. into their executive suite, even without an MBA from the Harvard Victory School. After all, nobody who seriously disliked the extremist GOP would have taken the job that the Dr. Gen. took, fourth start or no fourth star. Over on the braniac side, the prospective Saviour of their Party does not seem to be quite in the Douglas MacArthur class, although it's not so clear that he realizes as much. There have been certain slight signs that the Dr. Gen. is already runnin' for the Republican presidential nomination, although to be fair, perhaps he has to talk that way just to keep Congress from pullin' the plug on all his paths of glory.

In any case, it will be obvious that I take the Dr. Gen. to be essentially a Party animal, whereas Rear-Colonel Kaplan evaluates him as a hired hand, by purely meritocratic and technocratic criteria, exactly as Château Kennebunkport wishes everybody to do. Kaplan's bottom line is curious, though scarcely Panglossian:

If the United States pulls out, Iraq's sectarian warfare would probably intensify. If the United States stays in and the surge continues, Iraqi violence might be contained, but 700 to 1,000 more American soldiers will probably die each year—and there will be only a one in 10 chance that the strategy will succeed (by rather minimal standards of success). So, this is the question: Is the price worth the gamble? Bush has put more chips on the table, fully aware of the odds. Will the members of Congress keep bankrolling him? How risk-prone are they? And, ultimately, how much risk will the American voters feel like swallowing when they go to the polls next fall?


Kaplan mostly borrows his non-verdict from a certain Neocomrade S. Biddle, one of the more rightist CFR gentry, whom Kaplan takes to be a sort of brain behind Dr. Gen. Braniac. Indeed, Biddle's brainstorms, as described, accord better with what the Dr. Gen. is actually doin' with all those chips than textbook MacNamario-Petraean neocounterinsurgency does. Perhaps we ought to have the neocomrade's own estimate of his ingenuities, which FK conveniently provides:

It is worth noting that Biddle himself has serious doubts about the whole notion. In his interview with Gwertzman, he said the odds that the surge and the new strategy might work—that is, that they might produce "something like stability and security in Iraq"—are "maybe one in 10." Whether those odds are worth gambling on, he said, depends on whether you're averse or prone to risk. Biddle described himself as risk-averse. Therefore, if the decision was up to him, he'd pull the troops out. President Bush, he said, "is clearly very tolerant of risk." And so he's pouring more in.


Here again I suspect that we are not dealing with pure hired-handedness, though Kaplan takes it all at face value. "I wouldn't bet at odds of ten-to-one," whispers the tipster, "but then I happen to be risk-averse." Could he perhaps anticipate that every red-blooded Greater Texan lad will despise such craven prudence and rush to make the bet in order to express his despite? If that's the Biddle diddle, it didn't work on stolid Fred Kaplan. But then FK obviously did not approach the analyst or con man with a completely open mind, having turned "something like stability and security in Iraq" into his own "succeed (by rather minimal standards of success)" without explaining what's so minimal about stability and security. [1]

Whatever editor headlined the piece "Interesting, But Doomed? Why Petraeus' intriguing new Iraq strategy will probably fail" may or may not have been putting even more risk-averse words into Rear-Colonel Kaplan's mouth than belong there. One chance in ten is perhaps not quite as bleak as "doomed," is it?

"Intriguing" is more interesting than "doomed," though. The Petraus Procedure or Biddle Diddle is indeed a "policy of intrigue," there is no doubt about that, but as to being particularly spell-bound by it, well, count me out. First, though, we need the latest news on what chips our betters are gamin' with here:

BAGHDAD, July 27 -- The U.S. military in Iraq is expanding its efforts to recruit and fund armed Sunni residents as local protection forces in order to improve security and promote reconciliation at the neighborhood level, according to senior U.S. commanders. Within the past month, the U.S. military command in charge of day-to-day operations in Iraq ordered subordinate units to step up creation of the local forces, authorizing commanders to pay the fighters with U.S. emergency funds, reward payments and other monies.

The initiative, which extends to all Iraqis, represents at least a temporary departure from the established U.S. policy of building formally trained security forces under the control of the Iraqi government. It also provokes fears within the Shiite-led government that the new Sunni groups will use their arms against it, commanders said. The goal is to put the new, irregular forces in place quickly -- hiring them on contracts and providing them with uniforms without waiting for access to lengthy police and army training programs.

The initiative arises out of efforts underway by some U.S. military units to enlist forces from local tribes as well as insurgent groups in different neighborhoods, most of which have been predominantly Sunni.


I.e., "If you can't lick 'em, bribe 'em!" All bribery is intrigue, I daresay, yet not all bribe schemes are "intriguing" in the cant journalistic sense. This sort of thing has happened far too often in American history for it to be pulse-stirring. Bribery schemes have even become a bit tiresome as regards the militant GOP's invasion and occupation policy for the former Iraq. It's even been around since before day one of the current caper, in the sense that certain statespersons who should have known better seem to have been talked into the Wolfowitzian fantasy that this aggression would be self-financin': not only would the jubilant neo-liberateds throw flowers at the armed Republican palefaces as soon as they showed up, they'd pump zillions of barrels of complimentary crude oil for them as well. It now appears that the real world does not work quite like that. ("O God, O Bernie Lewis, what went wrong?")

Even a comparative or former good guy like Prof. Dr. Juan Cole succumbed to visions of bribery inspired by all that oil that is allegedly their own to bribe the restless natives with. Just give the TwentyPercenters (whose lands are dry) a double share, and, hey presto! "security and stability." Politically absurd and probably illegal as well, to the extent there remains any legality in Peaceful Freedumbia, but even mere morality might ask questions about planmongering like that. However this is the USA, where pretty well everybody agrees that foreigners can always be bought.

Petraeus and Biddle at least abstain from buyin' natives with what they pick from the same natives' pockets. Exactly where their slush funds come from is not altogether clear: "U.S. emergency funds, reward payments and other monies"? Who is that pays the extremist GOP "reward money" for all its mischievements in the former Iraq? Or perhaps somebody pays up to prevent future mischievements undesirable to themselves? And "other monies," for Pete's sake! That's a blank check waved in the face of Congressional oversight like a red flag before a bull. Have Biddle and Petraeus been attendin' the Oliver North Academy of Creative Finance, perhaps? The ONACF MBA is not quite as prestigious as one from the Harvard Victory School, to be sure, but maybe sometimes more down-to-earth.

Still, we are assured it's all to be only a short-term expedient. Presumably Congress will swoon at the wonders achieved by the Ever-Victorious Surge of '07™ and vote the Crawfordites immunity and a ticker-tape parade retrospectively, on the model of Otto von Bismarck and the Prussian Landestag. Or so one presumes ten percent of the time with Neocomrade S. Biddle.

Not all intrigue is bribery, naturally. There's another species of it as well, one that poor M. al-Málikí seems alarmed about, "It also provokes fears within the Shiite-led government that the new Sunni groups will use their arms against it, commanders said." One would like to know which commanders said so to the Washington Post, whether from the narrower PetraeoCrockerian clique or the broader consensus at the Green Zone Officers Mess. The latter seem to be of the same opinion still as last fall, when they leaked relentlessly and shamelessly to create the impression that poor M. al-Málikí is one of the principal obstacles that requires to be surged at.[2] That has not happened, and it cannot be expected to happen in the short term remaining to the Dr. Gen. before accountability sets in.

It is unlikely that the PetraeoCrockerians are deliberately settin' out to intimidate poor M. al-Málikí. They do not conceive this nifty scheme of theirs as directed against him, but rather at the fiends of al-Qá‘ida, exactly as they claim. As usual, the best maxim is to assume that politicians, even Big Party invasionists and intriguers, mean what they say and say what they mean unless there is really compelling evidence to the contrary. All but certainly, it is only more collateral damage and stumblebumism that their nifty scheme of bribery should happen to shove poor M. al-Málikí and his alleged "central government" to the side while they surge on to PetraeoVictory without him and it. Probably the "libertarian" strain in the domestic ideology of Grant's Old Party has nothing to do with it either, although to achieve "security and reconciliation at the neighborhood level" (i.e., without any evil Fedguv ever buttin' in!) might seem to appear to devotees of Miss Rand of Petersburg and Mr. Nozick of Harvard. [3]

Can the braniac aggressors in fact bribe their way to "security and reconciliation at the neighborhood level"? Not very likely. As in any such attempt, there is the notorious difficulty of making sure that one's bribees stay bought. An objector might object that the Petraeans propose to rely on bribery for only a short term, so perhaps they can pull it off. I respond, "Look again at their proposed transition to livin' happily ever after":

"In the long term, commanders say, the goal is to incorporate the units into the Iraqi security forces."


Now if you was a potential bribee, Mr. Bones, a venal shaykh, or even perhaps a mere venal and crooked pretender to shaykhdom, what would you make of that? I suppose you might decline, but politely praise the honesty of your wannabe corrupters from the Big Management Party, who tell you up front that their bribes won't be coming in for very long and that any armed band you assemble with their bribes is slated to be taken away from your control and handed over to the (Twelver-infested!) Fedguv as soon as possible. Alternatively, you might take their bucks while the taking is good, and try to avoid the rest of it when the time comes as best you can, should God will. And that's about it, as far as I can see.

The only way a genuine PetraeoVictory could emerge from it would be for al-Qá‘ida to be smashed beyond recovery in the short term, and then there turns out to be no urgent need for "Iraqi security forces," because it will have turned out the faith-crazed fiends of M. Bin Ládin were the only thing that kept "security and stability" from breaking out in the former Iraq long since. For purely domestic Boy-'n'-Party reasons, Karl Rove reasons, the chickenhawk Big Managers pretend to believe something of the sort. Congress and Televisionland can still be incited against al-Qá‘ida, perhaps. The rest of the bushogenic quagmire is far over the heads of Wingnut City and Rio Limbaugh, not to speak of how little interest those who do not still support the aggression take in native squabbles. In the real world, however, the smashing required cannot be accomplished quickly, and if by some fluke it were accomplished, it would be only a sarcasm to call what ensues "stability and security."

So don't bet on it, Mr. Bones.



____
[1] Confronted with 10:1 odds at the Casino of Human Events, I should myself spend more time worrying about what happens after I lose than about exactly what the prize would be if I'm very lucky. Since neither the honourary colonel nor the bipartisan neocomrade says a word about the down side of the wager proposed, further research seems called for. (Needless to add, perhaps, casinos and I do not interact very often.)


[2] They did not, however, leak lawlessly, since our violence pros have never been taught that chickenhawk control of the military applies to foreign chickenhawks. But I'd give you higher odds than Biddle's that "commanders" don't know enough about GZ collaborationist politics to dabble in them to any purpose.


[3] Planet Dilbert and I are scarcely on speaking terms, so I may be mistaken here, with Miss Rand and Mr. Nozick and their dupes preferring to have competitive governments at the neighborhood level. In that case, the present state of the Arab Sunni provinces of the former Iraq is ideal from the Dilbertarian standpoint, and therefore the Dr. Gen. should just leave well enough alone. That seems to be what Neocomrade Congressman R. Paul is aimin' at, although maybe not for exactly these reasons. But God knows best.

27 July 2007

Whatever You Do, Don't Disintegrate

When the Christian Science Monitor admits that a patient is sick, very likely the only question is where to bury the part of her that did not pass away altogether. But silly ideologies apart,

Iraq is in the throes of its worst political crisis since the fall of Saddam Hussein with the new democratic system, based on national consensus among its ethnic and sectarian groups, appearing dangerously close to collapsing, say several politicians and analysts.

This has brought paralysis to governmental institutions and has left parliament unable to make headway on 18 benchmarks Washington is using to measure progress in Iraq, including legislation on oil revenue sharing and reforming security forces.

And the disconnect between Baghdad and Washington over the urgency for solutions is growing. The Iraqi parliament is set for an August vacation as the Bush administration faces pressure to show progress in time for a September report to Congress.

At the moment, Iraqi politicians are simply trying to keep the government from disintegrating.


So few words, so many dubious judgements:

(1) Neither the currently imposed neorégime nor any predecessor has been "based on national consensus." Realists will say all have been based on Republican Party bayonets. Idealists at the CSM might speak de jure (sort of) and claim to think poor M. al-Málikí &c. repose upon the Khalílzád Konstitution. The latter might seem a slight improvement on frank Party invasion-basin' and right of conquest, in that the KK at least aspires towards "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups." However to aspire towards and to be based on are not synonymous expressions.

(2) "This has brought paralysis to governmental institutions," we are instructed. Evidently this "this" must be either the political crisis or the dangerous closeness to collapse. Take your pick, it's wrong either way. The primary cause of the patient's paralysis is, once again, the Khalílzád Konstitution. The actual politics of the collaborationist natives is only loosely based on that document, to be sure, or on any other sort of Rulalaw. None of the GZ pols have quite the extremist GOP reverence for original intents, not even for their own from a couple dozen months ago. However the KK may take the lion's share of credit for the paralysis of the formal machinery described in it. That poor kid was paralyzed from birth. Paralyzed from conception, even. And of course paralyzed more or less deliberately by its own Madisons and Hamiltons, who proceeded logically enough on the theory that the great thing is to make sure that the other guys get as few of their original (or subsequent) intents as can be arranged. The KK has certainly achieved what it aimed at, but whether total gridlock was a sensible thing to aim at is another question.[1]

(3) Mr. Dagher fails to see that his "worst political crisis" is coterminous with the formal structure of the neorégime as such. Accordingly, it is no surprise that one cannot make out what the [exp. del.] it consists in, as monitored by Christian Science. His indig quotees can't do much better:

"Most of the political blocs have failed to operate within the framework of national consensus. They can't even properly formulate their positions and proposals, let alone realize the very serious dangers that surround everyone."


That gem is from "Fakhri Karim, a close adviser to Messrs. Barzani and Talabani who also publishes the independent Al Mada newspaper." Considering the politics of al-Máda, though, the august Framework of National Consensus is probably equivalent to what poor M. al-Málikí says he thinks Crawford wants. They've all got one of those framework gizmos, naturally, all the GZ pols from all the sects and ethnea of peaceful Freedumbia.

If having a Framework of National Consensus in one's hip pocket had any tendency to produce either a nation or a consensus, the collaborationists might make some headway. Needless to say, it is always only the other guys who insist on being narrow and nonconsensual. Here's one of the other guys:

"We are firmly convinced after this bitter experience that this government represented by its prime minister is incapable of joining a truly patriotic project," added Mr. Olayan, surrounded by Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and the [Tawáfuq] front's other leaders."


The "bitter experience" seems to be having ever had anything to do with the UIA's model of a Framework of National Consensus. The quasiparliamentary TwentyPercenters' idea of "a truly patriotic project" does not command majority support inside the TwentyPercenter theocommunity, of course, let alone in the former Iraq more broadly.

Tertiary education gets it more wrong than right closer to home:

Robert Springborg, director of the Middle East Institute at the University of London, says the heart of the problem was that no one is truly committed to a strong and unified government. "The actors involved have their own agendas, the central government and its resources are a tool for their own aspirations ... none are committed to a government for all Iraqis," he says.


"Its resources," yes. "The central government," no. The Green Zone Fedguv as constituted under the Khalílzád Konstitution is about on a par with that rattle Tweedledee and Tweedledum went to war over. It's perfectly useless for realizing one's own aspirations. At best it may come in handy at times for interfering with other folks' counteraspirations. Everybody save the Free Kurds is in principle as devoted as devoted can be to "a government for all Iraqis," so devoted that they mean to run the said ideal government themselves and keep all untrue patriots and nonconsensual frameworkers firmly out of it. That is what passes for political normalcy in the Greater Levant, after all.

Those natives whose politics are serious rely primarily on their armed bands to effect their aspirations toward Levantine normalcy, the KK neorégime being perfectly useless and scarcely worth taking over. Its oil and its troops are valuable resources, however. Why, even the militant Republicans have noticed that much!

If Dr. Springborg were to begin with Tweedledee and Tweedledum and the rattle instead of his own refined notions of civilised governance, he might raise more rewarding questions, such as "Who is to be the Great Crow, then?" Poor M. al-Málikí has a theory about that matter, it seems:

Sami al-Askari, a parliamentarian and close adviser to Maliki, ... accused the Sunni bloc of operating from the get-go more like opposition than a partner. Maliki and his Shiite allies have repeatedly charged that the Sunnis want to bring down the government and reverse the current political equation with the help of regional Sunni Arab powers Egypt and Saudi Arabia.


The pol will have meant by "reverse the current political equation" that the Sunnintern wants a Sunni Ascendancy back rather than anything immediately to do with the Khalílzád Konstitution, yet if the Great Crow really does fly in from that direction, M. al-‘Askarí's prophetic words will apply well enough to getting rid of the "0+0+0=0" equation that now obtains at Brave New Baghdád.

The whole shebang is most remarkable: how could even Harvard Victory School MBA's have thought to wreak their Party will on Peaceful Freedumbia with a "constitution" that might do in Switzerland but scarcely anyplace else on earth? And some of the tonier commentary is as much fun as the actual wreakin', can't the social scientizers appreciate that since the Swiss actually possess "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups," it scarcely matters what their constitution is or whether they have one at all?

==

On the Great Crow front, see this morning's latest Boy-'n'-Party autoleakage to the New York Times , titled "U.S. Officials Voice Frustrations With Saudis’ Role in Iraq" .

Bush administration officials are voicing increasing anger at what they say has been Saudi Arabia’s counterproductive role in the Iraq war. They say that beyond regarding Mr. Maliki as an Iranian agent, the Saudis have offered financial support to Sunni groups in Iraq.


Fancy the cowpokers talkin' about anybody else's "counterproductive role"!


____
[1] The Madisons and Hamiltons, along with their superintendant Khalílzád Pasha and his superintendants back at the ranch, were (as I speculate) not aiming directly at total gridlock, though they might as well have been. One might even say they blundered with "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups" somewhere vaguely in mind, though that is pushing charity rather hard. Had the blunder been fully cognized and written down, it might read something like "As any fool can plainly see, the greatest political danger to the former Iraq at present is that one sect or ethnos will grab control of the Fedguv and tyrannize over all the rest. Let's make sure that can't happen." And that is exactly what they did.

Certain persons disappointed with the Crawford-blessed Land of Peace and Freedom (disappointed as regards special interests of their own, mostly) profess to think that poor M. al-Málikí is guilty of sectarian tyranny, and so I must be wrong to consider the Khalílzád Konstitution a smashing success, in its own peculiar terms. These persons fail to understand that there is only so much even a genuine constitution can do. Possibly there is a certain amount of sectarian tyranny going on, but none of it is being done with the formal institutions of the Fedguv defined in the KK: M. al-Málikí and the Council of Quasiministers are not officially tyrannizing with the KK executive. The Council of Quasideputies are not tyrannizing through the KK legislative. The KK judiciary has not even been instantiated, so far as I am aware, so how can it be guilty of tyrannizing? It's quite as impossible to tyrannize with the Khalílzád Konstitution as it is to do anything else in particular with it. To be sure, that means that one cannot do "national consensus among ethnic and sectarian groups" with it either.

The militant GOP geniuses themselves appear to have noticed as much recently, although probably not very perspicuously. According to one of this week's Party autoleakages,

The "near-term" goal is to achieve "localized security" in Baghdad and other areas no later than June 2008. It envisions encouraging political accommodations at the local level, including with former insurgents . . . The "intermediate" goal is to stitch together such local arrangements to establish a broader sense of security on a nationwide basis no later than June 2009.


The Islamic State of Iraq, and whoever is operating "death squads" out of the secret police quasiministry (if anybody is), and a large number of other armed bands, take essentially Dr. Gen. Petraeus's view of how his own Party's armed band should operate under existin' conditions in Peaceful Freedumbia. If none of the bandits explicitly points out that this involves actin' as if the Khálílzád Konstitution does not exist, doubtless that is because they never thought of it at all in connection with their urgent priorities. The Petraean banditti must do a little lip service, of course, so in my ellipsis above belong the words "while pressing Iraq's leaders to make headway on their program of national reconciliation." (Much good that will do! I believe there is a joke about how do you make a kitten pull a stage coach? Answer "With a whip.")

26 July 2007

Profiles in Yesteryear

Some of the carefully crafted language reads like vintage Sorensen – and could be reasonably effective if properly delivered by a skillful speaker. “In this campaign,” the speech declares, “I will make no promises I cannot fulfill, pledge no spending we cannot afford, offer no posts to cronies you cannot trust, and propose no foreign commitment we should not keep. I will not shrink from opposing any party faction, any special interest group, or any major donor whose demands are contrary to the national interest.”

At this point, however, Sorensen delivers a definition of unabashed liberalism, which, if echoed by the actual Democratic nominee, could guarantee victory for the GOP: “Nor will I shrink from calling myself a liberal in the same sense that Franklin and Theodore Roosevelt, John and Robert Kennedy, and Harry Truman were liberals – liberals who proved that government is not a necessary evil, but rather the best means of creating a healthier, more educated, more prosperous America.”

Conservatives should rejoice at the prospect of fighting out an election campaign on precisely this question: is government indeed the “best means of creating” a better America—or is it an intrusive, annoying, arbitrary, largely destructive force that consumes too much of out time, energy and money.

I remain confident that the majority of our fellow citizens will warm much more readily to the Ronald Reagan formulation that “government isn’t the solution; government is the problem,” or the Jeffersonian declaration that “the government that governs best, governs least.”


Unfortunately for militant extremist Big Management Party neocomrades, and for all all their Party's nitwit victimized wombscholars and all its sad and selfish downdumbees, the next election in sight ain't likely to be about precisely THAT question. "Intrusive, annoying, arbitrary, largely destructive" worries about exactly what curious sort of neo-happiness Boy and Party have created for their invasionized neo-subjects out in Peaceful Freedumbia are only too likely to supervene. An alliance and solidarity of Planet Dilbert and Miss Rand of Petrograd and Mr. Nozick of Harvard with the resistance / insurgency / guerrilla / terrorism of Peaceful Freedumbia -- everybody in sight, palefaces and swarthies both alike shouting "Get ALL the [exp. del.] BigManagers off EVERYBODY's back!" -- would undoubtedly be very picturesque and edifying, but I fear it's not really very likely to happen.

Former Non-President Sorensen, the perpetrator of Profiles in Courage, has much to answer for, and I shan't forgive him myself this side of the Weltgericht, but meanwhile, we still live diesseits in the corrupt sewer of Sorensen and Cheney, not in the Republic of Plato nor anywhere on any Atlas according to John Galt or Ayn Rand. So then, "[T]he best means of creating a healthier, more educated, more prosperous America" remains a serious question, or three serious questions, and there appears to be only the same old answer as ever: obviously Big Management must take care of all that, and it advances or retards the analysis not a step to passionately identify, or stubbornly decline to identify, Big Management with "Big Government." We're all hooked on Bigness nowadays, addicted to Bigness, under the aegis of Uncle Sam, the very biggest of all Biggies ever, the Alone Sole Remainin' Hyperpower!, and to propose tiny local solutions about medicine or education or "prosperity" or anything else that seriously matters nowadays is only to spit against the wind and but bespatter ourselves with our own idle spittle.

Call our plight "globalism," if you happen to enjoy mechanical windup-toy verbal claptrap! The precise name you prefer to call the Bigness Thing by matters not at all to the Bigness Thing itself. I rather personify the Bigness Thing snickerin' to Itself as each new pilgrim approaches to adore and revere and circumambulate, is it to be globally adored/revered/circumambulated as "management" this time, or as "government"?

If the Bigness Thing privately draws certain negative conclusions about the Human Race from all this a/r/c stuff, It is not alone. Many human moralists have anticipated Juggernaut's conclusions.

But God knows best. KECEKE!

25 July 2007

The Windows of the Bozo Box

"Security" may be a bloody obscene joke out in the Big Management Party's half-conquered foreign provinces, but that problem of success does not mean they can't do better for themselves than for their little foreign friends. As every schoolboy knows, Castle Cheney is totally opaque at all wavelengths, not just the constitutional one. Chateau Kennebunkport and Rancho Crawford are a bit more subtle, they contain what appear from a distance to be windows but are actually cunningly crafted video displays. In science fiction, we are often told that real windows are dangerous and unnecessary, but the video displays show the tourists what they would see if there was a transparent spot in the hull, rings of Saturn or whatever. The Harvard Victory School MBA's have turned that plan inside out, one can "see" what's going on "inside" their Executive Branch, sort of, but a good deal more is going on than visible light passing through glass.

Can the perps see out? Naturally there is no way to tell for sure, but to speculate that they can not see out very clearly might explain a large part of the stumblebumism.

On the other hand, one might equally well guess that what the Party OnePercenters see where the rest of us looking in see "windows" is mirrors. That is how one-way glass works in the police movies, I believe, and to fancy the bozos always preenin' their wunnerful selves inside those mysterious boxes of theirs when they ought to be workin' (or at least bigmanagin') would explain a lot also. For instance, it would explain Little Brother's and Dr. Limbaugh's Yalie cheerleadin' from yesterday,

THE PRESIDENT: Some note that Al-Qaeda in Iraq did not exist until the US invasion and argue that it is a problem of our own making. The argument follows the flawed logic that terrorism is caused by American actions.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: Iraq's not the reason that the terrorists are at war with us.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: We were not in Iraq when the terrorists bombed the World Trade Center in 1993.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: We were not in Iraq when they attacked our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

RUSH: Right on, right on.

THE PRESIDENT: We were not in Iraq when they attacked the USS Cole in 2000, and we were not in Iraq on September the 11th, 2001. Our action to remove Saddam Hussein did not start the terrorist violence. An American withdrawal from Iraq would not end it.


Little Brother looks "through" the "window" that the Party-blessed Land of Two Rivers -- the placid stream of Peace and the gushin' torrent of Freedom[1] -- ought to be on the other side of, and what he "sees" is chiefly that terrorism is not caused by American actions. That is to say, Little Brother must be lookin' at Little Brother, not at the former Iraq, when he emits noises like those -- although admittedly he does seem to see the former acts of Bill Clinton and other top donkeys not causin' terrorism also. "Thank you very much, Mr. President." (Some of his Party base-and-vile would be happy to set him straight about that overgenerous detail.) To refer to a "mirror" in this connection is therefore rhetorically warrantable. [2][3]

However the "screens" on the outside of the Bozo Box are more worth discussing than the "mirrors" on the inside, if only because outside is where we humble find ourselves. Crawfordology is no easy science; most practitioners seem to think that mentioning Neocomrade K. Rove's name is about as far as one can go for sure in this misdirection. However there may have been a significant break-through quite recently, and it goes like this :

President Bush announced: "Many of the spectacular car bombings and killings you see are as a result of al Qaeda -- the very same folks that attacked us on September the 11th." ... [L]ately the media has been pushing back a bit on this particular Bush deception.

On July 11, Jonathan S. Landay noted for McClatchy Newspapers that the group calling itself al-Qaeda in Iraq "didn't emerge until 2004." Michael Abramowitz wrote in [t]he Washington Post that while the group's "militants are inspired by bin Laden, intelligence analysts say the Iraqi group is composed overwhelmingly of Iraqis and does not take direction from bin Laden." And the Los Angeles Times reported: "A Pentagon report late last year . . . said that Shiite Muslim militias, not Al Qaeda, were the largest threat to security in Iraq."

Not long after New York Times public editor Clark Hoyt's scolded his own paper for not confronting Bush on the issue, Times reporters Michael R. Gordon and Jim Rutenberg wrote in a front-page story that Bush's assertions "have greatly oversimplified the nature of the insurgency in Iraq and its relationship with the Qaeda leadership."

And the coverage of Tuesday's intelligence report ... was full of skepticism over the White House's attempted conflation.

So what a stroke of luck it was for the White House when, just a day later, the chief military spokesman in Iraq revealed a dramatic story that would appear to support the president's new favorite talking point: Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner chose yesterday to announce the arrest -- two weeks ago -- of a man he called a leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, who he said had told interrogators about a close operational relationship between his group and Osama bin Laden's inner circle.

Was the timing coincidental? And is Bergner credible? Until recently he was a member of the White House's national security staff, holding the title of senior director for Iraq. Since taking up his new post in May, Bergner has made a series of politically charged allegations against both al Qaeda and Iran, many of which have been basically unverifiable.


Neocomrade Gen. K. Bergner turns out to be such as only another militant extremist Republican would be likely to credit:

But there was no evidence to back up Bergner's claims. And as Mike Nizza pointed out on the New York Times Web site, Bergner showed at least some willingness to make insinuations based not on intelligence, but on his imagination. Consider the following exchange:

Bergner: "Our intelligence reveals that senior leadership in Iran is aware of this activity. . . . "

Question: "Can you define senior leadership?"

Bergner: "I think I'll leave it at that."

Question: "Would you exclude the supreme leader?"

Bergner: "I'll leave it at 'senior leadership in Iran'"

Question: "Put it this way: Do you think it's possible that he doesn't know?"

Bergner: "That would be hard to imagine."

At least one report since then appears to cast some doubt on Bergner's claim of an Iranian role in the Karbala attack. As Gregg Zoroya wrote on July 12 for USA Today: "A previously undisclosed Army investigation into an audacious January attack in Karbala that killed five U.S. soldiers concludes that Iraqi police working alongside American troops colluded with insurgents."


There is more where that came from, if you are interested in Gen. Bergner personally as well as in his structural or Bozo Box role. As to the latter, it is not simply that students can now speak of "Rove and Bergner" to personify Big Party twistification rather than Rove alone. More important is to notice that prior to the present state of their aggression, the cowpokers did not think they needed to dispatch a Party neocomrade like K. Bergner to preside as commissar over the Five O'Clock Follies at New Baghdád. They were content with whatever spin the violence pros of the Green Zone Officers Club chose to supply.

It would thus appear that Something Went Wrong. What the Bernard Lewis can it have been? Can it be that Little Brother does not altogether trust his good ol' buddy "David"? [4]



____
[1] Placid Euphrates, arrow-like Tigris, dont' you know?


[2] There is certainly a Sci-Fi display screen vision of Peaceful Freedumbia inside the box also. It is described in this morning's New York Times . The Bozo Box's architect may have thought that some of its seemin' windows should be analog mirrors, whereas others should present digital fabrications. (Who knows, perhaps a few really are windows, lookin' out? If so, however, stained or rose-tinted glass seems more likely than the vulgar sort.)

There was also a mirror aspect to Little Brother's choice of audience yesterday:

At a time when Mr. Bush is trying to beat back calls for withdrawal from Iraq, the speech at Charleston Air Force Base reflected concern at the White House over criticism that he is focusing on the wrong terrorist threat.


No discouragin' words to be expected from those deer and antelope!


[3] Some of the Big Party's "conservative" "intellectual" tank-think señoritos might look into "terrorism is not caused by American actions" a little more closely than they ever have yet. As a soothin' syrup for the immoderate self-esteemin' of Greater Texans the product can scarcely be improved upon, but as geopolitics there are certain difficulties. I mean, there are difficulties if one assumes with the señoritos that it is true. They never seem to worry whether their own dogma might not imply that globoterror simply cannot be influenced by any American or Big Management Party actions whatsoever, very extreme actions along Hiroshima-Nagasaki lines possibly excepted.

The bushogenic quagmire in the former Iraq could be plausibly maintained by some cheap anti-Party sophist to establish that the neocomrades cannot cure globoterror any more than they can cause it. That's rather too simplistic a view for Mr. Bones and me, because even when the dogma is extended in that fashion, we are still in a figurative Hall of Mirrors, more interested in our own navels than in what is happening out in the boondocks of the world. But God knows best.


[4] That would be Dr. Gen. D. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton, of course. Advanced students of Crawfordology may want to follow up this lead:

Salon blogger Glenn Greenwald chronicles Gen. David Petraeus's "track record of highly dubious claims over the last several years about Iraq" .


I think it a bit of a red herring myself, however. His Braniacness must be at least a fellow traveler with Grant's Old Party to have taken his present job (and fourth star) at all, but is he enough of a neocomrade to lie for the good old cause? "Not proved" is the only sound verdict. A good deal of Mr. Greenwald's brief for the prosecution amounts to no more than that a braniac's crystal ball need not work much better than anybody else's.

A stronger case might have been mustered up on a far lesser charge: does "David" really understand his Boy's and his Party's Peaceful Freedumbia well enough to implement his own nifty MacnamarioPetraean neocounterinsurgency satisfactorily in it? Probably not, think I, and the strongest evidence is that he puts up with the amazin' D. Kilcullen, who is manifestly clueless and ought to be shipped home to his kangaroos forthwith. However that, and the rest of the really solid evidence against "David," involves technical questions of the violence profession rather than any highly dubious claimin' in the path of Dubya.

24 July 2007

The Summer of 2009

The first thing to notice about it is that it is manifestly a deliberate official autoleakage, not a reportorial scoop. Mr. Gordon, the NYTC employee, was called in and handed a press release for his corporation to print, perhaps quite literally. Autoleakers cannot, of course, prevent their collaborators from festooning the leakage proper with whatever additional reporting or editorializing they see fit to. In this case, the New York Times Company scarcely sees fit at all. Probably Major Leaker did not himself mention that "the goals in the document appear ambitious" or refer to the Iraq Study Group by name or names, although perhaps he did both. Beyond rewording the hand-out to read like a news story instead of a press release, naturally a sine quâ non, there is nothing here that cannot have come straight from the lips (or the laser printer) of Maj. Leaker.

Secondly, it lacks the tell-tale signs of a Big Management Party autoleakage and bears several positive counterindications on its face, beginning with the New Baghdád dateline. The strongest clue that Cheney & Co. are not directly involved is the number of individual perps mentioned by name. Apart from D. Kilcullen and "a British officer," who are aliens -- or perhaps one should label them "coalitionites"? -- probably all the names belong to registered Republicans, yet they do not issue their press release on behalf of the Big Party. Despite the references to Neocomrade Proconsul R. Crocker and Neocomrade Dr. S. Biddle of the CFR, the press release seems patently intended to be taken as an "independent" assessment of the state of the aggression issued by violence professionals. Not so intended, presumably, but nearly as patent, is that it must emanate from the immediate entourage of Dr. Gen. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton. (One may even guess, not that it matters, that Maj. Leaker's identity is "Col. Peter Mansoor, the executive officer to General Petraeus.") There are bits of it that seem to be in conflict with the general consensus of the Green Zone Officers Club, notably "avoid undercutting the authority of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki." In the other direction, up the totem pole, there is nothing in it that takes cognizance of any bigger Big Picture than the bushogenic quagmire that immediately surrounds the Green Zone, which makes it unlikely that it fully reflects views held at the very top of the nonchickenhawk section of the chain of command. [1] The blessèd and mysterious MacNamarioPetraean word "counterinsurgency" only occurs twice, but the first occurence is significant and stronly indicative of where this press release is coming from:

[T]he new approach reflects the counterinsurgency precept that protection of the population is best way to isolate insurgents, encourage political accommodations and gain intelligence on numerous threats.


Neither the Cheney chickenhawks nor the top brass take exactly that view, the former because they certainly do not launch their Party aggressions and invasions and occupations to protect anybody beyond themselves, the latter because the program specified does not much resemble the unsubtle sort of war winning that they prefer and that has traditionally worked out well for Uncle Sam. [2] The press release would not have been supplied to Mr. Gordon if Boy and Party had forbidden that it should be, yet it really is "independent" of the Big Managers up to a certain point. That it only overlaps with what the chief GOP geniuses think themselves and does not coincide altogether, is itself part of the purpose of the exercise, and more or less must be now that Little Brother has committed himself to pretendin' that he defers to "his" generals and wants Senators and Congresscritters and Televisionland and the electorate to do the same. [3] Under these circumstances it would not do for this document to have Neocomrade K. Rove's fingerprints on it. It does not, and thus for once the stumblebums have managed a show of competence.

Here begins Paragraph Four, and I haven't even mentioned dates and deadlines and benchmarks, which most decent adult political commentary will shriek about first. Well, that angle is obvious enough and therefore anybody's business to shriek against. Let's pass it over, shall we?

To conclude on a literary note instead, observe that Mr. Gordon and his corporation retained the right to rearrange the contents of press releases from the David Petraeus Fan Club (and anybody else, even the great GOP itself) and have done so rather cleverly. Look what comes last, the sting in the tail:

“We are going to try a dozen different things,” said one senior officer. “Maybe one of them will flatline. One of them will do this much. One of them will do this much more. After a while, we believe there is chance you will head into success. I am not saying that we are absolutely headed for success.”


In theory, that could be satire on the micawberizin' of the Big Management Party stumblebums, but the chances that it really is are negligible. One would need almost to be Dean Swift himself to make up anything so extremely ben trovato. Doubtless Major Leaker actually said it, moving his hands as well as his lips. And you must admit that the saying is 100% Karl Rove free! Nobody with narrowly Party-political objectives in mind would have said that. Why, it even tends to raise questions about Big Management as such! One doubts that the Harvard Victory School instructs its MBA's to hope that they will, by chance, head into success. West Point perhaps does, for in a way Maj. Leaker's frankly avowed micawberism is a gloss on "All's fair in love and war."

In the context that this rhetorical weapon was deployed in it, it may rather beg the crucial question. Unless one starts by supposing the success of MacNamarioPetraeanism to be very precious indeed, the prospect of futzin' about indefinitely tryin' to obtain it by "chance" may not have much appeal. But God knows best.


____
[1] At least one hopes it doesn't. It is, nevertheless, possible that Joint Chiefs &c. have also lost sight of the forest for the sake of the one Mesopotamian upas tree.


[2] As observers have observed, counterinsurgency also tends to upset the intramural correlation of forces at DOD, leaving the sailors and the flyboys very little to do and thus imperilling their fair share of the budget. Dr. Gen. Petraeus may have become even more unpopular than ever with his peers and his uniformed betters now that he is not merely ten times brainier than they are, but, for the moment at least, in a fine position to extort almost any level of funding he wishes from Boy and Party. Extortion from Congress may be rather trickier, and doubtless Maj. Leaker was to to some extent thinking of that as he composed this morning's press release.

The narrower inside circles of Cheney chickenhawks shares the top brass's reservations as well as possessing their own. Countersurgency is, after all, a pretty wimpy business, is it not? Are they to brief their Dr. Limbaugh to bark and bellow about "isolate insurgents, encourage political accommodations and gain intelligence on numerous threats," then? The Party base-and-vile want to assassinate insurgents, they take Neocomrade J. Bolton's dim view of political or diplomatic accomodations, and they confidently rely on Sole Remainin' Hyperpower to attain success and victory without any need to solicit intelligence from mere lowly indigs. Or even from the Central Intelligence Agency, for that matter.

A MacNamarioPetraean Kiddie Krusade is no doubt slightly better than no Kiddie Krusade at all, but it is hardly ideal from Wingnut City's perspective. ("Hey, why not take out Iran?")



[3] The MacNamarioPetraeans preach that "American troops cannot impose a military solution," no surprise in that. It is a rather picturesque chiasmus, though, that Boy and Party have now been reduced to hopin' for a purely military solution to their own special domestic difficulties, in the sense that whether or not they get their Long War (not to mention retain control of the Executive Branch) is beginnin' to hinge exclusively on whether or not Dr. Gen. Petraeus can bring home enough bacon for them.

Hubal, Hubal, Bring Back Hubal!

A "manifestation of polytheism" might be rather fun, actually, especially if presided over by idolators with good taste who erect a Parthenon or two. In the modern Middle East, however, since the Ottomans snagged it, if not from well before that, the aesthetic level has been deplorable, be the theological level what it may. The Bani Shirk have not erected anything worth the dynamite it would take to get rid of it, and neither have the Bani Takfír.



Iran says Saudis can curb divisive religious statements

Tehran : Iran announced on Sunday that the Saudi Arabian government has the ability to counter those deviant Salafi and Wahabbi clerics who have called for the demolition of Shia shrines.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said such statements will cause a "schism in the Islamic world."[1] Such statements are far from the declared position of Saudi officials, and Iran is certain that Saudi officials have the power to prevent such statements from being disseminated, Hosseini told reporters at his weekly press briefing. Some Saudi Wahabbi clerics have stated that the Shia shrines in Iraq are a manifestation of polytheism and should be destroyed. Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Taskhiri, the secretary general of the World Forum for the Proximity of Islamic Schools of Thought, said such fatwas, issued by errant Wahabbi clerics, will allow the global arrogance (imperialist powers) to take advantage of the situation to sow discord among Muslims.[2] And this is not the first time that these aberrant clerics have made such statements, Taskhiri told the Mehr News Agency on Sunday. "This group consists of takfiri people who reject anything which doesn"t correspond to their views," he added. "Wahabbis think that holy sites are a manifestation of polytheism," Taskhiri said. "They deem anyone who opposes them to be polytheist. They believe Shias, Sunnis, and the Islamic world are polytheist."

Takfiris are people who believe they are the only true Muslims. Ayatollah Taskhiri went on to say that nobody pays attention to what they say.[3] "They have sold themselves to the enemies of the Islamic world." [4] Tehran Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami, who is also a member of the Assembly of Experts, said here on Sunday that Muslims are expected to protest against these "mercenaries". The Foreign Ministry should inform the Saudi Arabian ambassador to Tehran that Iran regards the Saudi government as an accomplice in this case, Khatami added.



_____
[1] Will cause?


[2] It's a little sad, but thoroughly typical of peccatum originale, that the first time one runs into a grandiosity like "the World Forum for the Proximity of Islamic Schools of Thought," it should be trying to put somebody at a distance, maybe even positively excommunicate her. (Perhaps, though, what the wahhábiyya do shouldn't be accounted "thought," nor the covens and conventicles where the deluded assemble to do their thing dignified with the name of "schools"?)


[3] Mohammed-‘Alí Cardinal Taskhírí doesn't exactly logically contradict himself, I suppose, but still, something odd is going on when an orator assures his audience that nobody does exactly what he is doing when he says nobody does it. Only Captain Nemo could pull that trick off with proper éclat.

To be sure, "Takfír? What's that? Never heard of it!" might not make effective agitprop either.


[4] His Eminence skates on thin ice at this point, if one may venture so outlandishly boreal a flower of rhetoric. Are not the salaries of [these people that nobody pays any attention to] paid by Messrs. Les Altesses Royales du Ryad?

The difficulty is not so much that Cardinal Taskhírí should consider Their Bedouin Majesties to be "enemies of the Islamic World." That's more or less par for the course, I'm afraid. But here His Eminence is quoted as good as uttering the insult flat-out in the course of an article that solicits a favour from the Great Cardboard Kingdom, asking it to please call off its theological attack dogs. It's just as well that whatever scribbler at the Tehran Times put this little confection together did not care to sign his name to it.


[5] It looks as if ’Ahmad Cardinal Khatamí was not cut out for a diplomatic career. Presumably nobody at the Islamic Republic's foreign ministry has to do thus-and-such simply because that one particular Most Rev. says it is a thing that should be done. However given the peculiar political structures of the evil Qommies, one may worry that this presumption is rebuttable.

It would be interesting to learn what His Eminence says when sticking more closely to his own appointed last. What is this "case" that he speaks of? What have these enemies of the Islamic world done that is forbidden by the Divine Law, or failed to do that the DL makes obligatory? The facts of the case appear to be that the Great Cardboard Kingdom has allowed certain of its court preachers to state "that the Shia shrines in Iraq are a manifestation of polytheism and should be destroyed." Such a human event is so very plausible that one feels scarcely tempted to dispute that it actually happened.

But what is the law applicable to the case? Exactly what are the ’adilla, "arguments," that Cardinal Khatamí deployed to derive the Divine Law ruling, ’an yastanbita l-hukma sh-shar‘iyya, that les altesses du Ryad stand in violation of?

It is no good dragging in westoxicated notions such as that even the mercenary court preachers of Sa‘údiyya are entitled to the protections of Amendment I, or self-evidently endowed with a "conscience," or with the Natural Right of Personal Judgment. That sort of thing would be meaningless to all parties involved in His Eminence's "case," with the possible exception of some Foreign Office officials at both Tehran and Riyádh, and even they would only be aware that what is left of Western Enlightenment will probably view the matter through some such alien spectacles, should we ever view it at all. Under Ja‘farí jurisprudence, though, such awareness might conceivably claim some standing at Qom, though not at Riyádh. That is to say, the principal of taqiyya, "dissimulation" or the like, might come into play, allowing His Eminence's derivation of the Divine Law ruling to be (not, of course, in any sense reversed or annulled, but only) hushed up if public or diplomatic proclamation of it would lead to grave damage or danger to the (alone true) Muslims. Cardinal Khatamí would have to recognize that as a move permitted by the rules of his own game, although he might well think it a bad move. Indeed, it probably would in fact be a bad move, insofar as the wicked West, at least, is likely to think better of those who want to leave other folks' shrines undemolished than of those who bark and bellow for demolition.

As to danger and damage potentially emanating from the Great Cardboard Kingdom itself, those who profess themselves boldly unterrorized of the militant GOP are not likely to be afraid of lesser opponents. "Nobody pays attention to what they say" sufficiently indicates the general contempt in which most evil Qommies hold the royal moderationites of Sa‘údiyya. There is no call to invoke taqiyya on that account, surely! The move would be perfectly regular, but it makes no practical sense in the present circumstances. Still, if it did make sense, exactly who inside the Islamic Republic's constitutional framework would have the last word about making it is not clear to this outsider.

One keeps thinking of things that are immaterial as regards Divine Law rulings. What is material? What is the law of His Eminence's case? Are the Cardboard Kings conceived of as masters to be held responsible for all the misdoings of their slaves? Or at any rate for those slave misdoings that "are far from the declared position of Saudi officials"? That would make sense, but how would the istinbát of it go? Suppose an ordinary private-sector master with a literal slave, where would a parallel "declared position" come in? Perhaps when the slave's misdoings constitute a breach of some definite contract entered into by his owner? No, that can't be right, because a "declared position" is clearly not a contract, the act of declaration being unilateral and not negotiated or contractual. If the wicked Qommies were to send a note to Riyádh pointing out to the Cardboard Kings a certain discrepancy between their "declared position" and their slaves' behavior, what would the Divine Law status of such a note be? "You really ought to do what you said you were going to do" sounds a very plausible maxim, yet has it anything at all to do with the Divine Law of ’Islám? The theological attack dogs would almost certainly point out to their owners in a flash that no humanly declared position can ever alter the fact "that the Shia shrines in Iraq are a manifestation of polytheism and should be destroyed."

Since the Great Cardboard Kingdom does not encumber itself with a constitution, there is no obscurity at all about who decides whether or not State action should be taken on the basis of Divine Law facts. Les altesses royales du Ryad will decide, and nobody else. This arrangement is far simpler than having a system with elaborate epicycles involving "Expediency Councils" and the like. It can also claim to be more traditional inside ’Islám than the elaborate machineries that the former Safavids have evolved for themselves since the year 1323/1906, not to mention the legal and constitutional complications borrowed straight from Europe by most other current régimes of the Greater Levant. Yet here again, what do either simplicity or tradition count for in the Divine Law derivations of the wahhábiyya?

Or of the hanbaliyya, if that traditional school be in fact adhered to by the theological attack dogs at Riyádh. It's rather typical of the GCK that exactly where its Divine Law jurisprudence comes from is a question shrouded in mist. The evil Qommies no doubt suppose that in Sa‘údiyya a mercenary ‘ulamá’ simply write fatáwá to gratify the latest whims of their sham-royal masters. The actual situation must be at least a bit different from that, however, unless we speculate that the Cardboard Kings are Machiavellian enough to dictate one thing to their theological attack dogs and quite a different "declared position" to their diplomats. According to our own received principle, such a speculation is to be rejected, and even les altesses royales du Ryad taken to say more or less what they mean, and more or less mean what they say, except when obviously lying to their subjects in dynastic self-defense. Like the GOP geniuses, whom they resemble in a number of other interesting ways, the Cardboard Kings scarcely seem intelligent enough to be cynics.

It would be easy to impute cynicism to the evil Qommies, and a dogma like that of taqiyya may seem to invite some such imputation. Nevertheless it is clear enough that the Twelvers are not in fact cynics, for it is inconceivable, to any sane adult, that all those ten thousands of mullahs could be acting together in a conspiracy. That is a thousand times less likely than that the Cardboard Kings simply hire mercenaries to make up Divine Law derivations for them ad hoc. Since the latter view is to be rejected, the former must be rejected a fortiori. BGKB.

23 July 2007

East of Suez Watch

What we have here looks more like a triumph of fashionable tertiary-educationalist "narrative" claptrap than any more substantial substance.

A new third grade textbook for Israeli Arab students acknowledges that Israel's creation was a tragedy for Palestinians, Israeli officials said yesterday.

The books issued by Israel's Education Ministry for the upcoming school year describe the events of 1948 and 1949, when Israel's creation drew fierce fighting and saw the displacement of some 700,000 Palestinians.

The new textbooks give the Jewish narrative of the war, pointing out the Jews' historical connection to the Holy Land and their need for a state because of persecution in Europe, said Dalia Fenig, an Education Ministry inspector. But they also offer the Arab version of the war for the first time explaining why its results were tragic for Palestinians and referring to the Arab defeat as "al-Naqba," Arabic for catastrophe.

"The new approach says, why should you hide anything? That won't make it disappear," Fenig said. She said the education ministry had no plans to introduce the Arab narrative into textbooks for Jewish students. Some hardline Israelis vowed to fight the decision, insisting it made Israel look as if it was apologising for its existence. Official Israeli histories of its birth, especially those for schoolchildren, have typically focused on the heroism of Israeli forces and glossed over the Palestinian flight, crediting the mass exile to voluntary escape, if mentioning it at all.


Apparently the Jesuit Education Fallacy still thrives unchecked out in the Greater Levant, the faith-crazed boondocks of the world. Whatever tendentious self-servicing nonsense you inflict upon a child early enough, it, the child, will never be able to grow up out of and learn better than.

Sure. Right. Of course!

... "The Democrats are on the right path" ... "the American loss" ...

Compliments are always nice, Mr. Bones, but in this case we should remember two things, (1) our own grave doubts about the rightness of Responsible Nonwithdrawal Boulevard, and (2) the amazing ignorance of neoliberateds (and other natives of the Greater Levant) about American politics.

Anyway, here's the donkeys' bouquet:

The United Iraqi Alliance, a Shia coalition and the largest bloc in parliament, which includes Maliki's Da'wa party, agree that US troops need to bolster Iraqi forces and help defeat al-Qaeda in Iraq prior to a pullout. "The Democrats are on the right path," said United Iraqi Alliance MP Kareem al-Enizi. "They understand the size of the American loss in Iraq and want to save the lives of their soldiers. The American soldiers can't do more than the Iraqi soldiers. With training and weapons, Iraqis will be capable of handling security."


M. al-Enizi sounds pretty plausible about the future prospects of the former Iraq, but as you can see, he's more than a bit back-handed when it comes to praising the party of General Jackson: "Naturally, being what they are, their first thought is to save the lives of their soldiers!" Well, thanks a lot, of course, sir, but . . . .

And "the size of the American loss in Iraq"?

Did I sleep through a half dozen Cannaes and Gettysburgs and Waterloos that M. al-Enizi (ten thousand klicks away!) and the rest of my party here in the holy Heimatland know all about? That seems rather unlikely. To speak of "the American loss in Iraq" does not make much sense even in terms of M. al-Enizi's narrow self-interest. He appears to want many fewer armed paleface GOP extremists (and their Party paleface hirelin's) running around his country, but he also wants lots of financial and logistical support from Uncle Sam. That's reasonable enough from his point of view, and maybe even reasonable enough absolutely, but M. al-Enizi ought to worry that if he informs our poor Sam that the former Iraq has now become "an American loss," Sam might actually listen to him and then decide to cut his losses a little, as for instance by ditching M. al-Enizi, and the United Iraqi Alliance, and all the Green Zone collaborationist pols. and even "Iraq" itself. No great loss! That is to say, no great loss!

M. al-Enizi really ought to be more respectful. Uncle Sam is a Sole Remainin' Hyperpower -- nay, Sam is THE Sole Remainin' Hyperpower! Whatever the final score in the Crawford-Tikrit thug-on-thug OnePercenter dynasty grudge match, Sam will be SRH still, and the former Iraq will only be, at best, .... well, let's stipulate politely that it will be all that M. al-Enizi and the UIA would wish it to be, a very nice place to visit, a place, if God will, that one might even think of living in without being deranged or suicidal or on the payroll of some other Power's mukhabarát, yet still not quite up there in the holy Heimatland class as a Power, after all.

With M. al-Enayat "the size of the American loss" is to be presumed either a slip of the pen or an ignorance of the politics. However there are certain districts of Farther Cloudcuckooland where the bird-brained actually do nebulously think like that. How about this specimen, Mr. Bones?

.... Republicans and Democrats both recognize deep down inside that complete military defeat will mean complete withdrawal, but they can't say that yet for domestic political reasons.


As you can probably guess, Mr. Bones, the precincts of Farther Cloudcuckooland in question are overwhelmingly populated with armchair Sunni chauvinists and those who fellow-travel with armchair Sunni chauvinism and Sunnintern agitprop from the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust. "Iraq wins, America loses!" is a very peculiar sort of bumper sticker, scarcely one SUV in a thousand bearing a bumper sticker about the former Iraq and the Crawford aggression bears that one or anything equivalent to it. Wingnut City and Rio Limbaugh are all in an imbecile wet-hen fuss about "America loses," but they would never dream that "Iraq" gains what GOP invasionism loses in this zero-sum game, they'd chalk up the supposed gains to Islamophalangitarianism or Globoterror or some other of their own pet hobgoblins.

Still, I suppose we might be less censorious about Dr. Birdbrain and his Sunninterni ideobuddies. After all, we really do recognize, do we not, Mr. Bones, that utter defeat would necessitate total withdrawal? All we really gotta do with Dr. Birdbrain is turn the crank's own crank the other way around: given that Responsible Nonwithdrawal is now patently -- not to say "blatantly" -- the wave of the future, it follows at once that there cannot have happened any "complete military defeat." Maybe we elderly slack off at times and even doze off, but we can be quite sure that we have not missed our Uncle Sam's neo-Iraqi Cannae or his neo-Iraqi Waterloo. If anything like that had happened, the militant extremist GOP would have been shoved out of its semiconquered neo-provinces already. Yet there they are bestridin' the bushogenic quagmire still, there they are, behold them! Behold them surgin' rampantly under the auspices of the Big Management Party's Leaders's fair-haired boy, Neocomrade Dr. Gen. D. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton! Behold Neocomrade Rear-Colonel Freddy Kagan of AEI expoundin' in every issue of the Weekly Standard how swell it's been goin', and then all the rest of the Bani Kagan shout "Alleluia! Amen!"!

Do you suppose Rome was like that after Cannae, Mr. Bones, or Paris after Waterloo, the least bit like Rio Limbaugh and Wingnut City are now? If so, you suppose very oddly. The jubilations of these cheapjack Boy-'n'-Party jubilators are indecorous and almost vomit-inducin', Mr. Bones, yet they'll serve as evidence that "complete military defeat" can only be regarded as an equal-but-opposite specimen of the poet's "Bilge, and party cries, and Man's incorrigible mind."

As to Real Policy and the underlying Correlation of Forces, an informal coöperation between M. al-Enazi's United Iraqi Alliance and Gen. Jackson's Democratic Party seems highly desirable to me, although I should admit that I rather mistrust my own judgment hereabouts. It's no trouble and scarcely even problematical to reciprocate "The Democrats are on the right path" with "The United Iraqi Alliance is on the right path," considering what other paths are available to be seriously recommended out there in that Kennebunkport-Crawford-blessed Land of Peace and Freedom. The path of the Free Kurds plainly leads out of the former Iraq altogether, and it's an excellent path for them, may Father Zeus and Ambassador Galbraith hasten their total and unconditional independence!

Meanwhile, back in the authentically neo-Iraqi neo-Iraq, there is the Path of the rootless cosmopolitan community, the Way of Dr. Chelabí and of Dr. ‘Alláwí . Would not that be a better Path than the U.I.A.'s, O Bones?

You must admit it has its attractions, Bones! How should it not, being essentially our own Jefferson-Jackson path exported to somewhere out east of Suez? I hesitate about the exportation angle, myself. Has not their Big Party neocomrade Herr Prof. Dr. Bernard Lewis proved that that as soon as Greater Levantines borrow anything whatsoever from Wunnerful US, they immediately wreck it or pervert it? Who can guess what Frankenstein monsters might emerge from under the overcoats of Mr. Jefferson and Gen. Jackson if our own stuff was simply translated from Boston in the 1770's to the invasionites' brave New Baghdád of 2003-2XXX?

Well, actually there is a certain amount of evidence about this question, and it suggests that in fact nothing ever emerges from under those overcoats at all. Donkey stuff, "liberalism," just does not "take" in the Greater Levant. M. Albert Hourani wrote an important book about the indigs' long exposure to it and the non-consequences thereof. Dr. Chelabí and Dr. ‘Alláwí run true to Houranian form, they don't "take' either in Peaceful Freedumbia, not even with all of Rancho Crawford's dynastic management skills and military might and taxpayer dollars and AEIdeologues and Heritagitarians and Hoovervillains to back the rootless cosmopolitans of "Iraq" up from afar. Whatever the merits of the product vended, why bother tryin' to vend, in the face of such absolute Sales Resistance as "liberalism" has consistently met with in the Greater Levant?

"If you can't lick 'em, join 'em" leads from there straight to M. al-Enizi, but I suppose it won't do to pass the former Sunni Ascendancy in "Iraq" over as if it had never existed, or as if the present political landscape in Peaceful Freedumbia is not littered with zillions of shreds and smithereens left over from the Good Old Days. To talk about a "Way of the Sunnis" in the former Iraq as of 23 July 2007 would be only cheap sarcasm. One does not, being a donkey, make fun of political and military and intellectual cripples. One averts one's gaze, one hurries on back to M. al-Enizi to say "The United Iraqi Alliance is on the right path," gracefully returning his compliment and hopefully concealing one's own misgivings a bit better than M. al-Enizi concealed his about us.

There's a very plausible coöperation here between unitedly allied neo-Iraqis under the yoke of Crawford and us palaeo-Democrats in America, but there are also very obvious dangers on both "our" Tikrit-Sunnintern flank and "our" Kennebunkport-Crawford flank. The thing is worth doing, and I'm all for doing it, myself, yet if 'twere done, 'twould have to be very, very gingerly done -- "Softly, softly catchee monkey"! UIA and "Democrat Party" may be equally obnoxious to external thugs and thugmongers, but "we" do not share exactly the same enemies, not to speak of sharing exactly the same qawá'id, "principles." One might say we speak different languages, perhaps. And yet "we" do agree that principles are language-independent. I think.

22 July 2007

Maybe There's Hope For Us All?

(But then again, maybe there is not?)

One of the great noncartoonist kibitzers of our epoch starts off admirably, displaying ten times more familiarity with Crawfordology, and even with US politics generally, than most of his pen-deployer peers:

These are points Qalamji has made before, but he thinks this is the time to re-emphasize them: What the Democrats are out to defeat is the Republicans, not the project for control of Iraq. The expression "withdrawal" is merely a cover for re-assigning troops so that the troops themselves are safer; Iraq will still be occupied. It is difficult for some to face this situation, and there is a temptation to cling to fantasies about an easy victory, an early withdrawal, or at least the idea that what Bush and the Democrats are focused on is finding a way to make an honorable withdrawal.


Hardly anything there is exactly right, except the words emboldened, yet with one exception it is all within shouting distance of recognizable reality. Oddly enough, the most Cloudcuckooland stuff happens to be the rest of the same sentence that contains the most nearly reality-based stuff, i.e., "the project for control of Iraq." The Saracen rhetor himself intended an antithesis, obviously, but not exactly between sanity and dottiness.

It is difficult for some to face a situation in which the former Iraq has been turned inside-out and upside-down, with thousands lawlessly killed and tens of thousands kidnapped under pretext of "arrest" and hundreds of thousands forced to flee from their neo-liberation by the forces of invasion, without there being any Master Plan of Control behind it all. Sweet puppies -- Mr. William James's "tender-minded" sentimentalists-cum-philosophical-monists -- are appalled by such a ghastly spectacle, as indeed every decent adult must be. But not every decent adult feels that such a spectacle so threatens her preferred Weltanschauung that what she apparently seems to see must be instantly explained away as not really there to be seen.

However it were better we humble should confine ourselves to apologizing for, say, Sen. Clinton versus Mr. Wolfowitz rather than attenpt the Aristotle-v-Parmenides litigation.

OK, then, sure! M. Qalamjí is quite right at a certain level, the next "President Clinton" is not likely to move ALL the armed forces deployed by the militant extremist GOP out of ALL the provinces of the former Iraq. This prospect is very deplorable -- and I hereby put in on the record that I deplore it! let GOOGLE be my witness!-- but all the same, the Dragon Lady To Come will be quite as innocent of any Master Plan of Control as George XLIII and his Party co-conspirators are at the moment. She'll be innocent in a slight different way, innocent like a donkey rather than like an elephant, but innocent all the same. (In both cases I mean "innocent of any masterful control planning," of course, not innocent simpliciter. There's utterly no question of the latter.)

M. Qalamjí seems not to have enjoyed the West Point sort of education. "[R]e-assigning troops so that the troops themselves are safer" is a curious military maneuvre quite apart from what label one attaches to it. What would the former MacNamara or the now Petraeus make of that, I wonder, counterinsurgencywise? Not a hard question: the braniac twosome would surely say that counterinsurgency is to be abandoned in favour of something else. And I'd venture to gloss that answer by pointing out that MacNamaran counterinsurgency really did more or less purport to be a Master Plan of Control. Extending my gloss, should there be enough margin to scribble in, I'd note that as regards the GOP aggression against Mesopotamia, "counterinsurgency" and "Master Plan of Control" are mutually interchangeable notions, and both of them interchangable with the notion of the ever-victorious Surge of '07™.

Important consequences follow at once, notably

(1) From March 2003 to (roughly) March 2007, the GOP geniuses, the neo-politicized MBA's from the Harvard Victory School, didn't have any Master Plan of Control for the former Iraq whatsoever.

(2) Now that they've finally got one, the object of Control is not the former Iraq as a whole, but only the last-ditch Sunni shootists.

M. Qalamjí is by way of being a last-ditch-Sunni-shootist fan:

The thing everyone should keep in mind at this point is that when the Americans talk about an honorable withdrawal, their idea is to convince the resistance to lay down their arms, and by joining the political process and joining in the governing authority, actually help ratify the occupation [by the Americans] who, when they first came, came to stay, and not to leave voluntarily. If we put these discussions [about negotiating and joining the political process] to one side, and take up instead the language of reality, then what we hear from the American politicians with respect to Iraq is the exact opposite of what is actually happening, because the American forces, on the one hand, while continuing to talk about withdrawal, are in fact launching ever more violent attacks against Iraqi cities, using the worst weapons of killing and destruction, including banned weapons, . . . .


(( Mr. Badger's [bracketeering] is, -- ah, well, but that's only Mr. Badger with his bracketeering, after all! ))

"Launching ever more violent attacks against Iraqi cities, using the worst weapons of killing and destruction, including banned weapons" does not sound much like what the MSM report lately. It sounds rather suspiciously like noises we heard months and years ago. The "banned weapon" that Dr. General Petraeus seems in fact to be mostly deployin' at the moment is simply neo-MacNamaran Counterinsurgency, the mere actual possession of, and the seriously attemptin' to implement, some Master Plan of Control, though it be only narrowly conceived. Maybe masterful control plannin' is quite as inhumane as poison gas or "waterboarding," maybe there ought to be an International Law against the use of it in war, but still, at the moment there technically ain't any such law.

Swing back left, O pendulum! I trust I am not be to accounted a factious accomplice of Dr. Gen. Petraeus simply for refusing to become factiously complicit with M. Qalamjí and his attendant badgers, surely! Come home, O pendulum, and help us find the Via Media!

Not all that hard, really, at least on the negative side. The braniac Petraean neo-MacNamarianity comes far too little and way too late. Ms. Conventional Wisdom's professional figures of rhetoric don't often agree with my homebrew ditto, but in this case Sappy is right: the clock will run out for the Kennebunkport-Crawford Dynasty's Party's Boy's occupation policy in the Holy Heimatland no matter how much progress Dubya's ole buddy "David" makes somewhere out there in the negligible boondocks of the world.

Yet the cause of M. Qalamjí (and all his consociated quadrupeds) is even more hopeless still, for there will never be any neo-neo-liberated "Iraq" comparable to the "Algeria" that emerged after the FLN's deal with De Gaulle, no "victorious insurgent resistance" sort of a neo-neo-Iraq such as Qalamjís (and Badgers) obviously crave.

"President Hillary," as I conjecture or scenario-ize, won't much mind that both the militant extremist GOP and the extremist militant Sunnintern have alike discredited themselves over the former Iraq. She'll withdraw all the GOP's witlessly misdeployed troops to safe havens, not "so that the troops themselves are safer" but only so that they are properly poised to strike at real, rather than imaginary, enemies, if and when such strikes should become necessary in order to _____________

And there's the Blank of Blanks!

Easy enough to fill it in with cheap cynicism or even cheaper trashy Party Spirit, whether Crawfordite or Sunninterni, but perhaps if that virgin blankness can only be left blank, we may outlive our symptoms of decline even yet?

Alio modo, "What is it you want to rule the world FOR this week, O Weekly Standardizers?"

BGKB. KECEKE.

21 July 2007

Time for a Corrupt Bargain?

(Where are you now, Henry Clay? John Quincy Adams?)

As usual, the summatorialist at Slogger City can't find much news about the former Iraq in the neoliberateds' own press, but he can go on at length with some help from the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust, today starring Al-Hayát, which said that

[T]he IAF suspended its boycott as part of a larger political deal, brokered by the US, and intended to expand the scope of Sunni participation in the political system. The London-based newspaper said that, according to “observers,” the Maliki government struck a “deal” with the parties of the opposition, “with American pressure,” in order to guarantee the support of said parties for “the passing of several laws ... chiefly the oil law and the de-Ba'thification law.”

The government, and the US behind it, is eager to promulgate these strategic legislations “in order to achieve a larger proportion of the 18 benchmarks set by the US Congress (to gauge the success of the Surge Plan,)” claimed the newspaper.

In Al-Hayat’s scenario, the Sadrists and the IAF will allow the passing of these strategic laws in exchange for certain political gains. The newspaper was not very clear, however, in describing what the quid pro quo entailed.

For one, the paper claimed, the original conflict between the Sunni coalition and the government (the parliament’s decision to unseat IAF’s Mahmud al-Mashhadani as its Speaker), will be resolved by “expanding the powers of the presidential council,” which will allow the Sunni vice-president, Tariq al-Hashimi, a larger role to play in executive decisions. Soon after these reforms come into effect, the paper continued, the IAF will choose a replacement for Mashhadani.

Second, al-Hayat said, the attributes of the (Shi'a) Prime Minister will be reduced along with his influence over the Executive, which has been a long-standing demand by the Sunni front.


It would be interesting to learn exactly how the Sunni International (exclusive of the "Iraq" Sunnintern outlet) gauges the Surge of '07™ and the benchmarkmongers as well as the benchmarkees. I fancy that over at the Supreme Presidium the commissars are feeling a little swindled by the militant GOP at this point. They never did get to be half of Bush's brain, as I thought they might when the Surge was but a pup. It looks as if "David" (Dr. Gen. Petraeus of West Point and Princeton) has expanded to fill the whole available vacancy. DP's surgent reasons were originally compatible with the surgent reasons of the Sunnintern, which would have made the conjectured temporary alliance feasible, but naturally they were never identical, for DP is not interested in any sort of faith-basin' but his own technical kind.[1]

The Sunnintern's enthusiasm for MacNamaran Counterinsurgency, considered abstractly, is great, but not infinite. Above all, enthusiasm cannot be uniform and consistent. Having subjects of their own to keep down, the Arab Palace branch is naturally attracted. Knowing what they'd be subjected to if they didn't stick to the UK and the more respectable parts of Beirut, the Street Arab branch is rather less keen on it. Concretely, however, the Surge of '07™ (as originally projected), that mighty Petraeo-MacNamario-Crawfordian shotgun, was to have one barrel aimed at the Rev. Señorito al-Sadr and heretical "militias" more generally (plus perhaps also the Safavids lurking sinister in the background), the other barrel at Ba‘thís and takfírís, who, although nominal coreligionists, were not so congenial as to be indispensible.[2]

But then only one barrel went off -- and that is the essence of this phase of the Occupation Policy Crisis. "David" advances from glorious victory to glorious victory, buying up every last shaykh on the market in al-’Anbár and elsewhere, or so the Wingnut City Daily Bodycount reports with partisan glee. Nobody at all reports that Muqtadá and the Twelver militias have been clobbered the way the Sunnintern gentry were led to expect that they would be clobbered. Why, if the AAPT knows what it is talking about in the story summatorialized, the Sadr Tendency have now become virtual good guys, as far as Rancho Crawford is concerned! The Sunni International would be only human to feel a little miffed at the way things have surged out against them. Strictly speaking, the Republican Party extremists never actually made any promises, to be sure, but still ...! [3]

Anything that is bad for poor M. al-Málikí is bound to please the Sunnintern, I daresay, so the particular corrupt bargain that Al-Hayát writes a scenario about would not be all bad by any means. Naturally they'd be pleased if there were fewer anti-Ba‘th noises coming out of the Green Zone. The oil bill is harder to gauge: is it more important to Sunninternis that their coreligionists in "Iraq" be assured a proportionate share of the loot, or that strict central control be insisted upon, even though for the moment poor M. al-Málikí is still deplorably at the centre? Most likely the latter, although I would not claim to be sure about this point.

As the summatorialist remarks, "The newspaper was not very clear, however, in describing what the quid pro quo entailed." About par for the Sunnintern, that would be! -- a clear enough idea of what they'd like, but only murk and mist as to what the other side might like, or what they'd be prepared to relinquish. In this case, though, why not guess that permitting poor M. al-Málikí to continue to be addressed as M. le président du Conseil des ministres is quite enough quid pro quo to be getting on with?


So far we have discussed only possible Corrupt Bargain A. At Slogger City they know, or anyway they scribble, about a more comprehensive Corrupt Bargain B also:

The Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper, which toes a leftist/Arab Nationalist political line, had a more “interesting” explanation for the IAF return. According to the newspaper, an American-brokered deal will give the Sunnis the presidency in the future, while the post of the Parliament Speaker will be turned over to the Kurds.

Al-Akhbar said that, according to “sources close to the centers of decision-making in Iraq,” the political institutions of the country will undergo a “radical change,” entailing the restructuring of the three presidencies (the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker) and their attributes.

The paper added that the coming reforms were designed “by the occupational authority, in conjunction with the UN mission and the ruling establishment in Iraq.” In addition to the Sunnis “recouping” the President’s post, al-Akhbar confirmed al-Hayat’s report regarding an expansion in the attributes of the President. These reforms, the paper explained, seek to satisfy Sunni demands for greater participation, “give an increased impetus for the political process, and decrease the intensity of the resistance in Iraq.”

What proves the existence of a “deal” behind the IAF return, al-Akhbar said, is the fact that the controversial Mahmud al-Mashhadani headed the last parliamentary session without any signs of protest from the political parties that had voted him out a few weeks back.


That nifty scheme is so exceedingly Lebanese-ey, so seedier-than-thou, that one hesitates to believe it is true, even though the AAPT's Beirut branch and the Sunnintern's Street Arab branch vouch for it. There is/was of course nothing in Khalílzád Pasha's "constitution" for the happy Land of Peace and Freedom about the theocommunitarian identity of particular officers of state.[4] (Three guesses which direction that brainstorm invaded from!)

But let's suspend our disbelief, should we have any, and wonder whether the nifty scheme could work. Can "the occupational authority," even "in conjunction with the UN mission and the ruling establishment in Iraq," really pull off a trick like that one?

Probably not. Almost certainly not. Corrupt Bargain B simply does not address the true underlying difficulties of the miltant GOP's semiconquered Mesopotamian provinces. Tinkerin' with "the political institutions" along those lines would rather aggravate the Khalílzádian gridlock than obviate it -- a feat I had not thought possible, yet here it is! "Restructure" the next neorégime's executive arm as a faith-quota'd Gang of Four and you're only more guaranteed than ever that the next neorégime's executive arm cannot possibly be a genuine power center. If that's the kind of thing you like, O Occupational Authorities, why not impose the ancient Polish Constitution on the wretched indigs in toto and allow any quasideputy to "explode" the whole quasigovernment anytime she pleases?

" Nie pozwalam! Zlota wolnosc!! Freedom Means Peace!!!"

But of course "the political institutions" are not fundamental in the bushogenic quagmire any more than the Khalílzád Konstitution is fundamental. The real quicksand that the House of Occupation has been erected on consists in the utter disintegration of the Arab Sunni theocommunity that followed overthrow of the age-old Sunni Ascendancy. The newspaper account of Corrupt Bargain B vaguely mumbles "seek to satisfy Sunni demands for greater participation," and the key point can be phrased that way if anybody likes: "Sunni demands" are not going to be met by Corrupt Bargain B. The TwentyPercenters don't want "greater participation," they want their natural mastery, their Sunni Ascendancy, back. "All or Nothing!, Rule or Ruin!" -- that's the ticket, and since in their present total incoherence as a theocommunity, the TwentyPercenters of the former Iraq couldn't possibly rule, Ruin awaits.

Exactly what shape Ruin will present herself in is all that is left to be discussed. Perhaps there will be flat-out partition, locking them up in a cage with nobody to be natural masters of but themselves. Perhaps there will be some hillbillies-and-heretics travesty of an "Iraq" that the TwentyPercenters are trapped inside forever. Perhaps (but this scenario seems less likely) there will be a Polish-style partition, partition plus annexation, with the TwentyPercenters eventually finding themselves subjects of His Hashemite Majesty or of les altesses royales du Ryad or some other Sunninterni neighbor.

All the King's horses and all the King's men -- that is to say, even "the occupational authority, in conjunction with the UN mission and the ruling establishment in Iraq" -- could not avert Ruin from the TwentyPercenters except by a sudden mass conversion to theological correctness that would require supernatural intervention. Few aggressors in history have ever been less competent at managing their conquests than the aforesaid Occupational Authority, yet the bushogenic quagmire would perplex the aggression competence of Jenghiz Khan himself, because what is called for virtually amounts to being competent to make two plus two be some number other than four.

Can't be done. Not gonna happen. Force can't do it, and Fraud can't do it either.


____
[1] "MacNamara Saves!" is a curious faith to base any thing on, even a technical thing, seeing that the guru selected failed to save himself. Still, who knows for sure? perhaps if Sen. Humphrey had been elected in 1968, and the whizkids had had more time, and . . . .


[2] Judging from the experiences of unzionated Palestine, I'd venture (or perhaps "gauge") that it is pretty well impossible for one to be so congenial to the Sunnintern that they won't let one down, probably sooner rather than later. That is why the Sunnintern outlet in the former Iraq must be treated separately: it is, so to speak, the leg caught in the trap that the jackal may feel obliged to chew off to get the rest of herself free. On Thursday we had certain theologically correct neo-Iraqi Arabs complaining to the Guardian about being nibbled at:

"We are the only resistance movement in modern history that has received no help or support from any other country," Omary declares. "The reason is that we are fighting America."


Later on in the same press release,

The plan is to hold a congress of the seven groups to announce the front's formation and then move towards the establishment of some form of public presence outside Iraq, though it is hard to see any state being prepared to risk the wrath of the US by hosting such an outfit. "It would need UN protection," Zubeidy suggests.


The founding fathers of POIR, the Political Office for the Iraqi Resistance, seem to me a bit naïve in some respects, including the United Nations respect, but at least they are not such fools as to expect anything from the Arab League, which stands to the real Sunnintern about as the UN does to "the international community."


[3] The Boy-'n'-Party perps' side of this sad tale of semibetrayal is unlikely to be of much interest to the Sunnintern and the AAPT, and the chances that such omphaloscopic folks will be edified by finding themselves the jilted instead of the jilters for once are negligible.

Students of real policy may want to notice that the Sunnintern never had anything solid to offer the aggressors and occupationists of Crawford. I had conjectured that the vacuum between the ears of George XLIII would suck them in as well as Dr. Gen. David of WP&P and Rear-Col. Freddy of AEI. There was never any question of the Sunninternis thrusting themselves in "proäctively." Perhaps they lied to the militant GOP that they could turn off the insurgency / resistance / guerilla / terrorism in the former Iraq anytime they chose. Perhaps they did not bother to lie, whether because the falsehood was so patent that even a GOP genius might detect it, or, more likely, because such a lie invited a response to the Arab Palace branch of the Sunnintern along the lines of "So why haven't you stopped it already? We thought you guys were supposed to be our allies, for Christ's sake! Don't you remember how many dollars we've thrown at you?" And so forth, and so on.

Be that as it may, the Sunni International never had anything positive to offer the Busheviki beyond a definite idea of what they'd like to see happen in the Greater Levant at a time when the occupation policy of Khalílzád Pasha had been judged a failure down at the ranch. That was also a time when the abominable Hambakers were insolently threatening to shove their product into the post-Zalmáyan void, a product instantly detestable to unilateral cowpoker vigilantes. Unlike Sunninterni aliens, the ISG/CFR "bipartisan foreign-policy élite" possess a certain amount of traction in Beltway City DC, if not at Crawford TX, so they can, on occasion, push themselves in as well as get sucked in. Indeed, they appear to be doing some pushing at the moment. The idea of Congress solemnly announcing that the occupation therapy recommendations of the Hambakerites are the law of the land is about as absurd as political absurdity ever gets in the Holy Homeland, even in the silly season. All the same, that such a joke could ever be cracked at all may indicate which way the wind is blowing.

(How do the Sunninternis and the AAPT gauge the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, I wonder? Perhaps we shall have an opportunity to find out. Meanwhile it seems safe to conjecture that they must like it less than their own stuff, for after all, of whom is that not the case? As regards the points conventional wisdom mentions most frequently, talking to Syria is perhaps mildly welcomed, talking to the evil Qommies is fort mauvais, and the notion of having an International Congress impose upon the inhabitants of the former Iraq what the militant GOP has signally failed to impose is perhaps mildly unwelcome. Unless perchance the Sunnintern deludes itself that it would have a major rôle in determing what is to be imposed by "the international community." But God knows best.)


[4] The word "constitution" does occur in today's Slogger City summatorial, as it happens, it even occurs twice, but only in a completely different connection, about a referendum on Kirkuk. The Sunnintern and the AAPT evidently consider constitutionalism unimportant in the former Iraq, and they are well warranted in so doing, I fear. Corrupt Bargain B would certainly, and Corrupt Bargain A very probably, call for an amendment or a whole series of amendments in any genuinely constitutional State.

Invasion-language commentators, who mostly take genuine constitutionalism for granted, usually fashion a benchmark for themselves and their neo-Iraqi subjects out of formally revising the Khalílzád Konstitution so as to provide scads and scads of affirmative action for all those sore oppressed Arabophone Sunnis. Nevertheless, the whole ethos and ambience of that assumption is radically alien to the Greater Levant, where everybody (except the Jewish Statists) has a constitution, but nobody pays any serious attention to it.

It would be just as well not to bother to engage in pious make-believe about this.

19 July 2007

Asking for Trouble

"Arab media and research centers based in several Arab and regional countries are conspiring against Iraq, its people and the whole political process . . . . They consider killing women and children, bombing markets, targeting historical buildings, destroying power lines, and the electricity network. . .as Jihad . . . . In spite of the challenges and the critical period Iraq is going through . . . . We stopped a lot of deterioration . . . and started chasing terrorists until they fled to neighboring and Arab countries, and they carried evilness with them, which we hope will not be transferred there. . .although these countries did not stand with us in facing terrorism. . . . [Clergymen and tribal heads] are key figures in mobilizing the public opinion. . . [T]he government does not take the responsibility alone, but needs the support of the people . . . because its power springs from the people . . . [N]ot to use force in solving problems, even against outlaws . . . we want to solve them through negotiations . . . and we need the efforts of the tribes to educate their men that Iraq today is calling upon all of its sons to return and participate in its rebuilding . . . We are not sectarian . . . and we are not with terrorism, but we work on unifying the Iraqi people, imposing the law, and quelling sectarian violence . . . [and to stand against] administrative and financial corruption, and against the conduct of some of the government officials who are blackmailing citizens . . . and deliberately offending the government.


How will the Sunnintern and the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust respond to that nastygram from poor M. al-Málikí? Does this roaring mouse -- who recently announced the militant GOP could go away any time it likes as far as he is concerned -- understand the correlation of forces accurately? Or is it only the silly season at brave New Baghdád?

Please stay tuned.

"Experts in Shiite politics"

Experts in Shiite politics believe that efforts to isolate Mr. Sadr are bound to fail.

“Sadr holds the political center in Iraq,” said Joost Hiltermann, the director of the International Crisis Group’s office in Amman, Jordan. “They are nationalist, they want to hold the country together and they are the only political organization that has popular support among the Shias. If you try to exclude him from any alliance, well, it’s a nutty idea, it’s unwise.”


Hmm. Does one have to be an international crisis groupie to take an interest in Twelver Politics, then?

Perhaps, in the wake of Rúholláh Cardinal Khomeiní, one really more or less does.

J. Hiltermann turns up prominently in the media as yet another paleface planmonger, but his self-presented credentials do not suggest any special expertise of the sort attributed to him by the NYTC employee:

Areas of expertise:

* Iraq: political transition, constitutional process, the situation of the Kurds
* Jordan
* Israel-Palestine
* Middle East region: security threats, authoritarianism and democratisation, political Islam


The groupies' more general blurb runs as follows,

Joost Hiltermann manages a team of analysts based in Amman and Beirut conducting research in the countries of the Middle East and writing policy-focused reports on the factors that increase the risk of and drive armed conflict. The crisis in Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are Crisis Group’s two priorities in the region, but research is conducted as well in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.


Is the politics of the Rev. Señorito al-Sadr a factor that increases the risk of, and drives, armed conflict, then? Various opinions might be entertained, policy-focused or focused elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Ms. Rubin, who appears to have relapsed into taking her "Iraq" prefabricated from the Proconsular Palace of the Party and the Green Zone Officers Club, is rather at odds with her own expert (?) quotee:

HE says, "they are the only political organization that has popular support among the Shias." SHE says,

The mainstream parties talk about Mr. Sadr carefully. Some never mention his followers or the Mahdi militia by name, but speak elliptically of “armed groups.” Others acknowledge his position but are reserved on the challenge he poses.


But perhaps there is no difficulty. What could be more "mainstream" nowadays than to dispense with "popular support"? If that plan works for the militant GOP extremists here in their Homeland, why shouldn't it work for them at New Baghdád as well?

18 July 2007

Suddenly Everybody Is Winning!

Who's to impose what on those haplessly sovereign and inky-fingered neo-Iraqis? It's rather a complicated situation, as I believe has been pointed out elsewhere, but in the last few days a number of impositionists have started talking as if they think they've been making pogress for their own panaceas.

The front runner in the "Right at the End of the Tunnel Sweepstakes" is Ambassador Peter Galbraith. Strict critics may think he's a cheater, though, because he wants to impose very little, and he mostly wants to impose it upon Crawfordites instead of their semiconquered native subjects. Success, from the Galbrathian standpoint , is when he gets the man Lugar of Indiana to say things like

Few Iraqis have demonstrated that they want to be Iraqis ... In this context, the possibility that the United States can set meaningful benchmarks that would provide an indication of impending success or failure is remote. Perhaps some benchmarks or agreements will be initially achieved, but most can be undermined or reversed by a contrary edict of the Iraqi government, a decision by a faction to ignore agreements, or the next terrorist attack or wave of sectarian killings. American manpower cannot keep the lid on indefinitely. The anticipation that our training operations could produce an effective Iraqi army loyal to a cohesive central government is still just a hopeful plan for the future.


After applauding these sentiments of the repentant aggression fan, Galbraith goes on reword them his own way:

We need to recognize, as Lugar implicitly does, that Iraq no longer exists as a unified country. In the parts where we can accomplish nothing, we should withdraw. But there are still three missions that may be achievable -- disrupting al-Qaida, preserving Kurdistan's democracy and limiting Iran's increasing domination. These can all be served by a modest U.S. presence in Kurdistan. We need an Iraq policy with sufficient nuance to protect American interests. Unfortunately, we probably won't get it.


None of this morning's specimens aspire to impose anything that much appeals to me, so if Ambassador Galbraith thinks he is failing rather than triumphing, perhaps that's OK too.

His "sufficient nuance" is a curious business. I should have thought the main trouble with almost all Homeland impositionists (foreigners and indigs are different) is that they refuse ever to be crude enough about "to protect American interests." It's like pulling teeth to get any Yank impositionist to say exactly what she conceives those interests to be. The result of this shyness is unfortunate in the present state of the quagmire, where everybody outside the fever swamps of Rio Limbaugh agrees that occupation policy for the former Iraq must be made at least somewhat less ambitious and aggressive. Having no defined war aims means that there are no minimum war aims, and no way to talk about defining a set of the latter that might be effectively implemented.

Ambassador Galbraith of course wants to sneak in the absolute independence of the Free Kurds as a war aim and a (nuanced, indeed!) national interest of his Uncle Sam. He is so isolated in taking this position that not much harm can come of him except by way of confusion over "limiting Iran's increasing domination," language which appeals to what's left of the gung-ho Kiddie Krusaders, who are certainly not thinkin' of Free Kurdistan when they bark and bellow. [1] However the Free Kurds are free enough to be getting on with already, and as for the Big Party's other spear-won provinces in the neighborhood,

[T]here will be no Saigon moment in Iraq. Iraq's Shiite-led government is in no danger of losing the civil war to al-Qaida, or a more inclusive Sunni front. Iraq's Shiites are three times as numerous as Iraq's Sunni Arabs; they dominate Iraq's military and police and have a powerful ally in neighboring Iran. The Arab states that might support the Sunnis are small, far away (vast deserts separate the inhabited parts of Jordan and Saudi Arabia from the main Iraqi population centers), and can only provide money, something the insurgency has in great amounts already. Iraq after an American defeat will look very much like Iraq today -- a land divided along ethnic lines into Arab and Kurdish states with a civil war being fought within its Arab part.


Not absolutely certain, that, but it is the most sensible way to bet all the same. The only trouble with Peter Galbraith saying so too is that he is so relentlessly Kurdocentric that one has trouble believing he much cares what happens to any of the rest of Crawford's neoliberateds. Would he object, if contrary to likely expectation, the Sunni Ascendancy racket was somehow reëstablished? It does not seem too likely. [2]

==

Exhibit B, "Professor Righteous Virtue," let us call it, could not agree less with Ambassador Galbraith and the man Lugar. RV's own kind of interpretation is thus described:

This kind of interpretation focuses on widespread ideological resistance to federalism among Iraqis, as a far more profound force than calculations about oil and money.


That major triumph of invisibilia over mere visibilia is not quite all the way around the bend. Dr. Virtue does not actually claim that his "widespread ideological resistance to federalism" trumps the religionism of our neo-Iraqi subjects as well as their devotion to Lord Mammon. Unfortunately, he pretty clearly supposes that it does. Gazing downwards from so sublime a superidealistic and metafactual plane, naturally he takes a dim view of the Supreme Council with their fiendish plans for disunity. He thinks he's winning, impositionwise, mainly because he thinks that SIIC/SCIRI is losing. Yesterday's bulletin from Outer Virtuestan was titled The Supreme Council Marks Fourth Anniversary of Baqir al-Hakim’s Assassination: No Mention of Federalism . No news is good news, needless to remark. Except that maybe it isn't:

There are two possible explanations as to why the Supreme Council apparently has toned down its federalism rhetoric in 2007. One recurrent argument is that they do so for purely utilitarian reasons: they recognise that many Arab states are highly critical of the concept of a single Shiite region (and therefore the Supreme Council do not wish to isolate themselves), or they may be trying to pose as “moderates” for a US audience. This is way of reasoning which is broadly similar to “rational” explanations offered for the federal attitudes of other players in Iraqi politics as well: the Sadrists are “against” a Shiite federal entity because their core electorate supposedly is in Baghdad and therefore outside the projected region; similarly the Sunnis are “against” any federalism because “their” federal region would have no oil.


That's all only Explanation I, notice: either the fiends are pandering to (Ia), the Sunnintern, or (Ib) they are pandering to the Crawfordites. No matter which, they remain fiends and Dr. Virtue has no use for them at all, no more than he has for "rationality" or "moderation." Explanation II is much cheerier, however:

An alternative explanation is that the Supreme Council is beginning to understand the limits to the popular appeal of the idea of a single Shiite entity. This kind of interpretation focuses on widespread ideological resistance to federalism among Iraqis, as a far more profound force than calculations about oil and money. Interestingly, for the first time, there is now greater harmony between the message of the Supreme Council and the tone of the leading ulama of Najaf, with focus on “unity” and even condemnation of armed groups outside the governmental system. Still, the link to the grand ayatollahs remains tentative, Hakim on this occasion “renewing his praise for the religious leadership and, in their vanguard, Imam Sistani”. If the Supreme Council were to aspire to a role as a true force of reconciliation in Iraq, it would have to go even further: it would need to openly declare a break with its long-time sponsor, the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, and it would have to translate its new-found, apparently more flexible position on federalism into formal concessions in the ongoing constitutional revision process. That could bring Sunnis and many non-sectarian Shiites fully back into the political process in Iraq, and only then would the party deserve the label “moderate” which is so often designated to it by US commentators.


Like Ambassador Galbraith, Dr. Virtue insists on dragging in the evil Qommies in a manner that has itself a certain air of pandering about it, appealing to other people's silly notions that one does not even begin to share. He doesn't give a discernible hoot about the Free Kurds, his ferocious ideology of antifederalism has nothing to do with them. In principle RV and PG could pander together to the real core anti-Safavids, whose own fear and loathing of Iran has no more to do with its alleged support of the Supreme Council than with its Kurdish minority problems. However this theoretically viable alliance is unlikely to be consummated, for Galbraith is, loosely speaking, a partitionite, and therefore a monster himself in the eyes of Virtue.

Unlike the isolated ambassador, Dr. Righteous Virtue agrees to a large extent with Ms. Conventional Wisdom (and with Rancho Crawford and with Ann Arbor and with the ISG/CFR gentry) about the basic outlines of a revised occupation policy, only he is rather more specific about details, as befits a tertiary educationalist: "formal concessions in the ongoing constitutional revision" are now to "bring Sunnis and many non-sectarian Shiites fully back into the political process in Iraq" and then everything will be OK. This ploy, too, is perhaps just a tad disingenuous on RV's part, since neither the Crawfordites, who can actually do the imposin', nor the Arab Sunni TwentyPercenters, for whom the imposition of Affirmative Action™ is solicited, are on the exact Virtue wavelength. The former will settle for anythin' at all they can call "success and victory" without actually bein' laughed at. The latter will settle for nothing short of restoration of the Sunni Ascendancy.

If one insists on a very strict match, Dr. Virtue is even more isolated than Ambassador Galbraith, who has all those Free Kurds solidly behind him. RV is the leader of a sort of party of zero, since as a non-Iraqi he can't really be a member of his own factionette. If by some fluke, however, Conventional Wisdom et al. turns out to be right and the happy Land of Peace and Freedom can really be stabilized on a five-votes-per-Sunni basis, obviously somebody will have had to twist the arm of the Supreme Council mercilessly, and then Dr. Virtue can point us all back to yesterday's article and claim to have told us so. (If you decide to bet on that, ask your bookmaker for very long odds.)

==

The third party that seems suddenly to think it's winning is a far more serious contender, namely the Sunnintern, or at least the Times of Bazzázístán. Over at "Iraq Today," successor to "Today in Iraq," there is a curious invasion-language gloating about how poor M. al-Málikí is doomed because the extremist GOP palefaces are already on their way out the door

Iraqi politicians naively thought that marching on the same path of lies would hold the U.S. administration a hostage to their shortsightedness. Instead of using their own capabilities to run the country, they thought no matter what happens the world’s most powerful country would remain on their side and believe their lies. Iraqi politicians believed they could extort the U.S. The extortion was mutual, they thought, because the U.S. would never give up Iraq. Little did they know that the best strategies are those which adapt to the situation and that time would come when Iraq would turn into such a liability and burden that the U.S. itself would like to get rid of.


And just for fun, let's toss in Kristol Minor, equally without comment:

Now the Democrats in Congress, the mainstream media, and the foreign policy establishment have mounted their own surges against the surge. So far, Bush is beating them back. If Bush can hang tough, and General Petraeus can keep on surging, the Defeatists will fail. And the United States will have a good chance to succeed in Iraq.

...

But Bush has the good fortune of having finally found his Ulysses S. Grant, or his Creighton Abrams, in Gen. David H. Petraeus. If the president stands with Petraeus and progress continues on the ground, Bush will be able to prevent a sellout in Washington. And then he could leave office with the nation on course to a successful (though painful and difficult) outcome in Iraq. With that, the rest of the Middle East, where so much hangs in the balance, could start to tip in the direction of our friends and away from the jihadists, the mullahs and the dictators. (...) What it comes down to is this: If Petraeus succeeds in Iraq, and a Republican wins in 2008, Bush will be viewed as a successful president. I like the odds.



_____
[1] In a very mild way, perhaps vindicating the liberty of the Free Kurds might make Uncle Sam look a little less bad to Princess Posterity and her historians, even despite militant GOP extremism. One would have had to swallow a massive dose of the "soft power" snake oil, however, to attach much importance to that. Hopefully Mr. G. does not seriously mean to suggest a geopolitical joke about Free Kurdistan being an important bastion in the world-historic struggle against the evil Qommies. But probably he only inflicts that particular "nuance" on us in order to try to embed his own pet earmark into the Salvation of Mesopotamia Bill of 200X.


[2] If having assured the independence of Free Kurdistan and its safety from ever being mucked about with from Baghdad ever again would look good in the textbooks of 2157, why should not having smashed the Sunni Ascendancy insisted upon by Turks and Brits and Mecca monarchists and barracks-based republicans all alike -- and to that extent installing a bare minimum of democracy -- look rather good as well? To be sure, it is not certain that Ambassador Galbraith worries about the judgments of Princess Posterity at all, and, indeed, perhaps it is foolish for anybody to worry.

I'd guess, though, that PG is still under the spell of St. Woodrow Wilson to the extent that the formula of "national self-determination" has implications -- democratic implications -- about what happens inside the borders as well as where the borders are to be drawn. But God knows best.

17 July 2007

And Then She Had This

She (H. Cobban) knew in advance that this was comin' from him (G. W. Bush):

And then we have this... I knew it had to come into the speech somewhere!

"The conflict in Gaza and the West Bank today is a struggle between extremists and moderates. And these are not the only places where the forces of radicalism and violence threaten freedom and peace. The struggle between extremists and moderates is also playing out in Lebanon -- where Hezbollah and Syria and Iran are trying to destabilize the popularly elected government. The struggle is playing out in Afghanistan -- where the Taliban and al Qaeda are trying to roll back democratic gains. And the struggle is playing out in Iraq -- where al Qaeda, insurgents, and militia are trying to defy the will of nearly 12 million Iraqis who voted for a free future. Ceding any of these struggles to extremists would have deadly consequences for the region and the world. So in Gaza and the West Bank and beyond, the international community must stand with the brave men and women who are working for peace."


However, once put in firm possession of it, the analyst offers no further comment. I'm afraid it looks as if she doesn't take this particular slice of Boy-'n'-Party baloney very seriously in conection with the just pacification of Planet Earth. "Extremism" is, chez Dubya , only a verbal tic or psychological symptom, a sort of King Charles's head that is bound to pop up sooner or later in any reasonably long stretch of George XLIII bloviation about international aggressions and occupations and so forth and so on. "Kids say the darndest things. Why, there's little Georgie playin' with his tin moderates and extremists again!" It would go over the line to add "Ain't he cute?, because clearly Dr. Cobban and the orthodox Cobbanites don't find it ingratiating. We need not dispute about their taste in kiddyisms, but it is of some political importance that they are not the least bit afraid of militant Republicans who come bearin' "moderation." The Cobbanites do not rise in wrath and attempt to snatch the tin figures out of his hands as being so many matches that could lead to serious problems in hands like those. They don't even seem to want to protest that The Boy is playin' with toys that more properly belong to themselves.

Over at the other end of the spectrum, however, where perpetual conflagration is devoutly and, as it were, immoderately wished for, they take their Little Brother more seriously. The dossiermongers and jihád careerists need not annotate yesterday's oration specifically, for they have already complained of their Party leader's strange blindness to exactly what it is that he has in his hands. In a sense they, too, consider him typically juvenile, but not because he likes to play silly verbal games. Far from it, their trouble with the laddie is that he cannot connect up obvious dots the way a grown-up should. Given dots like Gaza and the Lebanese God Party and the Taliban and "al Qaeda, insurgents, and militia," how can he possibly fail to grasp what he's up against? Didn't he attend Yale? Yet obviously he can and does. After only a week or two of screechin' the alarm against "Islamic fascism" last fall, he abruptly gave it up. [1]

Now according to our established guidelines, Mr. Bones, we are to assume that the Crawfordites actually believe the baloney they talk. Very few people in politics are clever enough to be cynical, and the current crop of GOP geniuses are most assuredly not among the few. If Little Brother talks up his Kiddie Krusade as bein' about moderates-versus-extremists, not Western Civ. against Eastern Barb. or the like, that must be what he really thinks he is doin'. [2]

Expressions like "false consciousness" or "ideology" are not automatically excluded, but that school of political psychoanalysis should never be one's first resort. Such categories are not to be recurred to until after one has decided that the patient cannot possibly mean what she says and say what she means. Highly intelligent people (in the strict IQ sense) can go badly astray here if they have not enough imagination to fancy others believing what they themselves know is absurd and contemptible. It seems a very easy exercise to imagine that Boy and Party really do believe themselves moderates and all their enemies extremists, although one's final judgment on that belief be not far from "absurd and contemptible." The Crawfordites and their base-and-vile undoubtedly ought to know better than that, yet it is as plain as day that in fact they mostly don't. [3]


Pater dimitte illis non enim sciunt quid faciunt. [Ev. Luc. XXIII:34]

___
[1] Oddly enough, those theorists of the Kiddie Krusade that I read frequently have never mentioned that interlude afterwards, to wonder, like their Neorabbi Bernie Lewis, about "What Went Wrong?" that it was aborted. As a matter of mere fact, it appears that Dr. Rice and Neocomrade K. Hughes asked Himself Above to please knock off the Anti-Islamophalangiterianism shtik because it was tendin' to make it harder for them to handle the lesser breeds without. Since he did indeed knock it off, one speculates from afar that K. Rove advised that it did not pay enough dividends in domestic politics to merit bein' persisted in. Considering how little the invasionist crew care for alien opinion, the perceived rewards at home must have been very scanty indeed. Or so I guess.

"Mere fact" does not go very far in Crawfordology, however. Had Deep Ideology persuaded the cowpokers that Islamophalangitarianism is the true ultimate enemy of all decent Dynasty and Party values, the fact that Televisionland and the electorate are not much interested in buyin' that product would not have deterred them from purveyin' it, no more than minor factual complications of diplomacy would have. One can only infer that they sincerely don't believe it. (Dr. Pipesovitch and Bob Cardinal Spencer take that view of the case also, although they are aghast at such a failure of insight whereas I but note it with interest.)


[2] The orthodox Cobbanites do not, I think, agree with this estimate, although the matter is not altogether clear. Dr. C. professed to detect "racism" in yesterday's presidential performance:

Bush goes on, embedding some fairly racist assumptions about the nature of Palestinians into his discourse:

To make this prospect a reality, the Palestinian people must decide that they want a future of decency and hope -- not a future of terror and death. They must match their words denouncing terror with action to combat terror. The Palestinian government must arrest terrorists, dismantle their infrastructure, and confiscate illegal weapons -- as the road map requires. They must work to stop attacks on Israel, and to free the Israeli soldier held hostage by extremists. And they must enforce the law without corruption, so they can earn the trust of their people, and of the world. Taking these steps will enable the Palestinians to have a state of their own. And there's only way to end the conflict, and nothing less is acceptable.

Israel has a clear path. Prime Minister Olmert must continue to release Palestinian tax revenues to the government of Prime Minster Fayyad. Prime Minister Olmert has also made clear that Israel's future lies in developing areas like the Negev and Galilee -- not in continuing occupation of the West Bank. This is a reality that Prime Minister Sharon recognized, as well. So unauthorized outposts should be removed and settlement expansion ended. At the same time, Israelis should find other practical ways to reduce their footprint without reducing their security -- so they can help President Abbas improve economic and humanitarian conditions. They should be confident that the United States will never abandon its commitment to the security of Israel as a Jewish state and homeland for the Jewish people.


If there is any envenomed sting of "racism" there at all, it can only be at the very end, with the Tel Aviv statelet to be not just plain recognized like everybody else, but recognized-as-Jewish-Homeland. Insofar as that formula implies anything more than, or different from, acknowledgement of the Czech Republic as "Bohemian Homeland" by the conventional exchange of ambassadors et cetera, the formula might be racist.

Or then again, it might not. There is no need to resort to political poison gas like the R-word merely because Mr. Bush blatantly expects the occupied to make 95% of the concessions in Palestine, their occupiers only 5%. Especially at the moment, that asymmetry could easily be only a natural solidarity of right-wing occupationist régimes that has nothing to do with anybody's racial affiliations.

The Party perps themselves are of course "color blind." Everybody knows that. Haven't they insisted on that point often enough and loudly enough in other contexts?

What they are not is "lobby blind," so to call it, and if they were, that would be a deficiency in them also. M. Pascal and I don't award anybody points for thinking well on the basis of not seeing what is obviously there. Once in a while it is meritorious for a statesman to judiciously pretend not to see, but the Palestine Puzzle is not an exception in this respect. The lobby blindness of the militant Republicans is matched, though scarcely counterbalanced, by a lobby obsession on the part of most Arabs and Gentile Palestinians, as if my poor Uncle Sam had never been anything but a shameless pro-Zionist liar about allegedly wanting a fair settlement.

Fundamentally irrelevant developments since September 2001 have reinforced this misapprehension. The lobby-obsessed no doubt collect awful examples of Anti-Islamophalangitarianism in much the same way that MEMRI carefully culls its stinkfruits from the indigenous press of the Levant, failing to notice that the terrorized or careerist Pipesovitches and Spencers do not control Rancho Crawford but rather complain of it. The lobby-obsessed already "know" what Uncle Sam is "really" up to, they know it so well that all evidence to the contrary might as well be invisible. If Dr. Cobban had been briefed for the opposite side of the controversy, she might, with equal looseness of epithet, call that "fairly racist."

A more accurate and neutral description of it might be Big-Party Spirit, a hypertrophied narcissism that accounts blindness a badge of loyalty, as if devotion to Wunnerful US somehow consists mainly in deliberately making oneself deaf to almost everything THEY say, attending only to this week's Awfulest Examples Ever. Some of the offenders on both sides no doubt conceive the wunnerful usness of their own preferred US in ways that can legitimately be considered race-based, maybe even racism-base. Most, however, do not. Race-basin' undoubtedly can lead to the misbehavior in question, but so can quite a number of other factors. Further research is required.


[3] Anyway, what do we want? Would we approve of militant GOP extremism any better if it frankly reverted to Barry Goldwater and annouced that certain Dynasty or Party values are so precious that even immoderation in pursuit of them should not be accounted vicious?

As things stand, one may at least hope to be able to practice a little political ju-jitsu on them from time to time, persuading these avowed Knights of Moderation to abandon at least a few of their wilder schemes of thuggery and self-preference.

15 July 2007

When Bozo Meets Braniac ...

... wouldn't you expect it to be Master Bozo rather than Dr. General Braniac who gets scapegoated, O some-sayers?

Bush Leans On Petraeus as War Dissent Deepens
General Set Up as Scapegoat, Some Say

By Thomas E. Ricks

Almost every time President Bush has defended his new strategy in Iraq this year, he has invoked the name of the top commander, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus.

Speaking in Cleveland on Tuesday, Bush called Petraeus his "main man" -- a "smart, capable man who gives me his candid advice." And on Thursday, as the president sought to stave off a revolt among congressional Republicans, he said he wanted "to wait to see what David has to say. I trust David Petraeus, his judgment."


Whether on purpose or not, Mr. Ricks reminds everybody of the bozodom right off. Of the inveterate bozodom, one should say, since even before Floridagate 2000 that was the way Little Brother talked -- as if the United States of America were of interest primarily as it figures the biography of Wunnerful Him. Normal pols with troubles as bad as the Big Management Party's have become, troubles that they hoped DP could deliver them from, would praise DP directly and try not to be noticed themselves. Not Master Bozo, however. What the remnants of the aggression faction need to know is mainly that the Dr. Gen. has been vouchsafed the favor of Kennebunkport-Crawford dynasty trust. With that in hand, how shall he fail? (Remember how M. Vladimir Putin of Muscovy won the Bozo Trust Prize too, once upon a time? For that matter, so did poor M. al-Málikí at brave New Baghdád, heaven help him!)

The weirdness and indecorum of this syndrome are even worse than they look at first glance, since as a matter of fact Little Brother of Yayle and Harvard Victory School almost certainly does not trust Dr. Gen. David Petraeus of West Point and Princeton in any political or violence-professional sense of importance. That is to say, the Bozo Trust Prize is so priceless a boon that even a fake copy of it is now to save the day.for the militant GOP! (Presumably even in theory this shtik only works as long as the militant elephants don't spot the fakery. Ideally there ought to be clinical trials: does real K-C dynastic trust save more patients than placebos feigned to be K-C dynastic trust? Considering the exact nature of the patient, however, the suggestion is no doubt unworkable.) [1]

But let's hurry on to the scapegoat bit, shall we?

Some of Petraeus's military comrades worry that the general is being set up by the Bush administration as a scapegoat if conditions in Iraq fail to improve. "The danger is that Petraeus will now be painted as failing to live up to expectations and become the fall guy for the administration," one retired four-star officer said.

Bush has mentioned Petraeus at least 150 times this year in his speeches, interviews and news conferences, often setting him up in opposition to members of Congress.

"It seems to me almost an act of desperation, the administration turning to the one most prominent official who cannot act politically and whose credibility is so far unsullied, someone who is or should be purely driven by the facts of the situation," said Richard Kohn, a specialist in U.S. military history at the University of North Carolina. "What it tells me, given the hemorrhaging of support in Congress, is that we're entering some new phase of the end game."


Hmm. That's not the weightiest evidence ever assembled, Mr. Ricks: one probably envious and certainly anonymous violence pro, one shot at Lexis-Nexis, and then Dr. Kohn, who paints himself into a rather peculiar corner. His credentials in Mil. Sci. are evidently supposed to reinforce a purely political judgment. How exactly does that gimmick work? The worthy educationist seems to be a babe in the woods about Pol. Sci.: fancy anybody supposing that Dr. Gen. Petraeus "cannot act politically"! It is a shame that Field Marshall Douglas MacArthur had to fade away before hearing that pleasantry.

Mr. Ricks must be devoted to his bassackwards approach, however, because he promptly does it again:

Retired Marine Lt. Gen. Wallace Gregson, a skilled strategist, concluded that the president is sending the message that Iraq is "a purely military problem." The lesson, he said, may be that "the military action and the political objectives are parting company." That is, he explained, the United States may make some progress by fighting insurgents and training Iraqis, but that won't affect the Iraqi leaders' ability to achieve reconciliation.


Though his qualifications seem no more suitable than Dr. Kohn's, Gen. Gregson at least talks rather better sense. [2] I don't think Little Brother and the Big Party are in fact doin' what he attributes to them, but it would be rather good (political) strategy on their part if they were. The very fact that the Party perps have never yet done anythin' as rational as that in the entire course of their aggression and occupation policies seems to me a strong argument that they aren't doin' it now either.

In any case, Gen. Gregson conflates real politics (Kennebunkport-Crawford politics, maybe even Reid & Pelosi) with the native "politics" of Green Zone collaborationists in a way in which Televisionland and the electorate are not at all likely to do. K. Rove is far more competent in his own sphere of Party twistification than his boss is at anythin' and would therefore certainly have vetoed that plan if he ever heard of it. If you suppose that Neocomrade Rove was bypassed and that Little Brother is in fact tryin' to signal that there is nothin' out there in the GOP-blessed Land of Peace and Freedom but "a purely military problem," you must surely grant that he is doin' it very badly indeed, even by his own low standards:

... Our strategy is built on the premise that progress on security will pave the way for political progress ... advance the difficult process of reconciliation at both the national and local levels ... We are starting to take the initiative away from al Qaeda -- and aiding the rise of an Iraqi government that can protect its people, deliver basic services, and be an ally in the war against extremists and radicals.


That's from yesterday's weekly propaganda broadcast . In a pinch, one might maintain on the basis of it that at this point Little Brother's sole interest in GZ collaborationists is to enlist them in the Big Management Party's Kiddie Krusade or Long War -- "be an ally in the war against extremists and radicals" --, but that cannot be what Gen. Gregson or Dr. Gen. Petraeus would refer to as "a strictly military problem." [3]

Our own view remains that Little Brother and Big Management are not now, and never have been, interested in any sort of strictness, that they'll take anythin' whatsoever or its exact opposite as long as K. Rove can dress it up as Success and Victory for Boy and Party without seemin' clinically demented to Televisionland and the electorate. That strategy would seem to leave Dr. Gen. Petraeus quite a lot of leeway: the cowpokers don't give a hoot what he does as long as he damwell does it for 'em and does it soon! One might accordingly speak of "a strictly Petraean problem," but that's rather different from what Gen. Gregson actually said.

Meanwhile, the Ricksian backhand approach culminates in a doozy:

When Bush and his aides shift military strategy, they seem to turn on the generals on whom they once relied publicly, said Lawrence Korb, a former Pentagon official. ... Shinseki ... Casey ... Pace ....

"This is an administration that wants to blame the generals," Korb said.


One can be grossly unfair even to H.R.H. the Prince of Darkness! Needless to say, the bozos of Big Management do not at all want to blame their violence pro hired hands, what they want is plainly that there should be nothin' in sight that requires to be blamed on anybody at all. Unfortunately they haven't a clue how to get there from here, so from time to time a certain amount of blamin' becomes unavoidable, and, given a choice between speakin' of technical failure and admittin' to a BigManagerial (or so-called "executive") failure on their own part, they invariably prefer the former. The spooks have been victims of this Boy-'n'-Party self-protection instinct quite as much as the generals have. [4]

Consistent right down to the bottom line, Mr. Ricks concludes with yet another Mil. Sci. professional doing amateur politics:

A senior officer in Iraq said [that in September] Petraeus will point toward several kinds of progress, such as improving security in Baghdad and the shift of tribal alliances in Anbar province away from the insurgency. But others note that those points were made in the interim report released by the White House on Thursday, without much effect on the political debate. "I am sure in September he will report some progress, but probably not enough to stop the tide to get out now," predicted Brian Linn, a military historian at Texas A&M University.


The whole scribble seems to be working up to a conclusion that Mr. Ricks finally decides is so improbable that it would be better not to mention it. In some parallel universe, however, one not too far removed from our own, the militant GOP extremists will take advantage of the Petraeus-Crocker report on the ever-victorious Surge of '07™ to finally pull a kissinger and wash their hands of Peaceful Freedumbia once and for all, protestin', in the best approved Pontius Pilate manner, that it was "a strictly military failure" and therefore not really their fault at all . . . .

The neo-Iraqi victims of Big Management should be so lucky! It's far too good to be true and belongs nowhere but in the Memoirs of Rabbi ben Trovato, unfortunately.


____
[1] President Carter made himself look pretty silly with a mere two words, "Trust me!" George XLIII Bush in effect revises that to "Trust my trust!" The loss in brevity is more than compensated for by the vast increase in silliness.

To be sure, JC was even more so than Dr. Gen. Petraeus, probably the "smartest President ever" judged purely on a scientistic IQ basis. After being almost alway the cleverest person in the room all his life, JC's "Trust me" properly meant something like "We haven't time to argue about it, but you'll soon see that I am right!" Master Dubya is not at all like that.


[2] Both Mil. Sci. "authorities" have every right to their opinions as subjects of Crawford, naturally. on the same basis as you and Mr. Bones and I do. However, that cannot have been why Mr. Ricks contacted them.


[3] Master Dubya's good ol' buddy David is notoriously a neotheorist of MacNamaran "counterinsurgency," a Mil. Sci. intellectual who as good as denies that such a creature as "a strictly military problem" could even exist in an environment like the bushogenic quagmire. That does not prove that the chickenhawk Party bozoes think so too, of course, but it does leave open the possibility that they might.


[4] Citizen Korb is not quite what I expected him to be, i.e., not a Clinton appointee. Au contraire:

In 2005 Korb, Robert O. Boorstin, and the National Security Staff of the Center for American Progress published a position paper called "Integrated Power: A National Security Strategy for the 21st Century". In it they criticized President George W. Bush for invading Iraq and for devoting inadequate resources to the fight against Islamic fundamentalism. The authors also detailed plans to increase the manpower of the United States Army, to prevent terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, to spread liberal democratic values throughout the Middle East, and to reduce American dependence on foreign oil.


Mr. Ricks rather unfairly shoots out of the bushes when he does not give his readers any inkling of those credentials.

14 July 2007

Hush!

Keep your mouth shut, turn those talk-show Ludendorffs off, clear your mind of Party cant, and just listen: . . . can't you hear it, that faint rustle over on the vigilante cowpoker side of the aisle, quietly a-buildin' . . . ?


Anticipation for the Warner-Lugar plan had been quietly building all week, particularly among the Republicans who have called for a new course in Iraq. The senators said lawmakers from both parties had expressed an interest in endorsing the plan, although it remained an open question whether it went far enough for Democratic critics of the war.

The proposal would require Mr. Bush to present to Congress by Oct. 16 contingency plans to switch to a narrower mission in Iraq, including the protection of Iraqi borders, training Iraqi forces, protecting American military personnel and going after terrorists. The senators said the plan should begin by Dec. 31.


Why should donkeys and journalists and educationists have all the fun nowadays, why can't elected pols from the Big Management Party become paleface planmongers too?

Little Brother and Oilslick Dick no doubt sincerely consider that the Ollie North Constitution grants them exclusive powers of superlegal invasion and semiconquest and occupation and Petraeo-MacNamaran counterinsurgency, yet why do they have to insist on their special privileges so brattily and so relentlessly? The rest of the OnePercenter political class might be induced to go along with all Uncle Sam's belligent powers remainin' vaguely in the hands of respectable "people like us," credentialled HVS MBA CEO GOP bigmanagers with a track record of success, people who actually know what it takes to meet a payroll (&c. &c.), whereas askin' 'em to take political risks for the Cheney-Bush Aggression Trust without even bein' put on its board of directors ornamentally is a bit steep. If the Big Management movement can't hang together more successfully than than Mr. Zeleny reports in this mornings New York Times , why, possibly Dr. Marx will have the last laugh after all!

To some slight extent the above questions are real as well as rhetorical. Unfortunately the Executive and its Boy are not on the same wavelength even strictly as a gruesome twosome: while Mr. Cheney tries to erect pseudoconstitutional ramparts around Master Bush's sole discretion, the latter keeps on talkin' as if he had surrendered the said discretion to the Big Party's violence professionals lock, stock and barrel. Little Brother does not, of course, mean what he says along those lines; the Big Party's generals and colonels remain mere hired hands, not significant decision-makers. (If Rear-Col. Freddy and the rest of the Bani Kagan think otherwise, they'll be in for a rude awakenin' even if the ever-victorious Surge of '07™ in some sense "works.")

I wonder whether the Lugars and Warners call that silly bluff when they conspire with the perps in private? The idea of runnin' the New Baghdad Railroad Company on the basis of advice from the cleanin' crew or the programmin' staff must offend them doubly, both as US Senators and, more importantly, as private-sectorian BigManagers. Once Master Bush had explained to them that he's only pretendin' to let Dr. Gen. Petraeus of Princeton and Freddy of AEI and so on be his brain, pretendin' so as to stall for more time for Stay-the-Course to begin to take effect, as who can doubt that it soon will?, the Lugars and Warners must have fallen back on their own private judgments of the true prospects for Stay-the-Course. It appears that that judgment is negative.

It is not, however, extremely negative. Conventional wisdom supposes that Little Brother and the Big Party will only be permitted to futz around and micawberize as usual in the former Iraq until the middle of September. Warner and Lugar would generously spot the Leader of their Party three-and-a-half additional months for stallin' and futzin': "the [new, improved] plan should begin by Dec. 31." Master Bush and Mr. Cheney may find such generosity inadequate as well as uppity, when the really critical deadline to be stalled through falls in early November of next year. (That's how I'd guess they perceive the true state of their aggression, anyway.) However a series of different stalls glued together will do the trick for them quite as well as one sudden outbreak of total national masochism -- "patience" -- would, and Mr. Cheney, at least, ought to be able to see the point.

Cassandra and I are inclined to think it a waste of time to pick on the Warner-Lugar paleface planmongerin' in any detail at this point in time. Most likely it won't be approved by Congress at all. Next most likely, it will be approved but then Little Brother will veto it, regardless of who may sponsor it. If it survives those two obstacles, it won't go into effect on New Year's Day 2008 in any case, because by then the executive GOP geniuses will have come up with some other way of stallin', which they will simply proclaim to be perfectly consistent with the Warlugar Resolution "as they understand it." [1]

On the other hand, something not unlike the Warlugar Resolution may arrive eventually, though it be under "President Clinton" in February 2009 and no earlier. So let's have a quick look at it: "switch to a narrower mission in Iraq, including the protection of Iraqi borders, training Iraqi forces, protecting American military personnel and going after terrorists." So what's "narrower" about that, eh?

Not a hard question: the narrowness of it can only have been conceived by the Warlugar faction as a matter of ditchin' poor M. al-Málikí's quasigovernment, or whatever additional GZ neorégime may have replaced it by the time the proposed narrowin' takes effect. Unfortunately even that little is not perfectly certain, considering that we are not told exactly what those "Iraqi forces" are to be trained for. Will they, too, only attempt to secure the "their" country's borders, or will they, perchance, be tryin' to put some collaborationist neorégime in effective control of "its own" territory? That seems not unlikely.

The only residual minimum of narrowin' that cannot simply evaporate (without undue twistification) would seem to be that Warlugar invasionites, as opposed to Cheney-Petraeus invasionites, will give up carin' about the exact nature of their collaborationist neorégime. Being me, I phrase the crucial-seeming points my way. Presumably the Warlugarites' own language runs more like "Above all, let's make sure we stay out of the natives' [exp. del.] civil war!" Their account of what the native auxiliaries are bein' trained for might be "to enforce law and order," which certainly sounds high-minded enough to be gettin' on with, does it not? [2]

Of course the whole mess of pottage has been concocted to appeal at Kansas City rather than Sadr City, so it's a bit beside the point to wonder what would happen to the neoliberateds if Warlugarism is ever actually imposed upon them. If you're eccentric enough to care about such trifles, yourr judgment will probably depend on vicarious partisanship in favour of some neoliberateds at the expense of others. Unlike most vicarious partisanisers know to me, I am predisposed in favor of poor M. al-Málikí and the UIA, or, at any rate, decidedly predisposed against all the countless TwentyPercenter factions and factionoids and factionettes, whether Ba‘thí or faith-crazed or only (?) yearning to restore the good old days of Sunni Ascendancy, without which no proper "Iraq" is possible at all, as every schoolboy knows.

Warlugarism might not be all bad, therefore. Assuming that armed forces responsible to the militant Republican extremists actually manage to seal the borders of "Iraq" even-handedly, the existing neorégime of majoritarian underdogs and unnatural masters could probably manage to hang on. If it did once start to totter, the evil Qommies could not march in to prop it up, but it is more important that without external intervention from the Sunnintern, there is no very urgent reason why it should start tottering in the first place [3] -- which is not to expect it will actually control much of the former Iraq any time soon, though.

Warlugarism remains very bad on balance all the same. It's no more than Responsible Nonwithdrawal, detestable political spinach as regards its objectives, and not impressive as strategy and tactics either. How should it be? The Warlugarites are only tryin' to please Peoria and don't even pretend to be doin' much more than that. Are there no intelligent adults in the ranks of the Kiddie Krusaders at all, then, able to recur to first principles and decide how to do this narrowing process -- which undoubtedly does need to be done, if they are to have themselves any Long War at all -- in a manner less unworthy of a Harvard Victory School master of business administration? Can't some of their Party tank-think señoritos reconsider why they aggressed their way into the former Iraq in the first place and work out a sensible minimum program of nondefeat that would be sustainable?

It should not be difficult to come up with a better product than "protection of Iraqi borders, training Iraqi forces, protecting American military personnel and going after terrorists," in which only the last item makes any sense at all as an ultimate target.[4] The other three items taken together only add up to it somehow being necessary for the Big Management Party to stay in "Iraq" because they, somehow, happen to find themselves in "Iraq" at the moment. Whatever Peoria makes of such authentic or feigned amnesia here and now, it is unlikely to recommend itself to Princess Posterity after a century or so. Be their act what it may, and whether or not they want to talk to America about what act it is, 'twould do nobody any harm at all if they'd please try to get it together a little more rigorously.





____
[1] Outside the ranks of the history-is-bunk Party, it will be recalled that Chancellor Michaelis, speaking for the General Staff, found the treaties of Brest-Litovsk entirely compatible with the Reichstag's famous Peace Resolution, "as he understood" the latter. One cannot expect Harvard Victory School MBA's to have casestudied that particular case, but they do seem to have independently reinvented this particular stick to shove into somebody else's wheels. Should the Warlugar Resolution survive the Legislative and go unvetoed by the Executive, doubtless Little Brother will attach one of his Ollie North Constitution "signin' statements" to it so as to reserve himself all the wiggle-room in the world. Poor Dr. Michaelis doubtless wasted his university years on Greek and Latin and jurisprudence instead of bigmanagerial techniques, but he didn't do so badly with what was in fact available in 1917-18.

In 2007-08, it won't take much twistification of "the protection of Iraqi borders" or "going after terrorists" to give the Kiddie Krusaders whatever they want to grab. One test of the sincerity of the Warlugar faction will be whether they stick in lots of hard numbers about warm bodies and almighty dollars that would be much harder to artfully dodge. On the other hand, the more of that devilish sort of detail gets included, the fewer Senators and Representatives from the OnePercenter classes will vote for the bill, and the more likely it is to be just plain vetoed.


[2] Despite over four years of Big Management under GOP auspices, there is a remarkable amount of ignorance about the happy Land of Peace and Freedom, not least in Party circles. A good many Warlugarites may simply not be aware how out of place "only to enforce law and order" is in the really existing bushogenic quagmire, as if they, or anybody else, could discuss that matter without first decidin' exactly WHOSE Rulalaw is to be imposed. Others of them, though, are bound to be cynics who in cold blood care nothin' for anybody's Rulalaw except the GOP's, which Senators Lugar and Warner have provided for carefully under the rubric of "going after terrorists."


[3] Ms. Conventional Wisdom and I disagree about the current occupation policy on at least one significant question. She takes it for granted, as much at Ann Arbor as at Rancho Crawford, that imposing ferocious Affirmative Action measures for the allegedly oppressed TwentyPercenters would tend to stabilize the collaborationist neorégime, maybe even pacify the whole colonial shebang. I begin by thinking the contrary, so adoption of a Warlugarite occupation policy seems likely to produce unanticipated consequences that for once would be mildly beneficial, actually strengthening that neorégime that the Big Management Party might superficially appear to be tossin' off the sledge to the wolves. A good stumble by the inveterate stumblebums for once, think of that! (Once it's put like that, though, it seems a sure thing that Oilslick Dick and George XLIII will fight tooth and nail to make sure it never happens. But that's only what I already told you is likeliest to happen.)


[4] The Democrats might notice this point also and try to use it against the aggressionites, saying perhaps "Since all that you folks ultimately care about is fightin' Globoterror, why don't we all just write off your irrelevant doo-doo in the former Iraq and start seriously fighting Globoterror?"

Such a challenge won't actually make any impression on the Party perps, who in fact have a number of other things on their minds over and above Globoterror, but all the same, this Warlugar bluff demands to be called. Let's find out whether they they can be compelled to mention what GOP invasionism really wants out loud, with no silly attempts to euphemize about "stability" or the like. Even if they don't answer at all, as probably they will not, they might get some of those AEIdeologue and Hoovervillian señoritos of theirs to think about it and report back secretly to Party Central. Even if their true goals are so abominable as to be unmentionable, it would be, as M. Pascal and I consider, a good thing if they could think better about them rather than worse.

13 July 2007

"an interesting document"

Slogger City has unearthed a sort of Martian perspective on the militant GOP's semiconquest and occupation of the former Iraq. Doctor General Winslow Wheeler evidently thinks he is speaking for the patients rather than the Big Party managers of the asylum, but that is very questionable. Nevertheless, his comments on the Benchmark Baloney document are considerably more interesting than the thing itself:


What comes through even more clearly is the imposition of alien benchmarks on the Iraqi society and its faltering government. These benchmarks are not an effort to assist Iraq recover from the disaster of the American invasion and occupation, they are an effort to impose Western, if not American, values and methods on a society that has been resisting them, mostly violently, for the last four years. Perhaps even more to the point, the benchmarks have every appearance of an effort to make American politicians, not Iraqi citizens, feel better about themselves. An oil law to assist non-Iraqi oil companies extract resources, Western notions of constitutional law and minority rights, federalism - if not regionalism leading to virtual partition - and ending forthwith centuries old divisions in the society are just some of the end states the benchmarks seek to effect.


The rhetoric of that paragraph begs one to turn it around and speculate that what the wretched invasionized indigs really need at this juncture is Oriental values and methods that would make them feel better about themselves by cherishing, rather than terminating, centuries-old divisions.

Au moins il est différent! [1]

Unfortunately, such an eccentric position needs more exposition than it gets. Instead of developing it, however, the alien scribbler immediately does pretty well the last thing one would expect, he instantly forgets all about our neo-Iraqi subjects and starts going on about ourselves:

Moreover, the politicians in the White House and Congress pushing the benchmarks are probably thankful these tests are not being imposed on them, if the thought of oversight of themselves were ever to occur to them. For example -

--Benchmark X seeks to permit Iraqi military commanders "to make tactical and operational decisions ... without political intervention ..." That would have been an excellent suggestion for former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and several others during the run up to the initial American invasion and for the political wrangling going on this very week in Congress from both sides of the political aisle.

--The discussion in the White House report on benchmark XI ("Ensuring that Iraqi Security Forces are providing even-handed enforcement of the law") complains that, "There have been inadequate efforts to detain some senior ... officials believed responsible for human rights abuses...." The hypocrisy of this "benchmark" pains the core of every decent American's soul.

--Benchmark VI calls on Iraqis to enact amnesty legislation, something that was a long time in coming after the American Civil War and that today's anti-immigration activists scream against from the rooftops; it bespeaks a frame of mind that many Republicans and Democrats in Congress never fail to reject as they pretend to lament the absence of bipartisanship.


Ordinarily any attempt at application of the Goose-and-Gander Principle enlists my sympathies, but in this particular case, not so fast! Does the Dr. Gen. really consider

(1) that chickenhawk control of the military is a mistake?

(2) that, once let off that leash, the violence pros are to run about arresting chickenhawks for "human rights abuses"?

(3) that there is more than a verbal connection between "amnesty" for wetbacks and for Sunni shootists?

The last item is outstandingly perverse in its selection of gooses and ganders. Strict parallelism would suggest, surely, that it is the Crawfordites who need to be let off the hook for illegal entry into somebody else's country? [2]

Perhaps none of these suggestions is completely insane, but like the implied basic therapy for "Iraq," they are so far out of the beaten path that they can hardly be PowerPointed at us as if they were easy and obvious and require no special explaining and defending.

The third bullet was a twofer, and it does rather commend itself to theorize that nobody on Capitol Hill really relishes bipartisanship. Yesterday's vote in the lower chamber suggests something of the sort,

[T]he Democratic-controlled House responded by voting almost totally along party lines to require that the United States withdraw most combat troops from Iraq by April 1. The 223-to-201 House vote, in which just four Republicans broke with their party, came as the White House continued its intense effort to stem a growing tide of Republican defections on the war.


There may even be a not-so-far-fetched application to the happy Land of Peace and Freedom, although to be fair, one should probably recognize that forty-three-partisanship in the Green Zone must be somewhat trickier than anything merely bi-.

Finally,

Are the benchmarks an honest and soundly based effort to assist Iraqi society and government? Or, are they an excuse-in-waiting for American politicians to exploit when they try to explain away the failure of a half decade of misbegotten policy, more than half a trillion dollars, and 3,600-plus American military lives[?]

Bush's new "Initial Benchmark Assessment Report" is an interesting document, but it should be read to understand American political maneuvering with respect to the war, rather than a measure of "progress" in Iraq.


The crowning oddness: he tells us how to read the Benchmark Baloney document and goes away, neither having read it that way himself nor offering to help us do so. (Mars must be a funny place!)

At Slogger City, the point of disseminating this exotic curio must more or less be to indicate that the natives don't enjoy being benchmarked. There is also another piece to the same effect by another writer with a distincly non-indig sounding name, "Ambassador Chas Freeman." He writes rather more sensibly , but also before the Big Party baloney was actually put on sale. Here's a sample:

Meanwhile, our use of force is not seen by many Iraqis as legitimate and the more we use our military power the more we delegitimize it. The more the current Iraqi regime is seen to depend on our military power, the less legitimacy and authority it enjoys. We cannot transfer the authority we do not have to a regime that lacks both the power and the authority to receive it.


The Pol. Sci. is open to question a little, perhaps, for "legitimacy" can be a slippery word. [3] It is difficult to imagine any recommendation on the militant GOP's occupation policy other than Irresponsible Withdrawal coming from that quarter. [4] Still, Amb. Chas. doesn't actually say so, and perhaps one shouldn't attempt to read his mind. There's no rush, after all, now that Little Brother has made perfectly plain that nothin' will be changin' as long as He can help it.


___
[1] The Visserian-Badgerian junta won't find it different at all, to be sure, and especially not that ever-abominable sting in the tail end. In VB-land (just northwest of Cloudcuckooland) everybody knows that "sectarianism" and "divisions" were imported into Mesopotamia only on Republican Party bayonets, being previously entirely unheard of in those parts.

It would be tidier if all self-appointed spokesmen for restless natives agreed straight down the line, but evidently they do not: the VB's have a sweet tooth for "constitutional law and minority rights" as well as a stern contempt of "centuries old divisions." Their extreme schizophobia is perfectly compatible with Dr. Gen. Wheeler's, no doubt, but since none of the other paleface impositionists are seriously working to rip the lovely folkloric tapesty of "Iraq" to shreds, the point does not loom very large at the moment.


[2] Also, he omits the broader parallel in which one sovereign, independent, democratic and constitutional State gets to benchmarkize and impose upon another nominal ditto as much as it likes, while turning the asymmetry around would seem as unnatural as water flowing uphill. On the other hand, since Dr. Gen. Wheeler appears to be a Huntin'tonian Clashist,™ the sort of neo-ideologue who hypothesizes a radical incommensurality between THEM and us, perhaps he did well enough to leave all that alone.

Still, if operating inside the Clashist framework, should he have permitted himself the lesser goose-and-ganderisms either? Has he actually checked to make sure that "Turn-about is fair play" and "How would you like it if I did that to you?" are not mere parochial and provincial maxims, "Western, if not American, values and methods"? Perhaps he himself knows exactly where West stops and East begins, but he has not told us where the border is and I don't see how we can reasonably be expected to guess his views.


[3] Here again, somebody ought to call up Mr. Huntington of Harvard and verify that "legitimacy" is a catholic value and method rather than some petty parochial Occidentalism.


[4] The policy implications of Dr. Gen. Winslow Wheeler are none too clear. He could be an Irresponsible Withdrawalist, "the failure of a half decade of misbegotten policy" &c. &c. points in that direction. Maybe. But he might also be a sort of disciple of Neocomrade Dr. D. Pipesovitch, who considers that withdrawal could be responsible if a "pro-democracy strongman" is switched on when the extremist GOP finally goes out the door. WW would probably demand rather less pro-democracy than DP, perhaps it would suffice if Saddam Redux merely agrees that democracy is a very fine thing for Westerners, even Americans, but unfortunately . . . .

12 July 2007

Wherein Big Management Grades Itself

Your typical politicized Harvard Victory School MBA is not an academic, she is a bigmanageress, an executrix, which means that in her own weird Party-of-Grant way, she is a devotee of Dr. Marx, ever proposin' to change the world, not merely observe it. Observation is extremely repulsive to her, in fact, even when it only means her havin' to learn facts and take account of reality. The opposite arrangement, base reality observing and judging noble Big Management, is even worse: Mizz MBA and Mr. Richard Bruce Cheney react to that dreadful prospect as Count Dracula might react to a garlic frappe. Yet somehow after four years of unremittin' GOP genius applied to the problems of success that the Party's aggression has encountered or manufactured in the former Iraq, Embee A. and Dick C. find themself not only bein' observed, but actually bein' graded ! "O God, O Bernard Lewis, what went wrong?"

However Harvard Victory School may be worth what it costs, since both long-term and short-term countermeasures are already in progress. Dick C. discovered the extraconstitutionality of the Office of the Vice President far too late in the day for the creation of the happiness of Peaceful Freedumbia to have been conducted under that (absence of) authority, but next time around Big Management will know what to do, or rather, where to do it out of sight altogether, snug inside a political event horizon. Not possessing an HVS MBA myself, though, I wonder how they will handle a couple of problems that may arise:

(1) How shall their black hidey-hole be guaranteed to suck in an adequate supply of taxpayer dollars? Yet perhaps somethin' along the lines of Neocomrade Colonel O. North savin' Nicaragua could be arranged, for dollars are fungible, are they not? In the long run, taxpayers can probably be dispensed with altogether -- and incidentally this happens to have been a Party Utopia ever since 1913, for no more taxpayers can only mean No More Taxes! Financial wheelin' 'n' dealin' is the one thing every HVS MBA ought to be good at, so we lay sheep can fairly safely presume that they'll figure out a way.

(2) More serious, perhaps, is that all future Big Management Party administrations will have to conform to the model of this one, a model that certainly looks as if it began accidentally. That is to say, the nominal top job, the slot occupied by George XLIII Bush at the moment, must be relegated to the realm of the ornamental, because it lies outside the Black Hole of Power. Whether one supposes this will be a problem for them depends on one's ethical evaluation of the HVS MBA classes: are they 100.0% devoted to bigmanagin', or do they hanker after personal glory too? I see no reason to doubt their total devotion to the ideals of Lord Mammon, yet even so, there is always the chance that the figurehead on top and the master spider at the OVP might conscientiously disagree about whatever caper they happen to be up to in, say, 2127. Perhaps it would be better if only the spider candidates had HVS MBA's in future, all the Party's figurehead candidates bein' either lawyers, if it is still acceptable to Wingnut City and Rio Limbaugh in 2027 that an extremist Republican president should be an attorney, as tradition used to dictate, or a violence professional, or even a mere liberal-arts graduate. [1]

So much for strategy. As for tactics in the current skirmish, Embee A. remembers her HVS semi-Marxism well enough, for here she is tryin' to change (a.k.a. "qualify") the gradin' system and not tamely submittin' to it:

The Bush administration will assert in the next few days that progress in carrying out the new American strategy in Iraq has been satisfactory on nearly half of the 18 benchmarks set by Congress, according to several administration officials. But it will qualify some verdicts by saying that even when the political performance of the Iraqi government has been unsatisfactory, it is too early to make final judgments, the officials said. The administration’s decision to qualify many of the political benchmarks will enable it to present a more optimistic assessment than if it had provided the pass-fail judgment sought by Congress when it approved funding for the war this spring.


Here we witness what is a pretty nifty bigmanagerial tactic considered in itself, that is to say, considered materialiter. Yet the Form of it is even niftier, since is it not the Form of autoleakage [2] and preëmptive retaliation? Behind Dr. Marx, stands Aristotle, and I'm glad to see that HVS alumnuses learn at least a little from the Master too. Given the ever-glorious Harvard Case Method™, it is unlikely that HVS MBA's ever consciously formulate the principle "Form trumps matter," but what could exemplify that principle better than this first strike? Embee A. and Dick C. don't crudely try to turn the Big Party's particular F's into B's with a pen, as any lazy but not uncrafty schoolboy might do, they boldly challenge the whole Form of the report card! [3]

One wonders if the empowered neocomrades realize themselves how nifty and even philosophical their tactical gimmick is. They may think they are doin' little more than suppylin' what is left of the Congressional Aggression Caucus with some talkin' points to mitigate the impact of the report card as reported in the "drive-by media." Alternatively, they may think of this morning's ingenious shtik as an obvious extension -- a mere "qualification" if you like -- of Little Brother's notorious signin' statements, wherein He condescends to inform political America which parts of the Legislative Branch's so-called laws He deems worthy to be executed.

For once the clowns of Crawford even exhibit a certain sense of measure: they don't award themselves any preposterous 'B+' under the Qualified Benchmark System, only a "nearly half satisfactory," plus a sort of supererogatory 'A' for effort handwritten in the margin. Furthermore, they have already taken steps to cut off any further uppity reportcardism at the pass:

Despite an overwhelming House vote last month to revive the Iraq Study Group, the White House has blocked reconvening the bipartisan panel to provide a second independent assessment of the military and political situation in Iraq ....


None of this unexpected cleverness does anythin' detectable towards finally achievin' a Big Party success and victory in the former Iraq. But who knows, perhaps this decreased mismanagement of the War against the Democrat Congress will lead to decreased mismanagement out in the boondocks also?

Of course in war and even "war" the enemy counts for somethin' too, at least some of the time. How will the treacherous Party of Defeatism respond? I don't expect very much, probably only some angry noises about George XLIII movin' the goalposts to suit Himself and the Party and some other angry noises about what pollsters say the American People wants, but no significant follow-through. When it comes to actually influencing George XLIII's aggression and occupation policies, there is much for Senator Reid and Speaker Pelosi to be defeatist about, opinion polls notwithstanding. They would be well advised to lie low and permit the non-suicidal representatives of militant extremist Republicanism to attempt most of the heavy liftin'. Dick C. and Embee A. and little Georgie W. may turn out to be uninfluencable even by their own Party co-conspirators, but that enterprise is not quite so antecedently hopeless as to think that they'll ever submit to bein' dictated to by mere donkeys.


____
[1] Most of the obstacles to perfectin' political Big Management on HVS MBA lines are mentioned in the Fedguv Constitution, notably Congress and the judiciary. Nevertheless there are others that are not, of which the most important is probably that Grant's Old Party is to some extent required to behave like a genuine political party in order to win elections. This sad necessity interferes seriously with Total Big Management schemes, an interference well illustrated by the Great Xenophobia Fuss of 2007, which drew the line clearly between the GOP geniuses proper, the core conspiracy of economic OnePercenters, and mere trailer-trash Party base and vile. Even aligned with a (slight) enemy majority on Capitol Hill, the Big Managers lost that round., and lost it badly. Perhaps when Rupert Baron Murdoch takes over at the Wall Street Jingo the situation may improve somewhat for the OnePercenters. He, at least, knows better than to try to sell the trailer trash Big Management policies with the same sort of arguments that would be presentable at the Harvard Victory School.

Here is a third sense in which Embee A. and Dick C. should strive to avoid observation: it won't do for the base and vile ever to notice that they are objects of Big Management and not merely its loyal electoral allies. Accordingly, the Party cannot be simply ordered to nominate persons with such-and-such credentials for such-and-such offices. The Big Party at large can not even be made privy to the advantages of vice-presidential black holism; many or most of them would fail to see how advantageous they are. As a consequence, the trailer trash will probably keep on nominatin' unsuitable presidential candidates from time to time, candidates who, among other possible defects, will not at all expect to relate to their own ticket's second fiddle as Little Brother relates to RBC.

Since to overcome this hurdle involves "personnel management" rather than "financial management" in Harvard Victory School jargon, we lay sheep need not be so vicariously optimistic that they'll figure out a way around it. Perhaps actual results will mainly depend on just what caper they're up to in each instance. If it is important enough, President Figurehead will submit to his eclipse, bigmanagementwise, for only on that basis can the loot be grabbed for the Big Party at all. But when the loot doesn't seem all that enticin', or when Figurehead happens to be an egomaniac jerk, the vast potential of black holism will go underutilized. Hopefully on such occasions the Wall Street Jingos will abstain from complainin' about this underutilization where they might be overheard and misunderstood.

Little Brother, by the way, although far from the sort of egomaniacal jerkdom that would wreck black holism altogether, is not entirely satisfactory either. He perhaps has not enough personality to want to make a cult of it, yet his habit of attendin' each new swerve and blunder in the Party's aggression and occupation policy with as many drums and trumpets as Mr. Rove can muster has not been helpful on balance. At this point Mr. Bush may, or may not, have perceived that it would be best that Televisionland and the electorate pay as little attention to what is goin' on in Peaceful Freedumbia as human wit can arrange. If he had acted by the maxim "Win first, crow later" throughout the course of the Kiddie Krusade, he might not have won any more than he has, but plainly the doo-doo he's in now would be somewhat less deep.



[2] Autoleakage by its nature is never going to work perfectly. Big Management can get the New York Times to print the basic Boy-'n'-Party press release in a case like this one, but cannot prevent the MSM fiends from also insinuating, more or less distinctly, that possibly they may be tryin' to cheat. Messrs. Burns and Cloud don't insinuate very hard in my view, although probably at Rio Limbaugh this article will be considered a monstrosity of twistification.



[3] Presumably that is not the Form that they'd ideally like to challenge and change and "qualify" first and foremost, but the difficulties mentioned in the previous note make a headlong assault on the Form of Congressional Oversight unadvisable.

10 July 2007

Moderation Just Around the Corner?

"The fate of and fight for control over Iraq's oil is the same [as the fate of and fight] for the country itself"
--Vide Infra

Slogger City managed to find something about "Iraq" in the press of Brave New Baghdád yesterday:

According to al-Mada and Az-Zaman, the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani stated that the “alliance of the moderates” will be announced soon, and that political efforts are ongoing to secure the Islamic Party on the side of the “alliance.” Despite the fact that the Islamic Party holds few seats in the parliament, the presence of a Sunni party is perceived as essential by Talabani and Maliki, in order to bestow upon the alliance a “trans-sectarian” character.

Talabani also announced, in a press conference, that the ministers representing the Sunni Accord front will resume their functions in the government. The Accord front, representing the largest Sunni bloc in the parliament, had suspended the participation of its ministers and deputies in the cabinet and the parliament in protest over the ousting of the Sunni Speaker and the prosecution of a Sunni minister who was accused of being involved in political assassinations and other criminal acts.


Before the invasionites break out the champagne at Rancho Crawford, and the Sunni Internationals their fizzy date soda at London, there are a few discouraging words to be said about certain clouds that accompany the silver lining:

(1) It's not all that much of a silver lining, that is to say, triumph of invasion-based neojournalism, that local yokels should be able to report press conferences conducted in "their" own "capital."

(2) The amateurs' report actually contains nothing that the professionals of the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust could not have managed as well from a couple of time zones away.

(3) The snippet itself follows eight paragraphs of AAPT material and occupies the lowest place at table. The AAPT is represented in Tuesday's summatorial by al-Quds al-‘Arabí and al-Hayát and by Slogger City's usual primary source, the Estuary Arabic edition of The Times of Bazzázístán Inside the snippet proper, "al-Zamán" could conceivably refer to the subsidiary Tigris River City edition. Perhaps that is even more likely: the UK Bazzázístánís must possess more reliable sources for the Accord Front than M. Jalál Tálebání of the Free Kurds. On the other hand, the reading of the quasipresident's mind -- "the presence of a Sunni party is perceived as essential ... in order to bestow upon the alliance a 'trans-sectarian' character" -- must have been already editorial before it was summatorialized. Such a two cents' worth as that, though possible at New Baghdad, would be even safer from exile. Not that it matters much either way.

(4) The JCIA, Juan Cole Intelligence Agency, in its own summatorial of this date offers the following from an unevaluated invasion-language source :

Ben Lando reports that the petroleum bill in parliament is facing nearly universal opposition from a wide range of political groups. He says, "The Sadr Movement and the Iraqi Accord Front now say they may end the boycott specifically to challenge the law. The former held mass rallies over the weekend in opposition to Maliki. IAF says it will call for a vote of no confidence in him." So, the Bush administration, in pressing so hard for the petroleum bill, has only managed to stir up a lot of opposition. Even the boycotting parties are willing to suspend their boycott long enough to vote against it!


Mr. Lando belongs to the UPI, which belongs to the Rev. Moon, an affiliation which makes his stuff fishy over and above the inevitable cartoonishness of any thought originally thought about "Iraq" in English. Still, for what's it not worth,

U.S. President Bush may be right: Iraq's oil law, although highly controversial, could be a "benchmark for reconciliation." When Iraq's council of ministers last week suddenly approved the law, critics of various stripes united in opposition. Shiite and Sunni political parties alike denounced it, vowed to defeat it, even threatened to ensure Parliament can't take it up. It is seen by some as weakening the central government and giving too much to foreign companies. (...) In the midst of a war zone of more than four years old, the Bush administration itself could be the most divisive agent. And, it's the White House's support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's administration, as well as the heavy pressure on it to pass the oil law, that could draw together the fractured country.

The fate of and fight for control over Iraq's oil is the same for the country itself. At issue is to what extent the federal government, as stewards of Iraq as a whole, will decide oil policy.


Fishy indeed is Dr. Ben Lando: in addition to being funded from ChristoKorea, he is billed as "UPI Energy Correspondent" and yet plainly wants to shape his corporation's customers' minds about the politics of Crawford and New Baghdad. Doubtless there exists a certain point of view from which it looks axiomatic that control of "the country itself" is indistinguishable from control of the fossil fuel underneath the GOP's semiconquered provinces. Mere natives are unlikely to agree, however, and even militant Republicans of the extractionist tribe would probably prefer that their greedy schemes be hushed up rather than brazenly paraded.

Prof. Cole doubtless liked this guy's sarcasms at the expense of George XLIII and did not consciously intend to associate himself with the Lando Axiom.

As an observer of Green Zone collaborationist politics, Dr. Lambo's credentials are improbable and almost remote as Luna, yet his remarks are not without a certain logic. If the only thing that really matters about Peaceful Freedumbia is how much crude oil it pumps, it would be much more convenient to forget about all that tedious "federalism" jazz and get started actually pumpin' some. The more schizophobic indigs therefore appeal to him, whether TwentyPercenters or Sadrists. Rather unfortunately, they dislike the yoke of Crawford as much as they dislike the obscene and evil notion of partitioning "Iraq." Nevertheless, anybody who takes the Lando Axiom with full attention and seriousness is bound to conclude that getting the petroleum out even trumps letting GOP military forces remain forever. A fortiori the Axiom trumps poor M. al-Málikí's narrow sectarian agenda and forbids Landovians to take any interest in the "sovereignty" and "independence" and "democracy" and "constitutionality" of the current neorégime. [1] These things, too, are irrelevant rubbish that must be swept out of the way as rapidly as possible.

Mazout d'abord! [2].

Meanwhile, back at Slogger City, the supposedly promised Málikí-Tálebání brand of "moderation" could make a deal with the Landovians, I suppose. Pretty well any future neorégime imaginable, including an "Islamic State of Iraq" and a Pipesovitchian pro-democracy Strong Man as well as less displeasing arrangements, would have to sell the gunky black stuff to somebody. Presumably. Everybody always talks that way, do they not?

It's rather a pity, though, that there do not be any of Crawford's neo-Iraqi subjects who take the exact flip side of Dr. Lando's admirably single-minded stance, defining their own "Iraq" as a success or failure simply in terms of oil production numbers, without wasting any time on politics, and editorials. and summatorials, and "federalism," and "sectarianism," and Dr. R. Visser's mystical vicarious Unitarian Nationalism, and the Safavid Menace, and ... and so on and so forth.

"Why can't those short-sighted indigs grasp that the only reason they need to exist at all is Pumpin' Oil?"

I'm afraid I don't care for the Landovian or ChristoKorean perspective all that much, really, apart from the Kirkegaard-worthy singlemidedness of it. Any competent rhetor could turn most neo-Iraqi subjects against it with ease, including those particular crews of native pols that Dr. Lando likes best and perhaps hopes to help empower. Even they will not be thinking that "moderation" means caring for nothing but petroleum, just as they will never really comply with Republican Party extremism's notion of "moderation," the one that centralizes savin' the face of Grant's Old Party and vindicatin' the dogma of Preëmptive Retaliation.

Both these moderation products have their diverse points of merit, perhaps, yet they are not the sort of merits likely to gain a large market share out in Peaceful Freedumbia. By and large, the selfish and ungrateful beasts think only of their own concerns, and cannot exalt themselves to the level of these more global wonders. That is to say, they are exactly on a par with invasion-basers and petroleum-lovers, for whom the only question that ever really matters is "Now, what can you do for me?"

Perhaps some sort of moderation could be erected on that unpromising foundation by very skillful political architects, but given the imbecile hands that US aggression and occupation policy is actually in at the moment, the "moderation" of A always winds up demandin' an impossible degree of altruism or masochism from B. Such is the case also amongst the GZ collaborationist pols and the theocommunities that they represent, although it is a bit less true of the Free Kurds, who mostly want only to be left alone, than of the TwentyPercenters and the rootless cosmopolitans and the majoritarian Twelvers. And of course if the neighbors are to be dragged into it, the Sunnintern and the Qommies and the Kurdophobe Turks and the Jewish Statists are quite as bad as anybody else in sight.

One begs pardon of God.


___
[1] Naturally Dr. Lando must have calculated that dispensing with the presence of armed paleface Republicans will not produce such chaos and disorder in the former Iraq as to render getting the oil out impossible or prohibitively expensive. Either that, or he takes for granted that the invasion-basers are goin' to hafta go away soon no matter what.

Probably the latter guess is better, since outside Wingnut City and Rio Limbaugh and the Oval Office, that sort of treasonous defeatism may pass for conventional wisdom nowadays. Dr. Lando's credentials for discussing the violence profession or exploring the more esoteric mysteries of Crawfordology are likely to be no better than his credentials as a Levantine area student, so to guess that he takes commonplace positions on all such minor and peripheral questions is plausible enough.

He may even -- this is rash speculation, admittedly -- be attempting to some extent, consciously or unconsciously, to ingratiate himself in advance with the sixth Green Zone neorégime, the one after poor M. al-Málikí's. Should his calculations work out ideally, it will do him no harm at all to be able to remind the Quasiminister of Petroleum in that government-to-come that in July 2007 he wrote

Despite sharing two key tenets of the war on terrorism, the United States isn't supporting the coalition [of Sunnis and Sadrists and centralists generally].

State Department Iraq Coordinator David Satterfield, answering questions in March about what has been self-termed the "National Salvation Government," vowed support for Maliki's government. "It is not helpful to talk about alternatives," he said.

But alternatives may force themselves into the conversation, especially on the heels of the oil law.




[2] "Crude oil," don't you know?

09 July 2007

Wishful Thinkers Think Alike

Senator Hagel's hopes and hopeful thoughts are fixed chiefly upon Party and his own career: how are the less extreme Republican extremists to avoid going down with those utter maniacs for preëmptive retaliation who allegedly cluster around the Vice-President of the Unites States? The latter are so far around the bend by now that the Big Party itself is beginnin' to seem an encumbrance to them, which is rather a short-sighted view. What will it profit them to have exalted the Executive Branch far above any pretense of carin' about accountability or Rulalaw, if all the potential for unlawful combatancy by the Oval Office that they have laboriously heaped together falls into the hands of America's party? Professor Willentz of Princeton writes about the Cheney perversion this morning in connection with the twentieth anniversary of Neocomrade Colonel Oliver North's testimony to Congress on behalf of presidential hyperlegalism:

Asked by a reporter in 2005 to explain his expansive views about presidential power, Mr. Cheney replied, “If you want reference to an obscure text, go look at the minority views that were filed with the Iran-contra committee.”

“Nobody has ever read them,” he said, but they “are very good in laying out a robust view of the president’s prerogatives with respect to the conduct of especially foreign policy and national security matters.”


It looks like the Senator from Nebraska has not read the Ollie Papers either, or perhaps he did read them and found them alarmin' and deplorable from a Big Party standpoint. The fringe zealots may care about Big Management in the abstract, or about the interests of the Tel Aviv statelet, or even, conceivably, about vindicatin' the principle that international thuggery works. None of these causes are identical with the cause of the Big Party and can therefore conflict with it, which seems to be about the point that the militant GOP has actually come to. I daresay fringe zealots, too, think wishfully about somethin' or another. A sudden divine intervention on behalf of neocomrades Petraeus and Crocker would be come in very conveniently for them, but politics being the art of the possible, we shall restrict ourselves to those who wish more thoughtfully for some happy turn of events that is not completely unreality-based.

That exclusion brings us to their Senator Hagel :

An international mediator, under the auspices of the UN Security Council and with the full support of the Iraqi government, should be established. The mediator should have the authority of the international community to engage Iraq's political, religious, ethnic and tribal leaders in an inclusive political process. In letters last month to President George W. Bush and the UN secretary-general I urged them urgently to consider this initiative.


That wishfulness is not on a par with the North Atlantic turning to soda water by the end of the month, it's like wanting a blizzard for one's August picnic down at Rancho Crawford. Once a millennium or so such freakish things actually happen. The gross improbability of it is, needless to say, not that such a mechanism could not be set up, only that it would actually satisfy Neocomrade Hagel's expectations, which include, lemme see, "political reconciliation" and a "turn away from sectarian violence" and "[r]eversing Iraq's slide into chaos" and - golly! - "a sustainable and constructive comprehensive regional security framework" and . . . . But that's quite enough to be getting on with! (Parenthetically, however, one may notice that all of the sugar and spice is expected to have some tendency to save the Big Management Party's face as well as be relished for itself. There is no need to suppose that the neocomrade is tryin' to hide the Party angle; doubtless he only felt it would be of scant interest to customers of The Financial Times.)

At the other end of the Wishful Thinker's Five Foot Shelf of Books™, so to speak, we encounter the following bookend, which is discussing the New York Times Company's weekend exercise in paleface planmongering:

One important point where the editorial-- unlike the ISG report and much current thinking in the US political elite-- mirrors the thinking I have always articulated about the diplomacy required to negotiate this speedy and orderly withdrawal is that it calls explicitly for a UN role. Not only in the section excerpted above, but also later on where it says: The United States military cannot solve the problem. Congress and the White House must lead an international attempt at a negotiated outcome. To start, Washington must turn to the United Nations, which Mr. Bush spurned and ridiculed as a preface to war. It also, like the ISG, myself, and all informed realists, recognizes that Iran and Syria must be fully engaged in this diplomatic effort.


Doubtless Sen. Hagel qualifies for admission to the select band of "all informed realists," even if he would not dump on his Little Brother with any of that "spurned and ridiculed" stuff. And naturally he reveres the Gospel According to Hamilton and Baker as much as any other self-selected bandit. The Times editors, to their credit, admit an occasional flicker of common sense to temper their Panglossianity, for instance in the sentence above, where they speak only of an "attempt" and do not blithely suppose that "a negotiated outcome" is already as good as in the bag if only Dick Cheney could be got around. [1]

Since the Senator's wishful thinkin' is twofold, perhaps we should add a little more from the opposite end to address the native politics aspect as well as the collective security aspect:

Also, quite honestly, once the US commits [itself] to a firm date for a total withdrawal, the entire political dynamics within Iraq will change. The motivation for Iraqis to give any sustained support to the rootless agitators of Al-Qaeda would be diminished considerably, if not completely. This whole idea of the US needing continuing permission to operate inside Iraq "to combat the terrorist forces" is a dangerous canard.


"Quite honestly" is a bit peculiar: why should Dr. Pangloss suppose that anybody doubts the sincerity of his unlikely prognostications? [2] Far be that from us!

==

Incidentally, both parties have a tendency to talk kinda funny: 'canard' does not seem to be quite the word to match the intended meaning, viz. "major mistake," and Mr. Hagel uses "mediator" as if it were the name of a thing rather than a person. The FT editors set him straight, calling his piece "A less American face for mediation in Iraq." That is not the ideal formulation either, though, since it absurdly suggests that what the Big Management Party has been up to in Mesopotamia since March 2003 is to be classified as Yank-faced mediation.



____
[1] The NYTC peacemongering is not altogether unequivocal, although the primâ facie way to take it is as only more Panglossian informed realism. However an alternative cynical interpretation is possible, I believe, namely that that sort of thing is proposed as a sort of going-through-the-motions, a necessary concession to decency or decorum that is not seriously expected to have much effect on the bushogenic quagmire. In any event, it was amazing to read the following paragraph in the Times:

Iraq’s leaders — knowing that they can no longer rely on the Americans to guarantee their survival — might be more open to compromise, perhaps to a Bosnian-style partition, with economic resources fairly shared but with millions of Iraqis forced to relocate. That would be better than the slow-motion ethnic and religious cleansing that has contributed to driving one in seven Iraqis from their homes.


Not only does the passage sound as if the NYTC just hired Ambassador Galbraith, to recognize that a ruthless and cold-blooded plan like "millions forced to relocate" can actually work at times smacks of the wicked old uninformed Realpolitik.

(Of course what is really going on there could easily be only that the editorial was written by a committee.)



[2] The self-defensiveness might be a sort of flip side to the (possible) cynicism of the New York Times. That is to say, Pangloss may be worried that some will think he, too, does not much care what happens in the former Iraq as long as it stops being manifestly Uncle Sam's fault. Nobody acquainted with the vast corpus of his scribbling would think that low thought, however.

Unfortunately the vast corpus does not (yet) contain a discussion of Hagel's piece, so one can't tell whether it would be prognosticated that the pol's approach to savin' the face of his Party must fail, as regards the natives and their region, because it does not involve a total withdrawal of GOP troops.

The Senator, for his part, did not so much as mention the words "terror" or "terrorism," and that omission cannot be merely a matter of considering the tastes and interests of UK readers. Nevertheless, it is a near certainty that he would not consider it a "canard" to propose to retain some Republican Party forces in the former Iraq for purposes of counterterrorism, quite possibly even without askin' for permission continually.

06 July 2007

Invasion-Based Feminism


Violence Causes Gender Role Swap

In a society where men are the traditional breadwinners, women are increasingly forced to take on that role.

The violence in Baghdad has forced some Iraqi families to shift gender roles, as men are stuck at home while women bear increasing responsibilities.

Because many men in Baghdad are now afraid to go out to work or even to leave the house, women are earning the money, doing the shopping and handling the bills – duties that were traditionally carried out by men.

Men say they feel trapped at home, while women say they are left with too much work. (...)

Rabiha al-Azawi, a psychology professor at the University of Mustansiriyah in Baghdad, expressed concern that family breakups and domestic violence were on the increase in homes where the power balance has shifted. "We live in an Oriental society where a man who doesn’t work is not deserving of respect," she said.


Notice that the lady Ph.D. states this non-desert as an objective fact, Mr. Bones -- doubtless because she lives as she does in a rather severely kennebunkport-crawfordated Oriental society, plus also kindly remember her society's previous course of Ba‘th Therapy. Under the GOP yoke, Walter Mitty doesn't just "have a self-esteem problem" or anything mealy-mouthed or psychobabblish like that, the poor wimp really and truly "is not" deserving of respect, exactly like two plus two "is not" five.

"Do either Ba‘this or Bushies consciously aim at a mental or figurative emasculation of those they chose to domineer over?" Such is the question that I think of at once in eastern Massachusetts, but that is perhaps not quite what a lady Ph.D. in a post-aggression Dept. of Psych. at Brave New Baghdád would wonder about. My question is about Pol. Sci., and therefore about what patients do (more or less) on purpose. Her own branch of social scientism has come, in Westistan at least, to worry more about about "subcognitive factors," so to speak of the unspeakable, thus to attempt to know the unknowable mysteries of das Unbewusste! The late Bruno Bettleheim seemed to think at the end of life that the Dept. of Psych. could become far more intellectually respectable if only the inmates thereof could avoid clinical jargon suggestive of white-coated technocrats suffering from Physics Envy or Medicine Envy and use more ordinary language instead. Mme. (or Mlle.) R. al-Azawi may be trying to carry out that project. In isolation her "the power balance has shifted" might be pure Pol. Sci., and nothing to do with Psych. at all. For that matter, "a man who doesn’t work is not deserving of respect" seems about as ordinary and untechnocratic as human language can get, unless moralizers be supposed to have a secret technique that can dispense with jargon.

But of course she is on a different wave-length from ours, even as a moralizer. The lady Ph.D. wants at the end of the day to address "family breakups and domestic violence," matters almost certainly far too petty to draw the attention of either dictatorial Ba‘thí thugs or Big Managerial GOP geniuses, even supposing that either of these ever formally resolved to "divide and conquer," itself a dubious hypothesis, when both these crews seem to have in fact to proposed to themselves more like "unite and conquer."

Saddám I was doubtless more closely in touch with authentic indig opinion than George XLIII can ever hope to be, yet even the Yalie lad belongs to a Party that made sure its own holy Homeland was not afflicted with anything so unnatural as an "Equal Rights Amendment" in the interest of uppity females. Dubyapologists have scrambled to offer perhaps 101 different Boy-'n'-Party neo-rationales for the aggression of March 2003 by now, yet feminism simply as such has not been among them -- unless I missed it as their kaleidoscope of self-justifications rapidly flickered past.

In any case, the anecdotal evidence is lots of fun on a stand-alone basis, even without any admixture of tertiary educationalism at all:

For many men in Baghdad who are relegated to their homes, the inability to provide for their families or go out of the house is a demeaning experience. (...)

Thamir Hassan, 55, is a resident of Baghdad's Jihad neighbourhood. He quit his job because of safety concerns, and his wife, a teacher, became the sole breadwinner. Hassan said he was depressed and no longer had authority over his children, who turned to their mother instead. "It’s an early death, because I feel useless at home," he said. "I don't know what [the children] are doing, and their mother tries to hide their secrets so that I won't worry."

Dawood al-Jubori, 58, is a retired man living a similarly restricted life in Baghdad's al-Elam district. He has to rely on his wife to shop and handle the household bills, which are often paid at ministries. "It is difficult to have the woman doing everything, but my three sons and I have no other choice," he said. "I want things to get back to normal."


But I fear I'm incorrigible about Politique d'abord!. How, precisely, has the extremist GOP's invasion-basin' led to a situation out in the happy Land of Peace and Freedom where "household bills ... are often paid at ministries?" Do the AEIdeologues know about that? And what has the Big Management Party's guru, or former guru, their Herr Prof. Dr. Chas. Murray, to say about arrangements that seem so obviously dependency-inducin'? Might it be that some of these 'bills' are really more like, if you'll kindly pardon my neo-Semitic, demands for br*b*s?

Seriously at cross purposes with lady Ph.D.'s from aggression-based Psychology Departments am I, alas. And when it comes to that second anecdote, I'm even incorrigibler still. "Thamir Hassan" does not yield at once to my amateur and vicarious "sectarianism." Is the name Thámir or Thamír, is the bearer of the name a (displaced) Natural Master or only some accomplice of poor praeternaturally exalted M. al-Málikí? But give me "Dawood al-Jubori, 58" and I believe I know where I stand sectarianismwise and I am, rather dreadfully, aware of what neocolonial personnel unit DJ58 probably yearns for under its own rubric of "get back to normal." Not exactly Saddám Redux, hopefully, but nothing much to do with discouraging "family breakups and domestic violence," either.

All the most self-approving gentry assure me that it's a serious no-no to think about our aggression and occupation policy like that. Crawfordites and Blairites assure me that my Uncle Sam's neo-liberateds, apart from a few oddball exceptions, take a cui servire est regnare of their neo-liberation. Oh what a sweetness to be shipwrecked in that sea! To be briefly (and of course only analogically!) "emasculated" by Tony and George will be only the briefest of preludes to full initiation into The Higher Manhood, even perhaps initiated into all the Big Management secrets of the Harvard Victory School!

Unit DJ58 thinks that's all "abnormal" tripe and baloney, and so do I, although our notions of GOP tripe and baloney agree far more closely than our ideas of what an ideal normalcy with the militant and extremist GOP nowhere in sight would be like.

More abstractly put, is the State somehow intrinsically a macho phenomenon, a permanent locus of extremism and militarism, always more engaged in stern preëmptive retaliations abroad -- "A perpetual h*rd-*n," even, as one might venture to express the paternal vision of the Wicked State in neo-Semitic? -- than in any maternal fosterings at home?

With both Ba‘thís and Busheviki, some such nightmare vision is probably ineluctable. All the same, it doesn't strictly follow from the textbook, which only said that the State is to have "a monopoly of legitimate violence," without any specification of what ends such a monopoly is for. To accommodate Psych. Dept. terminology, the Legitimate State (as traditionally conceived in Westistan) possesses a monopoly of uncontestable, or anyway, not-to-be-contested, violence, and therefore sets up in loco parentis. The State is to be as formidable to its subjects as all-wise parents ten feet tall are to ignorant kiddies, or as Rancho Crawford really is to Green Zone collaborationist pols, and idly wishes to be to "terrorists." That's in the textbook, more or less, that the State should be a Great Parent. Unfortunately, the textbook doesn't specify which parent, whether the Textbook State is to be a Mommy parent or a Daddy parent.

Perhaps personnel unit DJ58 might, after due reflection, conclude that what's happening to it under the invasive GOP yoke that it bitterly dislikes is not an "emasculation" but an "infantilization." 'Twould be a better analysis, for Pol. Sci. purposes, although the Dept. of Psych. may complain that it's only a renaming proposed. 'Tis far more than that, as it seems to me: if the alien Yoke of Imposition be conceived as imposed upon incompetent minors rather than upon manhood-challenged adult males, a broader panorama opens to the political eye at once. All those females out shopping, or paying "bills" at "ministries" whilst their mates cower at home under the bed, can be reincorporated in a plausible solidarity at once. The Kennebunkport-Crawfordites naturally like little occupied girls ("sugar and spice and everything nice") far better than they like little occupied boys, whom they account much more likely to make troubles.

The way to defeat aggressor intentions seems easy and evident: just stick together, males and females both, and everybody adult unanimously refuse ever to accept bein' treated as mere children by the 566/640 Yalie and its Big Management Party minions.

Maybe that's not the WHOLE way, to be sure, but unless that is the first step, I can hardly imagine any way towards eventual success and victory for the unlawfully invasionized the least bit likely to work. First comes "stick together," and only after that everything else. This is not a word some off-the-map Mr. McCloskey thought of just yesterday, it is the word of Ibn Khaldún, is it not, his very word ‘asabiyya , the word of the ever-glorious Founder of All Global Sociology?

Allow me to recommend that word in the present quagmire. Let the horn of that word be exalted first, and then after that seemingly discouraging, or even contradictory, words like "Violence Causes Gender Role Swap" will probably fit into the Soc. Sci. Big Picture readily enough.

04 July 2007

‘Alí al-Wardí at Wingnut City

The distinguished Iraqi historian and sociologist ‘Ali al-Wardi argues that Bedouin culture formed the bedrock of Iraqi society. Characterizing Bedouin culture, he writes, are three elements: tribalism, raiding, and chivalry. Each of these elements is defined by the concept of taghálub (predominance). The Bedouin individual seeks to persuade by the force of his tribe, his personal strength, and his sense of superiority. Because of a lack of rules to adjudicate conflict, Bedouins use force to avenge transgressions. This, Wardi argues, explains why there is near permanent war in Bedouin society. "War in the desert is the reality; peace is a fleeting phenomenon," he writes.


The focus on poetry as the primary medium of cultural expression is not without drawback. In an editorial in the same issue of Al-Yanbú‘, Sunur Anwar invokes the words of Wardi, who writes that the emphasis upon poetry prevents many Iraqis from interpreting events rationally. As Wardi explains, "from its early days, Arabic poetry does not reflect the truth in portraying events." When using poetic devices, there is no embarrassment or shame if untruthful.

Escalating violence has led to introspection among intellectuals. Salah Hasan al-Silawi, who describes himself as a poet and media specialist, wrote in the government daily As-Sabáh that violence characterizes the Iraqi personality and that "no one Iraqi differs from another Iraqi except in the amount of violence that characterizes his behavior."


Conclusions

Iraqi culture presents a paradox: On the one hand, it lays claim to the achievements of great civilizations while, on the other hand, modern Iraqi history is marked by violence, war, and discord.

Perhaps Wardi's explanation is best: Iraqi culture is essentially a Bedouin culture that regards peace as temporary but conflict as permanent. ‘Abd al-Khaliq Husayn has accepted that Iraqis are "a people of discord and duplicity," differing from other peoples in their propensity to excessive violence. Regrettably, much of this violence is apparent today but has been channeled by Islamist elements toward intellectuals and cultural figures.

03 July 2007

'a new form of cooperation'

Im Osten nichts neues.

Operation 'Silly Codeword' continues, as always, to be in progress in the interests of Republican Party courage-challengedness. As always, there's a little whiff of blowback reported by the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust that, as often, gets re-echoed at Slogger City , where it is promoted to the honourary or brevet rank of an insider secret about the Brave New "Iraq":

Operation Arrowhead Ripper, currently underway in Diyala, is joining the US Army and the Iraqi government forces in a battle against al-Qa‘ida and anti-US groups in the province, especially around the city of Ba‘quba.

According to al-Hayat however, the US is also fighting side by side with Iraqi tribal militias who have chosen to side with the Americans in their fight against al-Qa‘ida; furthermore, Iraqi insurgent groups that are engaged in a battle against US forces may be joining hands with the Americans to combat the extremist group and the “Islamic State in Iraq.”

The pan-Arab, London-based newspaper described a new form of cooperation between the US forces and local tribes and their militias. Al-Hayat said that the US tends to employ a “special Iraqi military unit, that it armed and trained” to support its operations in Shi'a area; and solicits help from the official Iraqi armed forces for operations in the Sunni regions, “but (the US) has lately been recruiting clans and armed (groups)” in its recent actions.

The use of tribes by US forces, al-Hayat claimed, “is causing an acute conflict among tribes and armed groups.”

In what concerns insurgent groups, the paper claimed that the “Brigades of the 1920 revolution,” which are responsible for hundreds of attacks against the US and British forces, but are also engaged in a bitter rivalry with al-Qa‘ida, have suffered a split when a wing from the movement elected to fight alongside the Americans against extremist Wahhabis. The armed group insists that it does not take part in the US-led anti-Qa‘ida operations in Ba‘quba and elsewhere, but “close sources” to the organization told al-Hayat that “one of the wings (of the 1920 Brigades) and tribal fighters have joined the American campaign.”

The situation among tribes is far more complex, the paper said. US aid has made certain tribes (namely those associated with the US and the government) extremely powerful, and has given them quasi-control over large areas in Anbar and elsewhere. As a result, tribal competition and enmities are flaring.

A rivalry has emerged between Sheikh ‘Abd al-Sattar Abu Risha, head of the pro-government “Anbar Salvation Council” and Sheikh ‘Ali Hatim al-Dulaimi, who is active in “the Anbar Awakening Council,” also an anti-Qa‘ida organization.

Al-Hayat reported that al-Dulaimi accused Sheikh Abu Risha and his “Anbar Salvation Council” of “abusing his authority” and “employing excessive force against civilians, and using the police to perform thefts.” The paper said that ‘Abu Risha defended his measures, affirming that they are directed exclusively at al-Qa‘ida.”

The paper quoted al-Dulaimi as saying that “(Abu Risha) fights al-Qa‘ida during the day and leads gangs of thieves during the night.” Al-Hayat opined that the situation could lead to “tribal confrontations” in Anbar if these conflicts were not resolved.


Well, you see, Mr. Bones, it's like this: some of the local Sunnintern franchise out there in the happily neoliberated Land of Peace and Freedom are Awakeners and some of 'em are Saviours, some of 'em belong to "tribes" while others of 'em have formed kinship-baseless ad hoc "armed bands," rather comparable to those of the paleface Party invasionites. So, what with one thing and another, how should confrontations not eventuate?

If you take a really deep interest in the identity of indiscernibles, or maybe the indiscernibility of identicals, you might wonder with me exactly how the AAPT journalist gentry draw the line between an "organization" and one "wing" of an organization. Could if have anything to do with those slightly mysterious sounding "plurals of paucity," jumú‘ al-qilla, that Dr. Wright briefly alludes to at I 234b?

I recall vaguely that the Anglo-Saxon Laws of King Aethelhwaetefer laid it down that zero to six thugs are plain vanilla thugs, seven to twenty-nine thugs are a (robber) "band," whilst thirty to infinity thugs constitute an "army." That plan may have worked admirably back in Century II/VIII or III/IX, but nowadays there's the problem of how can anybody tell for sure from the website?

==

The use of tribes by US forces, al-Hayat claimed, “is causing an acute conflict among tribes and armed groups.”


You might want to make a memorandum of that bit, Mr. Bones. The hysteron proteron is very, very characteristic of the Sunnintern and Sunnintern groupies, yet it is also endemic in the mentalité du Levant more generally. Poor Uncle Sam is forever being unfairly accused of creating such acute conflicts from scratch in order to "divide and rule." The fact of the matter appears to be that Levantines only notice how fragmented they have been all along after getting invasionized by culturally unaccountable extraterrestrials. "One touch of Dubya makes the whole [Semite] World kin," as it were, taking "kin" in Mr. Eugene O'Neil's sense, the people one loves best to squabble with. Also Dr. Johnson's sense, "The Irish, sir, are a fair people, they never speak well of one another." [1]

Why can't the Semites be more "unfair" -- more like the Scotch, converting themselves into a mutual assistance trust when invaded from Mars or Greater Texas rather than making every day a festival of intramural recrimination? Even at the Anglo-Arabian Press Trust it is taken for granted that increased rather than diminished ‘asabiyya is the normal and natural human reaction to outsiders meddlin'. They take it for granted, but somehow one scarcely ever catches them actually doing it.

But God knows best what that "somehow" is and how it works.





____
[1] 'Tis tasteless to blow one's own horn, of course, yet facts are facts, and I believe it is a fact the we O's and Mac's have complained less about "divide and rule" in eight centuries than Semite World has in the last eight decades.

Concerning "contemporary-sounding references "

Aha, Mr. Bones, have you ever seen this?



Who promised whom THAT exactly? (Omit cheap-shot joke about the "GasPain Sea" here.)

The opposite-but-unequal Levantine hyperchauvinist crew have a map to match that one, naturally, but there is no need to fuss about linking and displaying it when it is so easy to imagine the cartoon portrayal of a polar bear in a blizzard captioned "The Jewish State."

Ah, where would extremists be, were there no counterextremists? And where, for that matter, would complacent holier-than-ye Laodicaeans like you and me be either? The beginning of political wisdom is not to like anybody very much, and the beginning of that is to have lots of reservations about oneself. Upon so firm a foundational rock as that build the wise, shunning the shifty sands of narcissism and self-preferentialism.

Speaking of antinarcissism, I believe I have already recommended
M. ‘Alí al-‘Alláwí's book
? It is unquestionably the best account yet of how militant GOP extremism grabbed Mesopotamia. It's so good I'm even half tempted to wonder if anything better has been written about the grabbing of Palestine. That speculation must be wrong, I suppose, since there have been twenty or thirty times as many years of book writing. On the other hand, that's also twenty or thirty times as long to get bored and disgusted with the all the facts of the Palestine snatch and all the books about half those facts, the eternal enemy's dotty maps and all.

Neocomrade E. Luttwak has recently taken to suggesting that the faith-crazed Levant might benefit from a course of Dr. Moynihan's Benign Neglect™ therapy. Coming from a Boy-'n'-Party direction, such a suggestion must be scrutinized sharply: is the suggester merely trying to hush up how disastrously his own Party's Big Management has discredited itself since March 2003? Yet viewed from a reasonable distance -- perhaps West Neptune might do -- there is much to be said for the Luttwak proposal. In the long run, it is bound to prevail, for the chances that Princess Posterity and her court historians will consider either the Palestine Snatch or the scene of the crime the axis of all human events from 1945-20?? are just about zero. There is a world elsewhere!

E. Luttwak has to minimize the importance of the Gulf of Petroleum as well as that of the Palestine Snatch for his own purposes, and there he skates on thinner ice: Her Royal Highness's historians are far, far more likely find a global Epoch of Fossil Fuel a convenient tool to think with than any petty parochial "Age of Zionism." I flatter myself they'll agree with me that the only really remarkable thing about the Palestine Snatch was its timing: had the snatch process begun a century or so earlier, it would have gone through without a hitch and no annalist of the world would be so mad as to suppose it especially central to anything of universal importance whatsoever.

However, it happened belatedly when it happened, and so here we are, perennially tempted to centralize it. "Pan-Arabism" has been invented, or reinvented, largely to centralize the Palestine Snatch from the snatchee side, and so has "Western Civilization" on behalf of the snatcher faction. To be sure, all or most Arabophones do have certain things in common over and above the language of the angels, and there really was an intellectual history of Latin-rite Europe that might be looked into. There exist real things for these labels to be pasted on, no doubt about it, but the objects they are usually affixed to are only fantasy cartoon balloons of the IDEAL DOG blown up by Palestine Snatch people, whether snatchers or snatchees, only the dog the tail wishes it was attached to, that perfect "master" whom the tail people very dearly wish they could reliably wag -- as they relentlessly attempt to wag the really existing dog.

A stiff dose of Dr. Moynihan's salts would do all the Levantine Tail Folks no harm at all, Palestine snatchers and Palestine snatchees both alike. Doubtless if all decent political adults, "Western-civilized" or "pan-Arab" or resident on West Neptune, sternly boycott and ignore the clamorous Levantine tailmongers, they won't actually go away, -- yet perhaps they'll learn a little humility, maybe even get a glimmer of antinarcissism? It seems on balance an experiment worth trying, this of Neocomrade Luttwak's. Sixty years of continual attention to Palestine Snatch tailmongers has produced an outcome "on the ground" so lousy that it seems unlikely that any other therapy could fail worse than two generations of constant attention therapy has failed. Why not give benignly neglectful Moynihanianity a whirl instead? What's to lose?

Not a hard question. What's to lose is, rather trivially, the familiar status quo, and vastly more significantly, the flattery of our traditional flatterers, all those wannabe-dog-wagging "friends" of Western Civilization and of the denizens of "PanArabia," wherever that geography-unheard-of province may be located. [1] Flattery is delightful. One need not necessarily jump at once to the moralists' "Flattery is deceitful," but unless we have the possibility of making that jump in mind continually as we scrutinize, we do not scrutinize as decent political grown-ups properly ought to.

Any disengagement from cheapjack Levantine tale-mongering and tail-mongering (and map-mongering) about the Palestine Snatch thus requires at least a small degree of improvement of "our" moral discernment. That is no easy business, neither in Westistan nor in PanArabia. The tribunal of Princess Posterity will, as I anticipate, be not much interested in our fixation on the Palestine Snatch considered as a step in the Moral Progress of the Human Race. We shall all have lived back in the Dark Ages, from Her Royal Highness's point of view, and we shall have thought of the Palestine Snatch as Dark Agers naturally would have thought, so "Why condemn any of these quaint sweet puppies, whether Palestine snatchers or Palestine snatchees? It's not as if any of them knew or could know right from wrong in 2007 the way every schoolboy does nowadays in 3452!"

I back myself far out on a "liberal" limb, and I know it, to appeal to Princess Posterity like this, to propose that everybody now alive should pander to what the year of religionism 2917/3542 may think of "us" retrospectively and try proleptically to shape up and toe the line accordingly.

Alas, I can do no other! When one wants one's own judgments to be confirmed and endorsed by all the best judges of opinions, and one has also detected some occasional faint signs of moral progress in the human race, how should all the best judges NOT be located somewhere off in cloudy Futurity? On the other hand, the way all the partisan scribblers for Wingnut City. and for the Tel Aviv statelet, and for PanArabia write liberalism down not just as treasonous but as contemptible --"Here's McCloskey again [yawn] threatenin' us with his silly scarecrow of a 'Princess Posterity'!" -- well, perhaps we should reconsider our sightings, Mr. Bones. What were those "occasional faint signs of moral progress"? Rehearse them to me once again, sir!

To make up a theory on the fly, this dimwit antiliberalism supposes that no wicked liberal grows up wanting to be a Football Hero, a Big Management Quarterback, even if possible a Richard Bruce Cheney, just like all normal red-blooded blue-state youngsters wanna grow up to be! (And derive M. Bin Ládin parallely the same way over amongst THEM.) "The wretched liberal weed wants to grow up to be some kind of 'West Neptune' REFEREE rather than a respectable team player! How is such an incredible perversion as that to be stamped out once and for all?"

One begs pardon of God! KECEKE. Happy days.




____
[1] PanArabia surely must be located somewhere in the former Blairistan, near or on the Thames, this centre that all the floods of Estuary Arabic commentary emanate from. But as to more exactly than that, why, God knows best!

01 July 2007

The Case for Immoderation

In one sense, the silly season of GOP invasion and occupation policy really only began about the same time as the far-famed Surge of '07™. Before that, ignorance and incompetence were splendidly paraded by the Big Management Party and its Boy, but nothing that qualified as silly happened in the technical and military course of their aggressions in the former Iraq. Genuine silliness was confined to Mr. Karl Rove's continual quest for "milestones," artefacts which were always easy enough to erect and march the Party's troops by -- artefacts far, far easier to locate than Mr. Anthony Blair's forty-five minute terror-tipped specials, one might add. Once located, however, Rovean milestones invariably turned out as good as useless for purposes of Boy-'n'-Party agitation and propaganda. [1]

The sideshow of them sellin' their "war" rather than fightin' it qualified as genuinely silly. Was it not allegorically prefigured in a well-known pantomime routine involving "Charlie Brown", "Lucy", and an anonymous football? Or to roll our own, suppose the original Kiddie Krusaders, under the command of stout Sir Galahad de la Yale, to be wandering around in the traditional magic forest of Malloryshire, except that on this particular outing, the peerless juvenile knights discover a Holy Grail about every fifteen minutes. Every single one of them made -- nay, "crafted" -- of Styrofoam, naturally.

It's an old joke, but none the worse for that. In comic strips, and allegedly in conjunction with the House of Bourbon, the football joke can be stretched out forever. When it comes to the House of Kennebunkport-Crawford, however, it looks as if the end of the football joke came sometime last fall, probably a bit before rather than after what Boy and Party must consider one of their blacker Tuesdays, 7 November 2006. There was a brief period of transitional disarray that may be roughly dated as beginning with George XLIII's brief flirtation with the anti-Islamophalangitarian tripe and baloney of his own base and vile and ending with his petulant rejection of the Hambaker product, even though (or perhaps precisely because?) the ISG report was at least half the work of credentialled GOP geniuses. In between came not only the Congressional elections but also the autoleakage of Master Steven Hadley's amazin'ly fatuous "trip report" and of Rumsfeld's Last Memo. In between came also Rear-Col. F. Kagan's excogitation of the far-famed and ever immortal Surge of '07™. More recently, if it has not quite been "all Surge™ all the time" with the US aggression faction, it has come pretty close.

Whether or not the Boy-'n'-Party Surgin'™ has accomplished anything permanent, or anything much temporary either, out in the happy and neoliberated Land of Peace and Freedom is not an easy question. One part of the new silly season show is Freddy and the rest of the kaganiyya scribblin' half a dozen polemics a day in defense of their shiny new toy. This propaganda offensive provokes a certain amount of counterscribbling in the intellectually respectable press that is clearly predicated on the assumption that militant Republican Surgin'™ cannot possibly hope to accomplish anything. Since that assumption does not commend itself to me as self-evident in the first place, I fear that when the MSM fiends offer specious proofs of it garnished with body counts and opinion polls and other such paraphernalia to rebut the Bani Kagan's ditto, both alike must be pronounced silly-season phenomena.

The exact merits of militant extremist Surgin'™ are quite impossible to evaluate impartially at this juncture. The fact that the braniac schemes of the kaganiyya and of the PC boondocks team, Petraeus and Crocker, have only been partially implemented thus far is almost a trifle compared to the impossibility of making out what those schemes are. How is one to decide whether the occupationmongers are makin' any progress or not, when there is no clear sign what their destination is, which direction is "forward" for them? Suppose they actually achieve a Brave New Occupation, wherein would the bravery of it consist?

The general bad attitude of the respectable press may be partially forgiven insofar as it is perfectly plain that more blood and gore, and intensified sectarianism, and cabinet crises in the latest collaborationist neorégime, and so on and so forth are developments that distinctly do not look like progress is bein' made by GOP Surgists™, whereas discerning what does look like progress, or what would look like progress, should it ever take place, is a hundred times more difficult, Rear-Col. Freddy's verbal barrages of burblin' bullshit to the contrary notwithstanding.

All the same, it will not do for the MSM to fail to distinguish a conjecture ("Surgism™ will not work") from an axiom ("Surgism™ can not possibly work.")


So, then, one must say "It's too early for anybody to tell," even though that is exactly what the neocomrades of the aggression faction want to hear said, and even though the date on the calendar is far from the main reason why nobody can tell unless she's some kind of jerk, or ideologue, or blindly loyal Party lemmin'.

Which brings us to their Neocomrade T. Donnelly, writin' for their Weekly Standard, about their Senator Richard Lugar:

The most notable defeat last week in Washington was the speech given by Richard Lugar, the senior statesman and senator from Indiana and voice of moderate Republicanism. On Monday, Lugar announced that he had concluded that the surge was irrelevant: "The prospects that the current surge strategy will succeed . . . are very limited within the period framed by our own domestic political debate." And while President Bush may want to hang tough, "the resulting contentiousness with Congress would make cooperation on national security issues nearly impossible." That is, Bush's commitment to victory is disrupting Lugar's desire to restore bipartisanship.


("Defeat in Washington" is rhetorically a balance to "improving the battlefield situation in Baghdad and the surrounding towns" in the scribbler's preceding paragraph, the first of his article. No details whatsoever are provided about the alleged improvement, so let's just pass it over, shall we?)

Fortunately one does not have to pronounce the distinguished gentleman from Indiana either a jerk or an ideologue or a mere Party lemmin': he does not profess to know whether militant extremist GOP Surgism™ works or not. He speaks as if he had worked it out on a spreadsheet both ways, Surgism™ works perfectly and Surgism™ works not at all, and found both bottom lines unacceptable.

That was, of course, my own "as if." Neocomrade T. Donnelly thinks the Senator is a gland-baser like himself, even as I insinuate that he's a brain-baser who probably goes in for spreadsheets and the like: "Bush's commitment to victory is disrupting Lugar's desire to restore bipartisanship." Only a desire, you see, only a sentiment, a whim, inspired Lugar's treasonable speech, there was nothin' of any real importance behind it. "So let's just pass it over, shall we?"

And that is more or less what the neocomrade does. After a paragraph of unrebutted scraps of quotation from Mr. Lugar, all of a sudden we are face to face with the witch Hillary and a freshly gathered group of surrender monkies that calls itself The Center for a New American Security. There is no more transition beween the Republican Senator and the detestable apes of Clinton than "also sounds like," but perhaps we may draw the moral that this is is the bad company that even a regular Boy-'n'-Party kinda guy can fall into if he ever succumbs to mere "desire."

The CNAS exercise in paleface planmongering is of considerable interest, but it can be abused on some other occasion, so let's skip to Senator Lugar's curtain call chez Donnelley:

The image of senatorial probity, Lugar ultimately sounds more like an investor rebalancing his portfolio, selling Iraq and buying Israel-Palestine, than a man thinking about strategy in war. Likewise, the CNAS report is written in the "risk-management" rhetoric of Pentagon planners. There's a complex flow chart that explains their "responsible way forward" transition plan; it includes a little box detailing the possibility of a "contested withdrawal"--that is, what might well happen if, as in the final withdrawal from Saigon, all hell breaks loose. But when you're sure that the "way out" is the only "responsible way forward," defeat is simply an "unfortunate contingency."


It looks as if minds need not be particularly great to think alike, for here is T. Donnelley deployin' what amounts to Mr. McCloskey's spreadsheet figure! He is a bit inconsistent about his (former?) Neocomrade R. Lugar individually, perhaps, for one does not often think of "desire" luring the unwary into "rebalancing their portfolios" instead of, say, howling at the moon, or smashing windows, or invasionizing other peoples' countries because they're feelin' blue and terrorized. (Yet perhaps in the case of Republicans who happen to be economic OnePercenters such a thing may really happen?)

More importantly, though, T. Donnelley thinks of spreadsheets and portfolios and complex flowcharts exactly what a militant extremist glandbaser would be antecedently expected to think.

Conversely, I have the honor to think the this neocomrade makes precisely the sort of case for his own preferred immoderation that any brainbaser would have guessed that he might, namely no case at all. Either your mental knee happens to jerk when Dr. Tom from AEI taps it with little hammers marked "commitment to victory" or "defeat is simply an 'unfortunate contingency'" or it happens not to jerk.

It's not as if there could ever be anything to argue about here, for Pete's sake!


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[1] Were these Potemkin triumphs of yore even worse than useless for extremist Republicanism?

Probably not, because the target audience, Televisionland and the electorate, forgot them very rapidly. Those of us who still remember shows like "The Brat on the Aircraft Carrier" or "The Inky- Fingered Revolution" shudder in esthetic revulsion, as well as political and legal and ethical condemnation, whenever they recur to mind. If everybody in the US were like us, there would be no silliness to Roveism whatsoever.